LOUISVILLE, KY – Ahead of its highly anticipated second-quarter earnings release on July 24, Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) received a bullish price target revision from Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial, citing strong performance in its live and historical horseracing (L&H) segment and continued momentum at historical racing machine (HRM) venues.
Price Target Boost & Analyst Commentary
Stantial reaffirmed a “Buy” rating on CHDN and raised his price target to $160, up from $153—representing a 14.1% upside from the July 19 closing price. The stock is up 3.84% year-to-date, reflecting investor confidence in Churchill’s diversified gaming portfolio.
“Same-store KY/VA HRM revenue growth remained stable quarter-over-quarter during Q2, continuing to outperform regional gaming trends,” Stantial noted, citing factors such as skill game bans, Virginia slot floor upgrades, and new venue ramp-ups.
Kentucky Derby & TwinSpires Set New Records
Churchill’s Q2 earnings are closely watched due to the inclusion of Kentucky Derby Week, which shattered previous handle records. Highlights include:
- TwinSpires Derby Day Handle: $92.1 million (vs. $75.5M in 2023)
- Derby Race Handle Alone: $60.9 million (vs. $48.9M in 2023)
Despite a slight downward revision in TwinSpires’ adjusted EBITDA, Stantial emphasized the platform’s race day growth and online wagering momentum.
HRM Expansion & Legal Tailwinds
Churchill’s HRM properties in Kentucky and Virginia remain key growth drivers. The company currently operates 2,750 HRMs in Virginia, with plans to scale up to 5,000 machines. Recent legal developments, including the upholding of Kentucky’s skill game ban, may further boost HRM traffic.
“New types of skill games are emerging, but CHDN’s HRM venues continue to capture displaced demand,” Stantial added.
Why Churchill Remains a Top Pick
With a robust pipeline of gaming projects, record-breaking wagering performance, and favorable regulatory trends, Churchill Downs remains Stifel’s top regional gaming equity pick heading into the second half of 2025.
