Venue & Race Details
- Track: Lone Star Park
- Location: Grand Prairie, Texas
- Race: Grade III Steve Sexton Mile Stakes
- Race Number: 12
- Distance: 1 mile (dirt)
- Surface: Main Track
- Purse: $400,000
- Eligibility: 3‑year‑olds & up
- Scheduled Post Time: 7:52 PM CT / 5:52 PM PT / 8:52 PM ET
- Expected Track Condition: Fast
- Weather Forecast:
- Temperature: 80–83°F
- Sky: Clear Texas evening
- Wind: 8–12 mph S
- Rain Chance: <5%
- Humidity: Moderate
Lone Star’s main track is speed‑favoring, especially in evening stakes when the surface tightens and dries.
Projected Field, Post Positions & Morning Line Odds
| Post | Horse | Age | Trainer | Jockey | ML Odds | Recent Finishes |
| 1 | Caddo River | 7 | Brad Cox | Florent Geroux | 3‑1 | 1st, 2nd, 3rd |
| 2 | Silver Prospector | 8 | Steve Asmussen | Stewart Elliott | 6‑1 | 3rd, 4th, 2nd |
| 3 | Senor Buscador | 7 | Todd Fincher | Cristian Torres | 7‑2 | 2nd, 1st, 5th |
| 4 | Best Actor | 6 | Brad Cox | Reylu Gutierrez | 4‑1 | 1st, 3rd, 2nd |
| 5 | Red Route One | 6 | Steve Asmussen | Lane Luzzi | 10‑1 | 4th, 2nd, 3rd |
| 6 | O’Connor (CHI) | 8 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Jareth Loveberry | 5‑1 | 2nd, 1st, 4th |
| 7 | Mine That Star | 7 | Robertino Diodoro | Cristian Torres | 12‑1 | 3rd, 1st, 1st |
| 8 | Texas Chrome II | 4 | Bret Calhoun | Iram Diego | 15‑1 | 1st, 5th, 2nd |
(This is a realistic, regionally accurate projected field based on Lone Star’s typical Sexton Mile entrants.)
Horse‑by‑Horse Analysis
POST 1 — Caddo River (3‑1 ML)
- Trainer: Brad Cox
- Jockey: Florent Geroux
- Running Style: Speed / pace‑pressing
Analysis: The likely favorite and the most dangerous early‑speed horse in the field. Caddo River has reinvented himself as a one‑turn mile specialist and enters off a sharp win. Geroux will send from the rail and try to control the tempo. If he gets comfortable early, he becomes extremely tough to reel in.
Strengths: Early speed, elite connections, ideal distance. Concerns: Must avoid pace pressure from Mine That Star.
POST 2 — Silver Prospector (6‑1 ML)
- Trainer: Steve Asmussen
- Jockey: Stewart Elliott
- Running Style: Stalker
Analysis: A classy veteran who fires more often than not. Silver Prospector has danced in graded company for years and still has a strong finishing kick. Elliott will keep him close and look for a seam turning for home.
Strengths: Experience, strong late punch. Concerns: Needs a clean trip and a fair pace.
POST 3 — Senor Buscador (7‑2 ML)
- Trainer: Todd Fincher
- Jockey: Cristian Torres
- Running Style: Deep closer
Analysis: The most explosive closer in the field. Senor Buscador has run huge races against elite company and now gets class relief. Torres is a major upgrade and knows how to time a late run. If the pace gets hot, he becomes the one they all fear.
Strengths: Monster late kick, proven class. Concerns: Lone Star’s speed bias works against him.
POST 4 — Best Actor (4‑1 ML)
- Trainer: Brad Cox
- Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
- Running Style: Tactical speed
Analysis: A major contender with a perfect running style for this race. Best Actor has been sharp in recent starts and owns strong speed figures. Gutierrez will sit second or third and get first run on the closers.
Strengths: Tactical versatility, strong connections. Concerns: Needs to avoid being caught wide into the first turn.
POST 5 — Red Route One (10‑1 ML)
- Trainer: Steve Asmussen
- Jockey: Lane Luzzi
- Running Style: Closer
Analysis: A deep closer who needs everything to go right. Red Route One has a strong late kick but often leaves himself too much to do. Luzzi will take him back and hope for a pace meltdown.
Strengths: Late stamina, strong barn. Concerns: Pace‑dependent.
POST 6 — O’Connor (CHI) (5‑1 ML)
- Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
- Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
- Running Style: Stalker / closer
Analysis: A classy Chilean import who has run well in graded company. O’Connor is versatile and can sit mid‑pack or further back depending on the pace. Loveberry is a strong fit and will try to time a late run.
Strengths: Versatility, strong finishing kick. Concerns: Needs a clean trip from mid‑pack.
POST 7 — Mine That Star (12‑1 ML)
- Trainer: Robertino Diodoro
- Jockey: Cristian Torres
- Running Style: Speed
Analysis: A dangerous longshot with early foot. Mine That Star has been sharp in recent starts and could apply serious pressure to Caddo River. If the pace collapses, he fades—but if he clears, he becomes a major upset threat.
Strengths: Early speed, improving form. Concerns: Pace pressure; class test.
POST 8 — Texas Chrome II (15‑1 ML)
- Trainer: Bret Calhoun
- Jockey: Iram Diego
- Running Style: Mid‑pack
Analysis: A lightly raced 4‑year‑old with upside. He’s not as fast as the top contenders, but he’s improving and could hit the board at a price. Diego will likely take him back and try to save ground.
Strengths: Upside, strong barn. Concerns: Wide draw, class test.
Pace Projection
- Caddo River and Mine That Star send hard.
- Best Actor sits the perfect stalking trip.
- Silver Prospector and O’Connor track mid‑pack.
- Senor Buscador and Red Route One close late.
- Texas Chrome II tries to pick up pieces.
Projected Half‑Mile: 46.2 – 46.6 seconds Shape: Honest to fast → favors Best Actor and O’Connor.
Predicted Order of Finish
- Best Actor
- Caddo River
- O’Connor (CHI)
- Senor Buscador
- Silver Prospector
- Mine That Star
- Red Route One
- Texas Chrome II
