Event: Garde I Lonesome Glory Handicap (NSA Grade 1 steeplechase)
Venue: Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct Racetrack), Queens, New York
Post-Time: 1:10 PM ET
Distance and surface: About 2 1/2 miles over hurdles on turf
Purse: $150,000 (older horses, handicap). Note: International cards list this as approximately 4023m, Grade 1, and present comparable purse figures; the U.S. listing is $150,000.
Weather and expected conditions
- Forecast: Mid-70s Fahrenheit at post, light wind 5–10 mph, low chance of showers.
- Track expectation: Firm-to-good turf typical for mid-September in New York; the jump course generally rides fairly, with pace control critical in the middle circuits.
- No material weather concerns are expected to alter race shape.
Field overview and posts
- The field drew nine runners with assigned handicap weights and posts (1–9). Official entries, weights, and connections are below.
Recent form snapshots and track notes
- Distance/surface: This NSA Grade 1 is carded at about 2 1/2 miles; some international cards list it at 2m4f/4023m due to listing conventions, but the U.S. grading and distance for this event are 2 1/2 miles on turf hurdles.
- Purse split (indicative): Winner’s share and placings are consistent with the $150,000 Grade 1 steeplechase scale.
Horse-by-horse analysis
1. Sweet Will (IRE) — 8yo g — 142 lb — J: Freddie Procter — T: Archibald J. Kingsley Jr.
- Recent finishes: Solid graded-level operator with consistent figures against top NSA company; reliable jumper who stays well.
- Profile: Light(er) weight helps; projects a stalking trip from the rail, saving ground through the middle circuits.
- Upside concern: Needs a clear late run; can be one-paced if pace collapses late.
2. Swore — 6yo g — 144 lb — J: Stephen Mulqueen — T: Keri Brion
- Recent finishes: Comes off a last-out win; overall profile shows steady in-the-money efforts this season.
- Profile: Progressive 6yo with tactical speed; Brion’s barn excels placing jumpers at this level.
- Upside concern: Steps up into a salty Grade 1; must prove stamina at the deepest end.
3. Zarak the Brave (FR) — 6yo g — 158 lb — J: Evan Dwan — T: Thomas Garner
- Recent finishes: Dual Grade 1–placed; searching for a top-level U.S. breakthrough after high-class European/NSA efforts.
- Profile: Clear class of the race on paper but shoulders the high weight; best form beats these with clean jumping and a measured mid-race move.
- Upside concern: Concedes 10–16 lb to many rivals; timing of the move is crucial over Aqueduct’s jump course.
4. Bee Well — 5yo g — 142 lb — J: Dan Nevin — T: Archibald J. Kingsley Jr.
- Recent finishes: Honest sort with multiple placings; lightly weighted and paired with a barn that knows the course.
- Profile: Trip horse—can clunk up for a share if the leaders soften each other.
- Upside concern: Needs a career-best to win.
5. Evie’s Prince — 8yo g — 148 lb — J: Bernard Dalton — T: Neil R. Morris
- Recent finishes: Consistent placements; durable veteran with staying power.
- Profile: Rates mid-division; late grind can land him in the frame.
- Upside concern: Faces sharper turn-of-foot rivals; weight is fair but not lenient.
6. Caramelised (GB) — 7yo g — 146 lb — J: Jamie Bargary — T: Leslie F. Young
- Recent finishes: Layoff lines and respectable returns; multiple career wins and competitive ratings.
- Profile: Stays the trip; Young is elite in NSA ranks, and this one often travels kindly.
- Upside concern: Will need rhythm over the middle fences; not always quick to re-accelerate.
7. Hidden Path — 5yo g — 148 lb — J: Conor Tierney — T: Richard J. Hendriks
- Recent finishes: Very steady 1-2-3 record; “track specialist” notes from international cards suggest affinity for this circuit/configuration.
- Profile: Strong each-way credentials; holds form and handles varying paces.
- Upside concern: Weight is on the higher side for his profile; must find clear air late.
8. Welshman — 7yo g — 146 lb — J: Graham Watters — T: Jack Fisher
- Recent finishes: Comes in off a win following consistent efforts; positive trainer-jockey combo signal.
- Profile: Fisher-Watters tandem is always live; tactical, with finishing punch if the top weight falters.
- Upside concern: Needs to jump slickly early to keep preferred spot.
9. Travesuras — 6yo g — 148 lb — J: Gerard Galligan — T: Cyril Murphy
- Recent finishes: Competitive mid-level stakes performer with reliable stamina.
- Profile: Genuine grinder; Galligan is adept at nursing a rhythm over hurdles.
- Upside concern: Pace-and-position dependent; best chance if they go too quick mid-race.
Recent team (trainer/jockey) notes and tendencies
- Kingsley Jr. (Sweet Will, Bee Well): Multiple live shots whose weights and ground-saving tactics matter late.
- Brion (Swore): Barn excels with improving handicappers stepping into graded spots.
- Garner (Zarak the Brave): Highest impost underscores class; all about distribution of energy under weight.
- Fisher/Watters (Welshman): Proven strike team in major NSA events; combination profile is positive on international markets.
Odds and market view
- Opening/morning-line indications: International boards show competitive pricing across the middleweights, with Zarak the Brave favored on class despite top weight, and Welshman/Hidden Path attracting each-way support. Expect Zarak to trade shortest, with Welshman next, then a cluster including Swore, Caramelised, and Sweet Will. Check domestic pools for live updates near post.
Pace and race shape
- Set-up: A measured early tempo is typical for this race, with emphasis on clean jumping and position through the middle circuits. Horses with efficient energy use—especially those carrying less weight—can gain late. Expect a compact group until the backstretch of the final circuit, then a class-and-stamina test to the line.
(No external citation required for tactical projection.)
Betting trends and historical notes
- Race type/profile: NSA Grade 1 handicaps often reward class even under impost, but weight spreads can bring live prices into the frame for exactas and trifectas. Aqueduct’s configuration makes timing the move more important than raw early speed.
- Purse/grade continuity: The Lonesome Glory has consistently drawn top-tier jumpers and produced logical outcomes with occasional mid-priced placements filling exotics.
Suggested wagers
- Win (primary): Zarak the Brave (3) — Class edge even under 158; needs a clean round and a patient ride.
- Win (value saver): Welshman (8) — Form and connections point to a peak effort; fair weight and tactical profile.
- Exacta box (3x): 3 – 7 – 8 (Zarak the Brave, Hidden Path, Welshman) — Blends class with consistent placers; Hidden Path is an each-way type who fits the frame profile.
- Trifecta (key): 3 over 1,7,8 over 1,2,5,6,7,8 — Key the top weight on class, use Kingsley pair and consistent midweights underneath for coverage.
- Each-way/Place interest: Hidden Path (7) — Reliability and track-favoring profile make him a logical board hitter.
What to watch:
- Weight vs. class: Can Zarak concede and still finish best?
- Tactical stalkers: Welshman and Hidden Path to pounce if the favorite feels the impost late
- Rail and rhythm: Sweet Will saving ground for a late share
