Venue: Churchill Downs — Louisville, Kentucky
Post Time: 6:57 PM ET
Distance: 1¼ miles (Dirt)
Purse: $5,000,000
Track Condition Expected: Fast (dry forecast, sunshine aiding track recovery)
Expected Weather
Forecasts indicate:
High near 60°F, mid‑50s at post time
Mostly sunny → partly cloudy
No rain expected This suggests a fast, fair racing surface.
Full Field: Post Positions, Odds, Connections, Analysis
PP 1 — Renegade (4‑1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher • Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Profile: Arkansas Derby winner with elite late kick. Major concern: Post 1 “rail curse”—no winner from this gate since 1986. Still a top‑tier contender.
PP 2 — Albus (30‑1)
Trainer: Riley Mott • Jockey: Manny Franco Wood Memorial winner; improving but faces class test.
PP 3 — Intrepido (50‑1)
Trainer: Jeff Mullins • Jockey: Hector Berrios Has back‑class but winless at three; longshot.
PP 4 — Litmus Test (50‑1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert • Jockey: Martin Garcia Inconsistent; needs major improvement.
PP 5 — Right to Party (30‑1)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek • Jockey: Christopher Elliott Honest but outclassed on figures.
PP 6 — Commandment (6‑1)
Trainer: Brad Cox • Jockey: Luis Saez Florida Derby winner; four‑race win streak; elite contender with tactical speed.
PP 7 — Danon Bourbon (20‑1)
Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe • Jockey: Atsuya Nishimura Japan’s top hope; undefeated; dangerous longshot.
PP 8 — So Happy (15‑1)
Trainer: Mark Glatt • Jockey: Mike Smith Strong tactical speed; fits well.
PP 9 — The Puma (10‑1)
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado • Jockey: Javier Castellano Consistent, high‑value contender; strong speed figures.
PP 10 — Wonder Dean (30‑1)
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi • Jockey: Ryusei Sakai UAE form; needs big step forward.
PP 11 — Incredibolt (20‑1)
Trainer: Riley Mott • Jockey: Jaime Torres Solid but lacks top‑end speed.
PP 12 — Chief Wallabee (8‑1)
Trainer: Bill Mott • Jockey: Junior Alvarado Consistent in major preps; strong exotics player.
PP 14 — Potente (20‑1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert • Jockey: Juan Hernandez San Felipe winner; stamina strong; upset potential.
PP 15 — Emerging Market (15‑1)
Trainer: Chad Brown • Jockey: Flavien Prat Wide draw but historically favorable zone; improving.
PP 16 — Pavlovian (30‑1)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill • Jockey: Edwin Maldonado Longshot; needs pace collapse.
PP 17 — Six Speed (50‑1)
Trainer: Bhupat Seemar • Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Outclassed; minor share at best.
PP 18 — Further Ado (6‑1)
Trainer: Brad Cox • Jockey: John Velazquez Blue Grass winner with field‑best 106 Beyer; major win threat despite wide draw.
PP 19 — Golden Tempo (30‑1)
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux • Jockey: Jose Ortiz Consistent but lacks top speed.
PP 21 — Great White (50‑1)
Trainer: John Ennis • Jockey: Alex Achard AE entry; deep longshot.
PP 22 — Ocelli (50‑1)
Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman • Jockey: Joseph Ramos Replaced scratched Fulleffort; outsider.
Projected Pace & Race Shape
Early Speed: So Happy, Danon Bourbon
Pressers: Commandment, The Puma
Closers: Renegade, Further Ado
Expect a strong early pace, favoring tactical stalkers like Commandment and The Puma.
Predicted Outcome
Commandment (PP6) — best blend of speed, form, and draw
Further Ado (PP18) — elite figures, wide but powerful
The Puma (PP9) — massive value, consistent
Renegade (PP1) — talented but compromised by rail
