MLS Match Preview: Austin FC (9-9-8) vs. San Jose Earthquakes (9-11-8)

Weather Outlook

Forecast at Kickoff: ~87°F (31°C), partly cloudy, humidity ~55%, light SSE winds 6–8 mph

Impact: Warm, humid conditions could slow tempo late; minimal wind effect on ball flight

Injury & Availability Report

Austin FC

Out: Brandon Vazquez (knee)

Available: Daniel Pereira returns from yellow-card suspension

Notes: Josh Wolff expected to stick with a 4-4-2, using pace in wide areas and Myrto Uzuni as focal point

San Jose Earthquakes

Out: Noel Buck (leg)

Notes: Mark-Anthony Kaye may return to XI after bench role; Josef Martínez (3 straight games with a goal) leads line with Cristian Espinoza and Cristian Arango

Projected Starting XIs

Austin FC (4-4-2)
Stuver (GK); Desler, Svatok, Hines-Ike, Biro; Sanchez, Sabovic, Pereira, Wolff; Obrian, Uzuni

San Jose Earthquakes (3-4-3)
Daniel (GK); Munie, Wilson, Romney; Jones, Kaye, Leroux, Costa; Espinoza, Martínez, Arango

Key Player Matchups

Owen Wolff (AUS) vs. Mark-Anthony Kaye (SJ) – Wolff has 4 goals in last 5 MLS matches; Kaye’s defensive positioning will be tested.

Myrto Uzuni (AUS) vs. Tanner Beason/Casey Walls (SJ) – Uzuni’s movement in the box vs. a San Jose backline conceding 1.74 GA/90.

Cristian Arango (SJ) vs. Leo Väisänen (AUS) – Arango has 6 goals in 6 career matches vs. Austin; aerial and poaching threat.

Josef Martínez (SJ) vs. Brad Stuver (AUS) – Martínez’s finishing form vs. Stuver’s 74.3% save rate.

Recent Team Form

Austin FC – Last 6 MLS: W D D W L D

Unbeaten in last 9 home matches in all comps (6 draws in that span)

Averaging 1.0 GF & 1.0 GA per home match in last 3 at Q2

San Jose Earthquakes – Last 6 MLS: W L W L L D

Won 2 of last 6; conceded 11 goals in that span

Winless in 8 of last 10 away matches

Series History

All-Time MLS: Austin 1W – San Jose 2W – 7D

Recent: Austin unbeaten in last 6 MLS meetings (2W, 4D)

At Q2 Stadium: Austin 1W – 0L – 4D vs. San Jose

Notable: Last 5 meetings in Austin have all seen both teams score

Betting Trends

Austin FC:

3-0-0 in last 3 home matches

6 of last 9 home matches ended in draws

Under 2.5 in 4 of last 5 overall

San Jose Earthquakes:

0-5 SU in last 5 road matches

10-2 ATS on road despite poor SU record

Over 2.5 in 4 of last 5 overall

H2H Totals:

BTTS in 7 of last 9 meetings

Over 2.5 in 6 of last 9

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Inputs:

Team xG: AUS 32.8, SJ 51.4

Goals Conceded/90: AUS 1.16, SJ 1.74

Home/away splits & form streaks

Key player availability (Vazquez out; Buck out)