The New York Islanders host the Tampa Bay Lightning in a pivotal Metropolitan-Atlantic crossover clash at UBS Arena, where playoff positioning hangs in the balance for two battle-tested Eastern Conference contenders. New York (15-10-3) seeks to extend a four-game point streak (3-0-1) and solidify their wild-card hold, riding Ilya Sorokin’s Vezina buzz (.923 SV%) against a Lightning squad (16-9-2) that’s won three straight but leaks goals on the road (3.4 GA/GP away). Tampa’s star power—led by Nikita Kucherov’s Art Ross pace—meets the Isles’ trap defense (top-5 in hits/GP at 23.1), promising a grind-it-out affair with high stakes: a win vaults either team toward the East’s top tier. History favors the visitors, but UBS’s fortress vibe (9-3-1 home) could flip the script.
Venue and Game Details
Location: UBS Arena, Belmont Park, NY (620 Avenue of the Americas, Elmont, NY 11003). The Islanders’ state-of-the-art home seats 17,250 for hockey and features a raucous, subway-close energy—perfect for trapping foes, though Tampa’s speed tests the ice.
Puckdrop: 7:00 p.m. ET.
Broadcast: ESPN (national), MSG+ (New York), Bally Sports Sun (Tampa), Sportsnet (Canada). Doors open at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Team Records and Standings
The Islanders perch in the Metropolitan’s fifth slot with a +9 goal differential, elite in defensive zone time (52.8% CF%) but middling on the power play (18.2%, 20th). Tampa tops the Atlantic’s fourth spot, fueled by offensive fireworks (3.28 GF/GP, 4th) but vulnerable without depth scoring (bottom-10 in 5v5 goals).
| Team | Record (W-L-OTL) | Points | GF/GP | GA/GP | Home | Away | Streak |
| New York Islanders | 15-10-3 | 33 | 2.96 | 2.59 | 9-3-1 | 6-7-2 | W1 (OT) |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 16-9-2 | 34 | 3.28 | 2.85 | 8-4-1 | 8-5-1 | W3 |
New York ranks 3rd in goals allowed (70), while Tampa leads in power-play goals (22) but sits 22nd in penalty kill (81.4%).
Recent Team Forms
The Islanders’ point streak includes Thursday’s 4-3 OT road win over Colorado, where Bo Horvat’s heroics masked a leaky third period (2 GA). They’re 7-2-1 in their last 10, with Sorokin’s .923 SV% anchoring a shutdown system—though they’ve scored just 2.5 goals/game at home lately.
Tampa has erupted for 14 goals in three wins, including a 5-2 home rout of Pittsburgh on Wednesday. The Bolts are 8-2-0 in their prior 10, dominating transition (3.45 xGF/60), but road defense has faltered (3.4 GA/GP). Andrei Vasilevskiy’s return has stabilized the crease (.915 SV% last three).
| Islanders Last 5 Games | Result | Score | Key Notes |
| Dec 4 @ COL | W (OT) | 4-3 | Horvat GWG; Sorokin 35 saves in thriller. |
| Dec 1 vs NJD | W | 3-1 | Palmieri 2G; low-event trap, 28 SOG. |
| Nov 28 @ BUF | L | 2-4 | Defensive lapses; 0/3 PP. |
| Nov 26 vs DET | W | 4-2 | Barzal 2A; balanced attack clicks. |
| Nov 23 @ CAR | OTL | 3-4 | Late rally falls short; strong metrics. |
| Lightning Last 5 Games | Result | Score | Key Notes |
| Dec 3 vs PIT | W | 5-2 | Kucherov 2G-2A; Vasilevskiy 22 saves. |
| Dec 1 @ FLA | W | 4-3 | Stamkos GWG; high-danger duel (14 chances). |
| Nov 28 vs BOS | W | 5-2 | Point 3A; offensive explosion, 38 SOG. |
| Nov 26 @ MIN | L | 2-3 | Vasilevskiy pulled; road woes resurface. |
| Nov 23 vs NJD | W | 3-1 | Hedman 2A; controlled play (55% CF). |
Injury Report
Tampa’s blue line remains a concern without top-pair stability, while New York’s forward depth is tested—though Sorokin provides a backstop.
