MLB Game Preview: Miami Marlins (64-72) vs. New York Mets (73-63)

Venue & Game Info

• Date: Sunday, August 31, 2025
• First Pitch: 1:40 PM ET / 10:40 AM PT
• Venue: Citi Field, 41 Seaver Way, Flushing, Queens, NY 11368
• Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass
• Broadcast: SNY (NYM), Bally Sports Florida (MIA), MLB.TV

Weather Update

• Conditions: Outdoor venue; warm late‑summer afternoon.
• Forecast at First Pitch: Mostly sunny, ~88°F (31°C), light SW breeze 5–7 mph, humidity ~50%.
• Impact: Ideal hitting weather; warm temps could give the ball a little extra carry.

Injury Report

Miami Marlins:

• Tyler Zuber (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (lat)
• Janson Junk (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (arm)
• Anthony Bender (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (tibia)
• Graham Pauley (INF) – 10‑Day IL (oblique)
• Kyle Stowers (OF) – 10‑Day IL (oblique)
• Jesus Tinoco (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (forearm)
• Max Meyer (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (hip)
• Ryan Weathers (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (lat)
• Griffin Conine (OF) – 60‑Day IL (arm)
• Andrew Nardi (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (back)
• Braxton Garrett (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)

New York Mets:

• Reed Garrett (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (elbow)
• Frankie Montas (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Francisco Alvarez (C) – 10‑Day IL (thumb)
• Jesse Winker (OF) – 60‑Day IL (back)
• Max Kranick (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Dedniel Núñez (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Tylor Megill (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Griffin Canning (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (Achilles)
• Jose Siri (OF) – 60‑Day IL (shin)
• Danny Young (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• A.J. Minter (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (lat)
• Nick Madrigal (INF) – 60‑Day IL (shoulder)
• Drew Smith (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Christian Scott (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)

Probable Pitchers

• MIA: RHP Sandy Alcantara (7‑11, 5.87 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 113 K)
  • Former Cy Young winner enduring a rough season; struggles with HR prevention (1.3 HR/9).
  • Career vs. NYM: 5‑8, 3.74 ERA in 20 starts.
• NYM: RHP Kodai Senga (7‑5, 2.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 103 K)

• “Ghost Fork” still elite; holding opponents to .215 AVG.
• Home ERA: 2.41 in 10 starts at Citi Field this year.

Recent Form

Miami Marlins – Last 5: W‑L‑W‑L‑L

• Took 2 of first 3 in this series; offense averaging 4.3 runs/game this season (19th MLB).
• Team ERA 4.57 (25th MLB); bullpen save rate 63.5%.

New York Mets – Last 5: L‑W‑L‑W‑W

• 6‑4 in last 10; hitting .326 as a team in that span.
• Mets’ OBP (.329) ranks 2nd in NL; 177 HR (8th MLB).

Series History

• 2025 Season Series: Mets lead 5‑4 entering finale.
• Mets 4‑2 in last 6 at Citi Field vs. Miami.

Key Player Matchups

• Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Sandy Alcantara
  • Alonso: .271 AVG, 34 2B, 31 HR, 110 RBI; power threat to all fields.
  • Alcantara: vulnerable to RHH slugging this season.
• Francisco Lindor (NYM) vs. Marlins Bullpen
  • Lindor: 17‑for‑45 (.378) last 10 games; 2 HR, 5 RBI in that stretch.
• Otto Lopez (MIA) vs. Kodai Senga
  • Lopez: .237 AVG, 17 2B, 11 HR, 59 RBI; contact bat in middle of order.
• Jakob Marsee (MIA) vs. NYM Middle Relief
• Marsee: 14‑for‑39 (.359) last 10 games; 3 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR.

Betting Trends

Miami Marlins:

• 5‑5 in last 10 games; 3‑7 in last 10 road games.
• Over is 4‑2 in last 6.

New York Mets:

• 6‑4 in last 10; 45‑26 at home this season.
• Over is 6‑2‑2 in last 10 games.

Head‑to‑Head:

• Over is 5‑5 in last 10 meetings.
• Mets 4‑2 in last 6 at Citi Field vs. MIA.

Suggested Wagering Model

Primary Lean: Mets ‑1.5 (+120)

• Senga’s home dominance + Mets’ hot bats vs. Alcantara’s struggles create strong cover potential.

Secondary Lean: Over 8 Runs (‑116)

• Mets’ recent offensive surge + Marlins’ bullpen issues point to runs on both sides.

Prop Angle: Pete Alonso Anytime HR (+350)

• Alonso’s power vs. Alcantara’s HR vulnerability makes this a high‑value prop.