MLB Game Preview: Seattle Mariners (72-64) vs. Cleveland Guardians (68-66)

Venue & Game Info

• Date: Sunday, August 31, 2025
• First Pitch: 1:40 PM ET / 10:40 AM PT
• Venue: Progressive Field, 2401 Ontario Street, Cleveland, OH 44115
• Surface: Kentucky Bluegrass
• Broadcast: ROOT Sports NW (Seattle), CLEGuardians.TV (Cleveland), MLB.TV

Weather Update

• Conditions: Outdoor venue; warm late‑summer afternoon.
• Forecast at First Pitch: Mostly sunny, ~82°F (28°C), light SW breeze 5–7 mph, humidity ~55%.
• Impact: Slightly hitter‑friendly with warm temps; minimal wind effect.

Injury / Suspension Report

Seattle Mariners:

• Trent Thornton (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (Achilles)
• Logan Evans (RHP) – 15‑Day IL (elbow)
• Gregory Santos (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (knee)
• Ryan Bliss (INF) – 60‑Day IL (biceps)

Cleveland Guardians:

• Lane Thomas (OF) – 10‑Day IL (foot)
• Will Brennan (OF) – 60‑Day IL (forearm)
• Andrew Walters (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (lat)
• Ben Lively (RHP) – 60‑Day IL (forearm)
• John Means (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (elbow)
• Sam Hentges (LHP) – 60‑Day IL (shoulder)

Probable Pitchers

• SEA: RHP Bryce Miller (3‑5, 5.98 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 47 K in 58.2 IP)
  • Struggles with command (4.0 BB/9) and hard contact; Over has hit in 7 of his last 8 starts.
• CLE: RHP Tanner Bibee (9‑10, 4.73 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 132 K in 148.1 IP)
• Has allowed 3+ ER in 5 of last 6 starts; Over has cashed in 7 straight Bibee outings.

Recent Form

Seattle Mariners – Last 5: L‑L‑W‑L‑W

• Dropped 3 of last 4; offense reliant on HRs (191 on season, 3rd MLB).
• Team ERA 3.97 (17th MLB); bullpen save rate 62.5%.

Cleveland Guardians – Last 5: W‑W‑W‑W‑L

• Won first two games of this series (5‑4, 4‑3) to take 4‑game win streak before Saturday’s loss.
• Offense sparked by Kyle Manzardo and Steven Kwan; pitching staff ERA 4.34 over last 10 games.

Series History

• 2025 Season Series: Mariners lead 3‑2 entering finale.
• Guardians have taken first two games of this set at Progressive Field.
• Over has hit in 7 of last 10 meetings.

Key Player Matchups

• Julio Rodríguez (SEA) vs. Tanner Bibee
  • Rodríguez: .281 AVG, 25 HR, 82 RBI; 2‑run HR in Game 2 of series.
  • Bibee: Vulnerable to right‑handed power bats this season.
• Cal Raleigh (SEA) vs. Guardians Bullpen
  • Raleigh: 50 HR, 107 RBI on season; leads team in both categories.
• Steven Kwan (CLE) vs. Bryce Miller
  • Kwan: .284 AVG, elite contact skills; could exploit Miller’s control issues.
• Kyle Manzardo (CLE) vs. Mariners Middle Relief
• Manzardo: Key 2‑run HR in Game 1; power threat from left side.

Betting Trends

Seattle Mariners:

• Over is 4‑2 in last 6 games.
• 3‑7 ATS in last 10 games.

Cleveland Guardians:

• 4‑0 last 4 games as underdog.
• Over is 6‑4 in last 10 games.

Head‑to‑Head:

• Over is 7‑3 in last 10 meetings.
• Home team 5‑2 in last 7 matchups.

Suggested Wagering Model

Primary Lean: Over 8.5 Runs (‑105)

• Both starters trending Over; combined 14‑0‑1 Over run in last 15 starts.
• Warm weather + recent series scoring patterns support high‑scoring potential.

Secondary Lean: Guardians Moneyline (‑103)

• Cleveland’s current momentum (4 wins in last 5) + home‑field edge vs. Seattle’s road struggles (31‑37).

Prop Angle: Julio Rodríguez Anytime HR (+400)

• Bibee’s HR issues + Rodríguez’s power surge make this a value play.