MLB Game Preview: Texas Rangers (43-44) vs. San Diego Padres (46-40)

Matchup: Texas Rangers (43–44) vs. San Diego Padres (46–40)
Date: Friday, July 4, 2025
Time: 6:40 PM PT / 9:40 PM ET
Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Watch: MLB Network, Bally Sports Southwest, Padres.TV

Game Overview

The San Diego Padres host the Texas Rangers in a July 4th interleague showdown at Petco Park. Both teams are hovering around the playoff bubble, with the Padres sitting second in the NL West and the Rangers trying to climb back to .500 in the AL West.

This is the first meeting between the two clubs in 2025, and both teams are trending in opposite directions. The Padres have won 6 of their last 10, while the Rangers are 5–5 in their last 10 but have won back-to-back games.

Starting Pitching Matchup

Kumar Rocker (Rangers)

• Record: 3–4
• ERA: 6.13
• WHIP: 1.58
• Strikeouts: 37 in 39.2 IP
• Last Start: 6 IP, 2 ER vs. Mariners

Rocker has struggled with command and consistency in his rookie campaign, allowing a .302 opponent batting average. However, his 3.76 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could be due for positive regression.

Randy Vásquez (Padres)

• Record: 3–4
• ERA: 3.84
• WHIP: 1.31
• Strikeouts: 48 in 84.1 IP
• Last Start: 4.1 IP, 4 ER vs. Reds

Vásquez has been solid at home (3.19 ERA at Petco Park) but has struggled with walks and hard contact. He’s allowed 9 hits in each of his last two starts and will need to be sharper against a power-hitting Rangers lineup.

Key Hitters to Watch

Rangers

• Corey Seager: .249 AVG, 11 HR, 8 2B
  • 3 HR in last 10 games; career .295 hitter vs. Padres
• Josh Smith: .287 AVG, .410 SLG
  • Leads team in batting average; 4 multi-hit games in last 7
• Marcus Semien: .238 AVG, 9 HR, 36 BB
  • 8-game hitting streak; .302 AVG over last 10 games
• Adolis García: 13.1% barrel rate, 25.8% K rate
• Power threat with 49.3% hard-hit rate

Padres

• Fernando Tatis Jr.: .261 AVG, 15 HR, 38 RBI
  • 5-game hitting streak; .300 AVG over last 5 games
• Manny Machado: .289 AVG, 50 RBI, .515 SLG
  • Team leader in RBI and batting average
• Luis Arraez: .279 AVG, 17 2B, 4 HR
  • Elite contact hitter; .314 OBP
• Jackson Merrill: .297 AVG, .509 SLG
• Emerging star with 11.9% barrel rate

Team Stats & Trends

Category	Rangers	Padres
Team Batting Avg	.230 (28th in MLB)	.245 (18th in MLB)
Runs Scored	330 (25th)	352 (23rd)
Home Runs	88 (T-18th)	73 (27th)
Bullpen ERA	3.67 (Top 10)	3.71 (8th in MLB)
Last 10 Games	5–5	5–5
Road/Home Record	17–25 (Road)	25–14 (Home)

This game projects as a tight, low-scoring affair with both starters capable of limiting damage. The Padres’ bullpen and home-field advantage give them the edge, but if Rocker can limit early walks, Texas could keep it close.

Betting Trends

• Padres are 27–17 as favorites of -121 or more
• Rangers are 13–30 as underdogs this season
• Under is 47–26 in Rangers games this year (+19.2 units ROI)
• Padres have hit the 1st 5 Innings Team Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games