MLB Game Preview: Philadelphia Phillies (79-58) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (85-53)

Venue & Game Info

• Date & Time: Monday, September 1, 2025 – First pitch 4:10 PM ET / 3:10 PM CT
• Venue: American Family Field, 1 Brewers Way, Milwaukee, WI 53214
• Broadcast: FDSWI (Milwaukee), NBCS‑PH (Philadelphia), MLB.TV (out‑of‑market)

Weather Forecast

• Conditions: Game played under retractable roof — weather not a factor for play
• Outside Temp: ~74°F (23°C), partly cloudy in Milwaukee
• Wind: Light 5–7 mph breeze outside, no in‑game impact

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

• Zack Wheeler (SP) – 60‑Day IL, blood clot
• Jordan Romano (RP) – 15‑Day IL, finger
• Cristian Pache (OF) – 10‑Day IL, hamstring
• Orion Kerkering (RP) – 15‑Day IL, elbow
• Garrett Stubbs (C) – 10‑Day IL, knee

Milwaukee Brewers

• Logan Henderson (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow
• Trevor Megill (RP) – 15‑Day IL, flexor strain
• Grant Anderson (RP) – 15‑Day IL, ankle
• Joey Ortiz (INF) – 10‑Day IL, hamstring
• D.L. Hall (SP) – 15‑Day IL, oblique
• Jordan Montgomery (SP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow
• Rhys Hoskins (1B) – 10‑Day IL, thumb
• Garrett Mitchell (OF) – 60‑Day IL, oblique
• Connor Thomas (RP) – 60‑Day IL, elbow

Projected Starting Pitchers

• PHI: RHP Taijuan Walker (4‑7, 3.63 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 84 K in 111 IP) – 3.14 ERA in August; veteran presence, mixes splitter/fastball.
• MIL: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (4‑2, 4.33 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 58 K in 43.2 IP) – Electric stuff but control issues; 9.00+ ERA in August.

Key Player Matchups

Philadelphia Phillies Offense

• Kyle Schwarber: .247 AVG, 49 HR (2nd MLB), 119 RBI (MLB leader) — 40.3% pull rate on fly balls.
• Trea Turner: .300 AVG, 29 2B, 19 SB — elite contact/speed threat.
• Bryce Harper: .269 AVG, 29 2B, 22 HR, .384 OBP — patient power bat.
• J.T. Realmuto: 94.7 mph avg. exit velo last 2 weeks — trending up.

Milwaukee Brewers Offense

• Christian Yelich: .273 AVG, 27 HR, 92 RBI — 21st in HR, 11th in RBI MLB.
• William Contreras: .259 AVG, 25 2B, 17 HR, 75 BB — on‑base machine.
• Brice Turang: .287 AVG, 24 2B, 16 HR — speed/contact blend.
• Jackson Chourio: .284 AVG, 31 2B, 4 3B, 18 HR — .526 AVG over last 5 games.

Recent Form

Philadelphia Phillies

• Last 10: 6‑4 (5.6 runs/game, 4.30 ERA)
• Road record: 34‑35
• 4‑5‑1 O/U last 10 games

Milwaukee Brewers

• Last 10: 5‑5 (4.6 runs/game, 4.15 ERA)
• Home record: 45‑24
• 6‑4 O/U last 10 games

Series History

• 2025 Season: Brewers lead 3‑0 (swept in Philadelphia, May 30–June 1)
• All‑Time: Phillies lead 99‑84 overall (96‑83 regular season)
• Longest PHI win streak vs. MIL: 7 games (twice)

Betting Trends

Milwaukee Brewers

• 65.8% win rate as favorite (50‑26)
• 76.2% win rate when favored at -162 or shorter
• 3‑7 ATS last 10 games
• Over in 6 of last 10

Philadelphia Phillies

• 40% win rate as underdog (10‑15)
• 3‑7 ATS last 10 games
• Under in 56 of last 90 games (62.2%)

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

• Brewers’ elite home record vs. Phillies’ sub‑.500 road mark
• Misiorowski’s control issues vs. PHI’s top‑half walk rate
• Walker’s solid August but vulnerable to high‑contact lineups
• Both offenses top‑10 in MLB runs scored; bullpens: MIL (3.76 ERA, top‑10), PHI (4.37 ERA, bottom‑10)