Track: Churchill Downs — Louisville, Kentucky
Post Time: 3:23 PM ET
Distance: 1 mile (Dirt)
Purse: $750,000
Expected Weather & Track Conditions
While entries do not include a forecast, early May in Louisville typically brings:
Temperatures: mid‑60s to low‑70s
Wind: light
Rain: moderate chance but usually scattered
Projected Track: Fast, based on seasonal norms
(This is climate‑based inference, not a race‑day forecast.)
Full Field Analysis
PP 1 — Englishman
ML Odds: 3/1
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Pedigree: Maxfield – In It for the Gold
Profile: Undefeated colt with two blowout wins by open lengths. Tactical speed and strong finishing power make him a major win threat.
PP 2 — Trouble Calling
ML Odds: 5/1
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Gregory Foley
Pedigree: Dialed In – Into Trouble
Profile: Consistent grinder with improving figures. Saez is aggressive and fits his forward style.
PP 3 — Work
ML Odds: 50/1
Jockey: Edwin Maldonado
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Pedigree: American Pharoah – With Mischief
Profile: Longshot with limited stakes success. Needs a major leap forward.
PP 4 — Secured Freedom
ML Odds: 20/1
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Pedigree: Practical Joke – Securely
Profile: Honest colt with tactical speed. Velazquez boosts his chances.
PP 5 — Stop the Car
ML Odds: 20/1
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Pedigree: Maximum Security – Pussyfoot
Profile: Improving but inconsistent. Needs pace and a clean trip.
PP 6 — Crude Velocity
ML Odds: 5/2 (Morning‑line favorite)
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Pedigree: Beau Liam – Sweetnsour Kitty
Profile: Undefeated and dominant in allowance company. Baffert excels with one‑turn milers. The horse to beat.
PP 7 — Crown the Buckeye
ML Odds: 6/1
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Mike Maker
Pedigree: Yaupon – Feisty Tomboy
Profile: Versatile and consistent. Prat is elite in one‑turn stakes. A major contender.
PP 8 — Creole Chrome
ML Odds: 8/1
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Joe Sharp
Pedigree: Volatile – Funny Moon
Profile: Sharp recent form and strong speed figures. Irad elevates his chances.
PP 9 — Lockstocknpharoah
ML Odds: 20/1
Jockey: Edgar Morales
Trainer: Thomas Drury Jr.
Pedigree: American Pharoah – Lockstep
Profile: Honest gelding but outclassed at this level.
PP 10 — Great White
ML Odds: 12/1
Jockey: Alex Achard
Trainer: John Ennis
Pedigree: Volatile – Kelly Bag
Profile: Improving gelding with upside. A live longshot.
PP 11 — One More Freud
ML Odds: 15/1
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez
Trainer: Robert Hess Jr.
Pedigree: Tonalist – Freudian Finish
Profile: Consistent and competitive. Could hit the board at a price.
PP 12 — Baytown Dreamer
ML Odds: 50/1
Jockey: Danny Sheehy
Trainer: Paul McEntee
Pedigree: Mendelssohn – Colerful Bride
Profile: Outsider who needs a miracle trip.
Projected Pace Scenario
Early Speed: Crude Velocity, Trouble Calling
Pressers: Englishman, Crown the Buckeye
Closers: Creole Chrome, One More Freud
Expect a fast early pace, favoring tactical stalkers.
Predicted Outcome
Crude Velocity — undefeated, elite connections
Englishman — strong figures, perfect stalking style
Creole Chrome — late kick + Irad
Crown the Buckeye — consistent and dangerous