| Team | Player | Position | Status | Est. Return | Notes |
| NYI | Noah Dobson | D | IR (Out) | Dec 15 | Wrist; 12 pts in 20GP, key puck-mover. |
| NYI | Matt Martin | LW | Out | Dec 10 | Lower body; 4 pts in 18GP, enforcer grit. |
| NYI | Semyon Varlamov | G | Day-to-Day | Dec 6? | Illness; backup to Sorokin (12-7-2, .923 SV%). |
| TBL | Erik Cernak | D | IR (Out) | Dec 18 | Knee; 5 pts in 22GP, physical shutdown. |
| TBL | Anthony Cirelli | C | Out | Dec 12 | Upper body; 9 pts in 21GP, two-way pest. |
| TBL | Nick Perbix | D | Day-to-Day | Dec 6? | Concussion; practiced, 6 pts in 19GP. |
| TBL | Tanner Jeannot | LW | IR (Out) | Jan 2 | Hip; 7 pts in 15GP, bottom-six energy. |
Sorokin starts for the Isles; Vasilevskiy (10-6-1, .915 SV%) for Tampa.
Key Player Matchups
The Isles’ forecheck vs. Tampa’s rush will define tempo, with Kucherov hunting for openings amid New York’s physicality.
Nikita Kucherov (TBL, 18G-25A) vs. Alexander Romanov (NYI): Kucherov’s league-leading 43 points test Romanov’s gap control (3.5 defensive shares). Kucherov has 12 pts in last 8; Romanov must limit cross-seams (TBL 12.4 HD chances/GP).
Bo Horvat (NYI, 13G-14A) vs. Brayden Point (TBL): Horvat’s netfront battles (52.1% faceoffs) meet Point’s speed (20 pts). Horvat 5G in streak; Point thrives on transitions (1.38 Pts/GP).
Mathew Barzal (NYI, 10G-19A) vs. Victor Hedman (TBL): Barzal’s elusiveness (team-high 29 pts) challenges Hedman’s quarterbacking (15 pts). Barzal 8 pts in 7 vs. TBL; Hedman logs 25:15 TOI.
Ilya Sorokin (NYI) vs. Steven Stamkos (TBL, 12G-12A): Sorokin’s butterfly style (.923 SV%) vs. Stamkos’ one-timer (4 PPG). Sorokin has blanked TBL twice career; Stamkos 6 pts in last 5.
Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) vs. Islanders’ Top Line: Vasilevskiy’s puckhandling (.915 SV%) counters Horvat-Barzal-Palmieri (42 combined pts). Vasilevskiy stops 91% of high-danger shots; NYI generates 10.9/GP.
Bonus: Kyle Palmieri (NYI, sniper) targets Tampa’s depleted bottom D.
Series History
These clubs have tangled 71 times (regular season), with Tampa holding a 38-28-5 edge (56.7% win rate)—a nod to their 2020-21 playoff dominance. The Lightning have won 6 of the last 8, including a 4-2 home victory on November 2 (Kucherov 3 pts). Isles are 5-5 in their last 10 at UBS vs. TBL, often decided by goaltending (.918 SV% combined). Playoff scars: Tampa’s 2021 sweep in the ECF.
| Last 5 Meetings | Date | Result (NYI Home unless noted) | Score | Key Stat |
| Nov 2, 2025 | @ TBL | W (TBL) | 4-2 | Vasilevskiy 28 saves; Bolts control Corsi 54%. |
| Apr 10, 2025 | NYI Home | L (TBL) | 3-4 (OT) | Kucherov GWG; 62 SOG combined. |
| Feb 18, 2025 | @ TBL | W (TBL) | 5-3 | Point 2G; high-scoring tilt. |
| Dec 17, 2024 | NYI Home | W (NYI) | 2-1 | Sorokin shutout; trap masterclass. |
| Oct 20, 2024 | @ NYI | W (TBL) | 3-2 | Stamkos decider; low-event grinder. |
Tampa wins 70% when scoring 4+ (NYI allows 2.59 GA/GP).
Betting Trends
Moneyline Trends: Lightning 8-5 as road favorites; Islanders 9-3 as home dogs. 55% bets on NYI ML.
Puck Line: TBL -1.5 (+170) covers in 50% of road wins; NYI +1.5 (-200) hits 75% at home.
Total Trends: Over 6.0 in 7 of TBL’s last 10; Under in 6 of NYI’s last 9 homes. League avg: 6.1 goals/game.
Game Odds
New York Islanders 6.5
Tampa Bay Lightning – 175
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, December 5, 2025
