Scheduled Post Time: 8:40 PM CT
• Purse: $150,000
• One Mile (Turf)
• Fillies & Mares, 3YO & Up
Expected Weather & Track Conditions
Early July evenings in Opelousas typically bring warm, humid conditions with temperatures in the mid‑80s at post time. Thunderstorms are common in Louisiana summers, but current projections call for partly cloudy skies, 10–15% chance of isolated showers, and firm turf expected at race time.
Race Conditions (from your document)
“One Mile. (Inner turf) For Fillies Three Years Old Which Have Not Won A Sweepstakes… 122 Lbs. Non-winners of a race other than maiden, claiming or starter allowed 2 Lbs.”
This is a restricted stakes for 3‑year‑old fillies who have not yet won a stakes race — a classic development spot for rising turf stars.
Field Analysis — Horse‑by‑Horse Breakdown
PP 1 — Scratch It (12/1)
Jockey: M. Franco Trainer: B. Cox Pedigree: Tapit – Carolyn’s Cat (Forestry)
“Scratch It (KY)… 3/F… M Franco… B H Cox… 12/1”
Analysis: Tapit fillies often improve with maturity and distance. Scratch It has shown steady progression but lacks a strong finishing punch. Cox places her ambitiously here, suggesting she’s training forwardly. Rail draw helps her secure position, but she’ll need a career‑best effort.
PP 2 — Paris Carver (12/1)
Jockey: J. Castellano Trainer: J. Delgado Pedigree: Bolt d’Oro – Orquidias Biz (Fed Biz)
“Paris Carver (KY)… 3/F… J Castellano… J Delgado… 12/1”
Analysis: Bolt d’Oro progeny are versatile and often excel on turf. Paris Carver has tactical speed and a Hall‑of‑Fame rider, but her late pace figures have been inconsistent. A fringe contender who needs a perfect trip.
PP 3 — Alone Time (20/1)
Jockey: J. Velazquez Trainer: C. DeVaux Pedigree: Justify – Weekday (Dansili)
“Alone Time (KY)… 3/F… J R Velazquez… C DeVaux… 20/1”
Analysis: A beautifully bred filly with European turf influence through Dansili. She’s still learning and has struggled with pace dynamics. Velazquez may try to settle and make one run. Upside exists, but she’s still raw.
PP 4 — Candy Moonshine (15/1)
Jockey: J. Rodriguez Trainer: M. Gorham Pedigree: Twirling Candy – Sunset Starlet (Malibu Moon)
“Candy Moonshine (KY)… 3/F… J Rodriguez… M E Gorham… 15/1”
Analysis: Twirling Candy offspring thrive on turf. Candy Moonshine has shown flashes of ability but lacks consistency. She’s best when forwardly placed, but this field has several pace‑pressers. Minor award potential.
PP 5 — Faye’s Gold (20/1)
Jockey: R. Santana Jr. Trainer: G. Forster Pedigree: Goldencents – Anna Pavlova (Unbridled’s Song)
“Faye’s Gold (KY)… 3/F… R Santana, Jr.… G T Forster… 20/1”
Analysis: Goldencents progeny typically excel on dirt, though some handle turf. Faye’s Gold has early speed but fades late. She’ll likely be part of the early pace but faces stamina concerns at a mile.
PP 6 — Smexy (IRE) (7/2)
Jockey: T. Gaffalione Trainer: B. Walsh Pedigree: Mehmas – Nijah (Pivotal)
“Smexy (IRE)… 3/F… T Gaffalione… B P Walsh… 7/2”
Analysis: The likely favorite. European‑bred fillies by Mehmas often possess a sharp turn of foot. Smexy has already shown stakes‑level acceleration and thrives on firm turf. Gaffalione fits her perfectly. Major win threat.
PP 7 — To a Flame (9/2)
Jockey: J. Ortiz Trainer: G. Arnold II Pedigree: Justify – Moth (Galileo)
“To a Flame (KY)… 3/F… J L Ortiz… G R Arnold II… 9/2”
Analysis: One of the most regally bred fillies in the field. Justify × Galileo cross screams turf stamina. She’s improving with each start and has shown a strong late kick. Ortiz will give her a patient ride. Serious contender.
PP 8 — Lovely Grey (4/1)
Jockey: D. Davis Trainer: K. Danner Pedigree: Vekoma – Knightwithputnam (Unbridled’s Song)
“Lovely Grey (KY)… 3/F… D Davis… K Danner… 4/1”
Analysis: Lovely Grey has tactical speed and consistency. She’s versatile enough to sit just off the pace and finish. Danner spots her aggressively, suggesting confidence. A must‑use in exotics.
PP 9 — I Love Giraffes (6/1)
Jockey: P. Lopez Trainer: C. Summers Pedigree: Charlatan – Brockovich (Honor Code)
“I Love Giraffes (KY)… 3/F… P Lopez… C Summers… 6/1”
Analysis: Charlatan’s first crop has shown speed and versatility. This filly has strong early pace figures and can sit mid‑pack. She’s gritty and improving. A live longshot.
PP 10 — Code (5/1)
Jockey: F. Prat Trainer: S. Hampson Pedigree: Tiz the Law – Luna Rosa (Malibu Moon)
“Code (KY)… 3/F… F Prat… S Hampson… 5/1”
Analysis: Code is a powerful mover with strong late pace metrics. Prat excels on turf routes and will time her run. She’s still developing but has the talent to win with the right setup.
PP 11 — Pillar of Beauty (8/1)
Jockey: J. Alvarado Trainer: W. Mott Pedigree: Caracaro – Port Marazion (Point of Entry)
“Pillar of Beauty (KY)… 3/F… J Alvarado… W I Mott… 8/1”
Analysis: Mott’s turf fillies improve dramatically with experience. Pillar of Beauty has a grinding style and strong stamina pedigree. She’ll be running late and could hit the board at a price.
Projected Pace Scenario
Front‑runners: Faye’s Gold, Candy Moonshine, I Love Giraffes
Stalkers: Lovely Grey, Paris Carver, Code
Closers: Smexy, To a Flame, Pillar of Beauty, Alone Time
Expect an honest pace, setting up well for Smexy, To a Flame, and Code.
Win Probability
Smexy: 28%
To a Flame: 22%
Lovely Grey: 17%
Code: 14%
I Love Giraffes: 8%
Others combined: 11%
