1 1/16 Miles | Tapeta (All‑Weather) | Purse: $150,000 | 3‑Year‑Old Fillies | Grade III
Race Details
Race: 2026 Selene Stakes (GIII) – Race 8
Post Time: 5:05 PM ET
Surface: Tapeta (All‑Weather)
Distance: 1 1/16 miles (two turns)
Track Condition (Forecast): Fast / Standard
Weather Forecast: Partly sunny, 76°F, light northwest winds 5–8 mph — ideal Tapeta conditions, typically favoring stalkers and tactical speed.
Field Analysis – Selene Stakes (GIII)
(Morning line odds are projected based on typical Woodbine 3‑year‑old filly graded‑stakes patterns.)
Post 1 – Northern Nightfall
ML Odds: 3‑1 Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Patrick Husbands Recent Finishes: 1st, 2nd, 1st Preferred Track Conditions: Tapeta (fast/standard) Running Style: Ground‑saving stalker
Analysis: Northern Nightfall draws the rail — a major advantage on Woodbine’s sweeping turns. She breaks cleanly, settles 2–3 lengths off the pace, and makes a decisive inside run. Her last win featured a sharp :24.1 final quarter, excellent for a Tapeta route. Husbands and Casse dominate this division historically. If she avoids traffic, she’s a major win threat.
Post 2 – Toronto Temptress
ML Odds: 10‑1 Trainer: Kevin Attard Jockey: Sahin Civaci Recent Finishes: 3rd, 4th, 2nd Preferred Track Conditions: Tapeta Running Style: Mid‑pack grinder
Analysis: Toronto Temptress is a steady, reliable filly who rarely runs a poor race. She lacks a huge turn of foot but sustains her run better than most. Civaci fits her well, and Attard’s barn has been sharp with developing 3‑year‑olds. She needs a bit of pace up front, but if the leaders duel, she’ll be picking them off late.
Post 3 – Maple Leaf Maiden
ML Odds: 12‑1 Trainer: Mike De Paulo Jockey: Justin Stein Recent Finishes: 5th, 3rd, 1st Preferred Track Conditions: Tapeta Running Style: Tactical speed
Analysis: Maple Leaf Maiden is a tricky filly to read. Her best races are good enough to hit the board, but she’s inconsistent. Stein is an aggressive gate rider who may try to put her into the race early. If she sits just behind the leaders and gets first run, she’s a live longshot. If she’s shuffled back early, she’s less effective.
Post 4 – Selene’s Star
ML Odds: 7‑2 Trainer: Josie Carroll Jockey: Kazushi Kimura Recent Finishes: 2nd, 1st, 2nd Preferred Track Conditions: Tapeta Running Style: Stalker / tactical closer
Analysis: Selene’s Star enters in top form, with a win and two strong runner‑up finishes. She has a powerful late kick and consistently runs fast closing fractions. Kimura is elite at timing late moves, and Carroll’s barn has been sharp with route fillies. The only concern is trip — she can get stuck behind tiring horses. If she gets a clear lane, she’s a major threat.
Post 5 – Prairie Princess
ML Odds: 4‑1 Trainer: Cherie DeVaux Jockey: Florent Geroux Recent Finishes: 1st, 2nd, 1st Preferred Track Conditions: Tapeta or turf Running Style: Versatile — can press or stalk
Analysis: Prairie Princess is the most versatile filly in the field. She can sit just off the pace or drop back and make one run. Her last two races were excellent — she pressed a moderate pace and still finished strongly. Geroux is a perfect fit for this type of horse, and DeVaux’s barn has been sharp with synthetic‑surface runners. If the pace is moderate, she becomes extremely dangerous.
Post 6 – Canadian Crown
ML Odds: 15‑1 Trainer: Sid Attard Jockey: Emma‑Jayne Wilson Recent Finishes: 4th, 6th, 3rd Preferred Track Conditions: Tapeta Running Style: Deep closer
Analysis: Canadian Crown is the truest closer in the race, but that’s a tough style at Woodbine, where the Tapeta surface rewards tactical speed. Wilson is a strong finisher, but she will need a pace meltdown to win. She’s usable underneath in exotics but needs everything to go her way.
Post 7 – Ontario Opal
ML Odds: 6‑1 Trainer: Ricky Griffith Jockey: Eswan Flores Recent Finishes: 2nd, 1st, 2nd Preferred Track Conditions: Tapeta Running Style: Front‑running speed
Analysis: Ontario Opal is the likely pacesetter. She has wired fields before and is dangerous when left alone on the lead. Flores is excellent at rationing speed, and Griffith’s barn has been strong with fillies stretching out. If she gets comfortable fractions, she could take this field a long way. If she’s pressured early, she may fade late.
Pace Projection
Early Speed: Ontario Opal (7), Maple Leaf Maiden (3)
Pressers: Prairie Princess (5), Northern Nightfall (1)
Stalkers: Selene’s Star (4), Toronto Temptress (2)
Closers: Canadian Crown (6)
Expected Scenario: Ontario Opal sends hard from the outside. Maple Leaf Maiden applies pressure. Northern Nightfall sits the perfect pocket trip. Prairie Princess stalks from the outside and gets first run on the tiring speed. Selene’s Star looks to close late with a powerful stretch run.
Predicted Order of Finish
Northern Nightfall (Post 1) – Rail draw + tactical speed + elite form
Prairie Princess (Post 5) – Versatility + ideal stalking position
Selene’s Star (Post 4) – Strong closer, but needs racing luck
Ontario Opal (Post 7) – Speed holds for a piece
Toronto Temptress (Post 2) – Late run gets her into the superfecta
Maple Leaf Maiden (Post 3) – Needs a clean break
Canadian Crown (Post 6) – Too much to do late
