Track: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
Scheduled Post Time: 1:12 PM ET
Distance: 5½ furlongs (Turf)
Purse: $600,000
Expected Weather & Track Conditions
While entries do not include a forecast, early May in Louisville typically brings:
Temperatures: mid‑60s to low‑70s
Precipitation: moderate chance but usually light
Wind: mild
Projected Turf Condition: Firm, unless rain develops
(This is based on seasonal norms, not a race‑day forecast.)
Full Field Analysis
All horses, odds, and connections sourced from official entries.
PP 1 — Wendelssohn
ML Odds: 15/1
Jockey: Brian J. Hernandez Jr.
Trainer: Chris A. Hartman
Recent Finish: 7th in the 2026 Count Fleet Sprint (G3)
Profile: A capable sprinter switching back to turf. Has back‑class but must improve sharply to contend. Rail draw helps if he breaks well.
PP 2 — Bear River
ML Odds: 30/1
Jockey: James Graham
Trainer: J. Keith Desormeaux
Recent Finish: 9th in the 2026 Shakertown (G2)
Profile: Longshot with inconsistent form. Needs a pace meltdown and a perfect trip.
PP 3 — My Boy Prince
ML Odds: 5/2 (Co‑favorite)
Jockey: Jose L. Ortiz
Trainer: Mark E. Casse
Recent Finish: 1st in the 2026 Shakertown (G2) with a 108 figure
Profile: Enters in peak form and owns the best last‑out performance in the field. Tactical speed and elite acceleration make him a top win candidate.
PP 4 — Full Disclosure
ML Odds: 30/1
Jockey: Adam Beschizza
Trainer: Amzadali Jehaludi
Recent Finish: 5th in a Keeneland allowance (Apr 18, 2026)
Profile: Honest gelding but outclassed at this level. Best used underneath in supers.
PP 5 — Possiblemente
ML Odds: 10/1
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Trainer: Joe Sharp
Recent Finish: 1st in Turfway AOC (Mar 12, 2026) with a strong 128 figure
Profile: Sharp recent form and a big last‑out number. A live longshot if he transfers synthetic form to turf.
PP 6 — Its Bourbon Thirty
ML Odds: 15/1
Jockey: Luan Machado
Trainer: Jeremiah O’Dwyer
Recent Finish: 8th in the 2026 Shakertown (G2)
Profile: Has speed but fades late against top sprinters. Needs a perfect trip.
PP 7 — Yellow Card
ML Odds: 9/2
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Michael W. McCarthy
Recent Finish: 2nd in the 2026 Shakertown (G2) with a 105 figure
Profile: Ultra‑consistent and always fires. Prat is lethal in turf sprints. A major win threat.
PP 8 — Mondogetsbuckets
ML Odds: 8/1
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer: Chris M. Block
Recent Finish: 3rd in the 2026 Shakertown (G2) with a 105 figure
Profile: Improving gelding with a strong late kick. A must‑use in exotics.
PP 9 — Litigation
ML Odds: 3/1
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer: Brian A. Lynch
Recent Finish: 4th in the 2026 Shakertown (G2) with a 105 figure
Profile: Consistent, classy, and gets Irad. Should sit a perfect stalking trip. A top contender.
PP 10 — Joe Shiesty
ML Odds: 6/1
Jockey: Fernando De La Cruz
Trainer: Eric N. Foster
Recent Finish: 5th in the 2026 Shakertown (G2)
Profile: Hard‑knocking sprinter with competitive figures. Needs to take a step forward to win.
Projected Pace Scenario
Early Speed: Wendelssohn, Its Bourbon Thirty, My Boy Prince
Pressers: Yellow Card, Litigation
Closers: Mondogetsbuckets, Possiblemente
Expect a fast early pace, favoring tactical runners.
Predicted Outcome
My Boy Prince — best last‑out effort, ideal draw
Yellow Card — consistent and dangerous
Litigation — perfect stalking setup
Mondogetsbuckets — late kick for exotics
