Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals (47–41) vs. Chicago Cubs (52–35)
Date: Friday, July 4, 2025
Time: 2:20 PM ET
Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Watch: Apple TV+
Game Overview
The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals renew their historic NL Central rivalry on Independence Day in a pivotal series opener at Wrigley Field. The Cubs lead the division and are 27–15 at home, while the Cardinals are trying to stay in the playoff hunt despite a recent three-game skid.
This is the fifth meeting between the two clubs this season, with the series tied 2–2. Both teams are 5–5 in their last 10 games, but the Cubs have the edge in offensive firepower and recent momentum.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Miles Mikolas (STL)
- Record: 4–5
- ERA: 4.76
- WHIP: 1.38
- Last Start: 4 IP, 6 ER vs. Guardians
- Trend: Cardinals have lost 3 of his last 4 starts
Mikolas is a pitch-to-contact righty with a flyball-heavy profile. He’s struggled on the road and faces a Cubs lineup that ranks top 5 in OPS and home runs.
Colin Rea (CHC)
- Record: 5–3
- ERA: 4.37
- WHIP: 1.29
- Last Start: 5 IP, 2 ER vs. Astros
- Trend: Cubs have won 4 of his last 5 starts
Rea has been quietly effective, limiting damage and giving the Cubs a chance to win. He’ll look to continue his solid stretch against a Cardinals lineup that’s cooled off.
Key Hitters to Watch
Cardinals
- Brendan Donovan: .293 AVG, 91 hits
- Willson Contreras: 11 HR, 51 RBI
- Lars Nootbaar: 11 HR, .763 OPS
- Nolan Arenado: 10 HR, 13 2B, .247 AVG
Cubs
- Seiya Suzuki: 23 HR, 73 RBI, .912 OPS
- Pete Crow-Armstrong: 21 HR, 20 2B, 26 SB
- Kyle Tucker: .290 AVG, 17 HR, 52 RBI
- Nico Hoerner: .288 AVG, 17 2B, elite contact rate
Team Stats & Trends
| Stat Category | Cardinals | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Batting Avg | .254 (6th in MLB) | .255 (3rd in NL) |
| OPS | .716 (15th) | .773 (4th) |
| Runs Per Game (L10) | 3.7 | 5.2 |
| Bullpen ERA | 3.94 (10th in NL) | 3.89 (12th in MLB) |
| Last 10 Games | 5–5 | 6–4 |
The Cubs’ offense is too deep for Mikolas’ contact-heavy approach, especially at Wrigley. Rea should do enough to keep the Cardinals in check, and the Cubs’ bullpen has been more reliable of late.
Betting Trends
- Cubs are 41–18 as favorites this season
- Cardinals are 5–11 as underdogs of +129 or worse
- Over is 6–4 in Cubs’ last 10 games
- Cardinals have hit the run line in 31 of their last 52 games (+10.7 units ROI)
Game Odds
St. Louis Cardinals 10
Chicago Cubs – 134
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, July 3, 2025
