Scheduled Post Time: 4:12 PM ET
Surface: Dirt
Distance: 7 Furlongs
Eligibility: NY‑Sired 3‑Year‑Olds
Purse: $150,000
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS
Temperature: 79–82°F
Sky: Mostly sunny
Wind: 6–10 mph from the southwest
Humidity: 55–60%
Track Condition: Fast
Impact:
Speed and tactical speed typically perform well at 7F on a fast Big A surface.
Horses drawn inside often save valuable ground into the turn.
FIELD ANALYSIS — HORSE‑BY‑HORSE BREAKDOWN
Below is a complete analysis of each entrant, including post position, morning‑line odds, recent finishes, running style, and jockey/trainer insight.
POST 1 — Empire’s Firestorm
Morning Line: 4–1 Trainer: Linda Rice Jockey: Jose Lezcano Recent Finishes: 2nd, 1st, 3rd Running Style: Tactical speed
Analysis: Empire’s Firestorm draws the rail, which can be an advantage at 7 furlongs if he breaks cleanly. Rice has been excellent with NY‑sired stakes runners, and Lezcano fits this horse’s stalking style perfectly. His recent speed figures are competitive, and he’s proven at the distance.
Win Chance: Strong contender; must be respected.
POST 2 — Broadway Thunder
Morning Line: 6–1 Trainer: Rudy Rodriguez Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche Recent Finishes: 4th, 2nd, 1st Running Style: Pressing speed
Analysis: Broadway Thunder is a gritty type who sits just off the leaders and grinds home. Carmouche is aggressive out of the gate and may try to secure position early. His figures are slightly below the top choices, but he’s consistent and improving.
Win Chance: Fringe contender; usable in exotics.
POST 3 — Hudson Hero
Morning Line: 10–1 Trainer: Gary Contessa Jockey: Dylan Davis Recent Finishes: 5th, 3rd, 2nd Running Style: Mid‑pack
Analysis: Hudson Hero has been knocking on the door but lacks the finishing punch of the top contenders. Davis will likely try to save ground and make one late run. Needs a pace meltdown to win.
Win Chance: Minor award possible.
POST 4 — City Councilman
Morning Line: 8–1 Trainer: Michelle Nevin Jockey: Manuel Franco Recent Finishes: 1st, 6th, 1st Running Style: Front‑runner
Analysis: A pure speed horse who will absolutely send from the gate. Franco is excellent with front‑running types. If he clears without pressure, he becomes dangerous. However, the 7F distance may test his stamina late.
Win Chance: Live longshot if pace is moderate.
POST 5 — Brooklyn Battalion
Morning Line: 12–1 Trainer: Orlando Noda Jockey: Eric Cancel Recent Finishes: 3rd, 5th, 4th Running Style: Closer
Analysis: A deep closer in a race that doesn’t set up well for his style. He’ll be running late, but the Big A’s 7F configuration often favors horses with tactical speed.
Win Chance: Needs a hot pace; unlikely.
POST 6 — Stallion Sunrise
Morning Line: 7–2 Trainer: Christophe Clement Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Recent Finishes: 1st, 1st, 2nd Running Style: Versatile
Analysis: The morning‑line favorite and the horse to beat. Stallion Sunrise has been dominant in recent starts and owns the best late pace figures in the field. Irad Ortiz Jr. is lethal in NY‑bred stakes races, and Clement has this colt peaking at the right time.
Win Chance: Top contender; deserving favorite.
POST 7 — Queens County Kid
Morning Line: 15–1 Trainer: David Donk Jockey: Javier Castellano Recent Finishes: 6th, 4th, 3rd Running Style: Mid‑pack
Analysis: A steady but unspectacular runner who often finishes evenly. Castellano may try to drop in behind the leaders and save ground, but the class ceiling looks a bit too high here.
Win Chance: Outside chance at a minor placing.
POST 8 — Manhattan Mirage
Morning Line: 9–2 Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velazquez Recent Finishes: 2nd, 1st, 1st Running Style: Stalker
Analysis: Pletcher and Velazquez team up with a colt who has been improving rapidly. Manhattan Mirage has a strong finishing kick and should get a perfect stalking trip from the outside. His figures are just a tick below Stallion Sunrise, but he’s dangerous.
Win Chance: Major threat; strong upset candidate.
PACE PROJECTION
City Councilman (4) sends hard to the lead.
Broadway Thunder (2) and Stallion Sunrise (6) sit just behind.
Empire’s Firestorm (1) and Manhattan Mirage (8) stalk in perfect position.
Closers like Brooklyn Battalion (5) will need a meltdown.
Pace Advantage: Stallion Sunrise (6), Manhattan Mirage (8).
PROJECTED ORDER OF FINISH
Stallion Sunrise (6)
Manhattan Mirage (8)
Empire’s Firestorm (1)
City Councilman (4)
