Race Essentials
Venue: Ellis Park — Henderson, Kentucky
Scheduled Post Time: 5:12 PM CDT
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
Surface: Turf — expected Firm
Purse: $125,000
Eligibility: 3‑Year‑Old Fillies (Stakes)
Weather Forecast
Temperature: 88–92°F
Conditions: Hot, humid summer afternoon
Wind: Light SW winds 5–9 mph
Rain Probability: ~15%
Impact: Firm turf expected; heat favors horses with proven stamina; front‑end speed often holds well on Ellis Park’s summer turf.
Full Field Analysis (By Post Position)
Post 1 — BLUEGRASS BELLE
Morning Line: 6/1 Trainer: Ian Wilkes Jockey: Julien Leparoux Recent Finishes: 3rd, 2nd, 4th Running Style: Mid‑pack stalker
Analysis: Bluegrass Belle draws the rail, which can be advantageous on Ellis Park’s turf if she breaks cleanly. Leparoux excels with patient turf rides, and this filly has shown steady improvement. She lacks elite acceleration but grinds well late. If the pace is honest, she’s a strong candidate for the trifecta and a mild win threat.
Post 2 — SOUTHERN CHARMER
Morning Line: 10/1 Trainer: Dallas Stewart Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Recent Finishes: 5th, 6th, 3rd Running Style: Deep closer
Analysis: Southern Charmer is a late‑running filly who needs pace and racing luck. Hernandez Jr. is excellent at timing late moves, but Ellis Park’s turf often favors tactical speed. She’ll be flying late, but her chances depend heavily on a pace collapse. More of a superfecta filler than a win candidate.
Post 3 — PATCH OF GOLD
Morning Line: 4/1 Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione Recent Finishes: 1st, 2nd, 1st Running Style: Tactical speed
Analysis: Patch of Gold enters in top form, winning two of her last three. Gaffalione is lethal on Ellis turf routes and fits her perfectly. She breaks well, sits second or third, and has a reliable finishing kick. Her consistency and tactical speed make her one of the strongest win threats in the field.
Post 4 — ELLIS PARK PRINCESS
Morning Line: 12/1 Trainer: Wayne Catalano Jockey: Florent Geroux Recent Finishes: 4th, 5th, 2nd Running Style: Mid‑pack
Analysis: Ellis Park Princess is a tricky filly—capable of surprising but inconsistent. Geroux may try to keep her closer to the pace, but she lacks the raw speed of the top contenders. She’s a candidate for the bottom of the trifecta but needs a perfect trip to win.
Post 5 — SUMMER PATCHES
Morning Line: 15/1 Trainer: Tom Amoss Jockey: James Graham Recent Finishes: 7th, 5th, 6th Running Style: Early speed
Analysis: Summer Patches is a pure speed filly who will try to steal the race early. Unfortunately, her recent form suggests she fades badly when pressured. At 1 1/16 miles, she’s likely to be a pace factor but not a finishing threat. Graham will send her aggressively, but she’s more likely to set the table for the closers.
Post 6 — PATCHWORK ROYALTY
Morning Line: 5/2 (Favorite) Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Flavien Prat Recent Finishes: 1st, 1st, 2nd Running Style: Tactical speed / push‑button acceleration
Analysis: Patchwork Royalty is the class of the field and the morning‑line favorite. Her last three races have been outstanding, including two dominant wins. Prat is one of the best turf riders in the country and excels with horses that can sit just off the pace. Patchwork Royalty handles firm turf exceptionally well and has the strongest finishing kick in the race. The horse to beat.
Post 7 — MIDNIGHT PATCH
Morning Line: 8/1 Trainer: Ken McPeek Jockey: Corey Lanerie Recent Finishes: 3rd, 4th, 2nd Running Style: Stalker
Analysis: Midnight Patch is a consistent filly who often hits the board but rarely wins. Lanerie will keep her close to the pace, but she lacks the raw speed of Patchwork Royalty or Patch of Gold. She’s a strong candidate for the trifecta or superfecta, but needs a perfect trip to win.
Post 8 — PATCH ME UP
Morning Line: 20/1 Trainer: John Ortiz Jockey: Declan Cannon Recent Finishes: 8th, 6th, 5th Running Style: Deep closer
Analysis: Patch Me Up is the longest shot in the field. She drops far back early and has a mild late kick. Her running style is poorly suited to Ellis Park’s turf configuration, which favors tactical speed. Cannon will try to save ground and make one run, but she’s unlikely to threaten.
Race Shape & Pace Projection
Early Speed: Summer Patches (5), Patch of Gold (3)
Tactical Speed: Patchwork Royalty (6), Bluegrass Belle (1)
Closers: Southern Charmer (2), Patch Me Up (8)
Expected Pace: Honest Impact: Sets up perfectly for Patchwork Royalty and Patch of Gold.
Betting Odds & Trends
Favorites have won 39% of turf routes at Ellis Park over the past three seasons.
Horses breaking from posts 3–6 have the highest win percentage at 1 1/16 miles.
Tactical speed horses dominate summer turf stakes at Ellis.
