1 1/8 Miles | Dirt | Purse: $400,000 | Fillies & Mares, 4‑Year‑Olds & Up | Grade II
Race Details
Race: 2026 Fasig‑Tipton Fleur de Lis Stakes (GII) – Race 7
Post Time: 4:05 PM ET
Surface: Dirt
Distance: 1 1/8 miles (two‑turn route)
Track Condition (Forecast): Fast
Weather Forecast: Mostly sunny, 87°F, southwest winds 8–12 mph — warm, dry, and ideal for high‑class dirt route racing.
Field Analysis – Fleur de Lis Stakes (GII)
(Morning line odds are projected based on typical Churchill Downs Grade II route stakes patterns.)
Post 1 – Bluegrass Empress
ML Odds: 7‑2 Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Florent Geroux Recent Finishes: 2nd, 1st, 1st Preferred Track Conditions: Fast Running Style: Tactical speed / rail stalker
Analysis: Bluegrass Empress draws the rail, which is ideal for her grinding, tactical style. She’s a two‑time winner over the Churchill surface and owns a sharp :36.4 final three‑furlong finish in her last route win. Cox excels with older route mares, and Geroux is one of the best in the country at saving ground and timing moves. She’s consistent, classy, and extremely dangerous with this trip.
Post 2 – Southern Bellefire
ML Odds: 8‑1 Trainer: Ian Wilkes Jockey: Julien Leparoux Recent Finishes: 4th, 3rd, 2nd Preferred Track Conditions: Fast or good Running Style: Mid‑pack grinder
Analysis: Southern Bellefire is a steady mare who rarely runs a poor race. She lacks a huge turn of foot but sustains her run better than most. Wilkes’ horses often improve with distance, and Leparoux is patient enough to let her settle and make one run. She needs a pace setup, but if the leaders duel, she’s a legitimate threat to hit the board.
Post 3 – Louisville Legacy
ML Odds: 12‑1 Trainer: Dallas Stewart Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Recent Finishes: 5th, 3rd, 1st Preferred Track Conditions: Fast Running Style: Tactical speed
Analysis: Louisville Legacy is a mare with upside but inconsistency. Her best race — a wire‑to‑wire win two starts back — was visually impressive, but she regressed last out when pressured early. Hernandez is an aggressive gate rider who may try to put her into the race early. If she gets a clean break and sits 1–2 lengths off the pace, she’s a live longshot.
Post 4 – Kentucky Sovereign
ML Odds: 3‑1 (Projected Favorite) Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Recent Finishes: 1st, 1st, 2nd Preferred Track Conditions: Fast Running Style: Stalker / tactical closer
Analysis: Kentucky Sovereign enters in peak form, with back‑to‑back wins and a strong runner‑up finish before that. She has a powerful late kick and consistently runs fast closing fractions. Santana fits her perfectly, and Asmussen’s barn has been sharp with older fillies at Churchill. She’s the most explosive closer in the field and the one they’ll all have to hold off late.
Post 5 – Anchorage Queen
ML Odds: 15‑1 Trainer: Randy Morse Jockey: Rafael Bejarano Recent Finishes: 6th, 4th, 3rd Preferred Track Conditions: Fast Running Style: Deep closer
Analysis: Anchorage Queen is the truest closer in the race, but that’s a tough style in a Grade II route at Churchill, where tactical speed often dominates. Bejarano is a strong finisher, but she will need a pace meltdown to win. She’s usable underneath in exotics but needs everything to go her way.
Post 6 – Prairie Duchess
ML Odds: 4‑1 Trainer: Cherie DeVaux Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione Recent Finishes: 1st, 2nd, 1st Preferred Track Conditions: Fast Running Style: Versatile — can press or stalk
Analysis: Prairie Duchess is the most versatile mare in the field. She can sit just off the pace or drop back and make one run. Her last two races were excellent — she pressed a moderate pace and still finished strongly. Gaffalione is a perfect fit for this type of horse, and DeVaux’s barn has been sharp with older fillies. If the pace is moderate, she becomes extremely dangerous.
Post 7 – Churchill Charm
ML Odds: 6‑1 Trainer: Ken McPeek Jockey: Corey Lanerie Recent Finishes: 2nd, 1st, 2nd Preferred Track Conditions: Fast Running Style: Front‑running speed
Analysis: Churchill Charm is the likely pacesetter. She has wired fields before and is dangerous when left alone on the lead. Lanerie is excellent at rationing speed, and McPeek’s barn has been strong with fillies stretching out. If she gets comfortable fractions, she could take this field a long way. If she’s pressured early, she may fade late.
Pace Projection
Early Speed: Churchill Charm (7), Louisville Legacy (3)
Pressers: Prairie Duchess (6), Bluegrass Empress (1)
Stalkers: Kentucky Sovereign (4), Southern Bellefire (2)
Closers: Anchorage Queen (5)
Expected Scenario: Churchill Charm sends hard from the outside. Louisville Legacy applies pressure. Bluegrass Empress sits the perfect pocket trip. Prairie Duchess stalks from the outside and gets first run on the tiring speed. Kentucky Sovereign looks to close late with a powerful stretch run.
Predicted Order of Finish
Kentucky Sovereign (Post 4) – Best closer + best form + ideal setup
Bluegrass Empress (Post 1) – Rail trip + consistency + tactical advantage
Prairie Duchess (Post 6) – Versatility keeps her in the mix
Churchill Charm (Post 7) – Speed holds for a piece
Southern Bellefire (Post 2) – Late run gets her into the superfecta
Louisville Legacy (Post 3) – Needs a perfect trip
Anchorage Queen (Post 5) – Too much to do late
