Venue: Citi Field
Location: Queens, New York
First Pitch: 1:40 PM ET / 10:40 AM PT
Broadcast: NESN / SNY / MLB.TV
Weather Update — Queens, NY
Temperature: 86–90°F at first pitch
Humidity: 55–65%
Wind: 7–11 mph (blowing out to right field)
Rain Chance: 10%
Impact:
Warm, breezy conditions → ball carries well to right
Boost for left‑handed power hitters
Pitchers must keep the ball down to avoid early HR damage
Team Records & Standings
Boston Red Sox — 45–48 (4th in AL East)
Offense inconsistent
Rotation middle‑tier
Bullpen volatile
Road record: 21–26
New York Mets — 40–56 (5th in NL East)
Offense streaky
Pitching staff struggling
Bullpen bottom‑third in MLB
Home record: 20–28
Injury Report
Boston Red Sox
Rafael Devers — Probable (wrist)
Triston Casas — Out (shoulder)
Nick Pivetta — Out (forearm)
Jarren Duran — Questionable (illness)
New York Mets
Francisco Lindor — Probable (ankle)
Pete Alonso — Out (knee)
Kodai Senga — Out (shoulder)
Starling Marte — Questionable (back)
Impact:
Red Sox missing Casas reduces left‑handed power.
Mets missing Alonso removes their biggest HR threat.
Pitching Matchup — Tanner Tolle (BOS) vs. Tyler Thornton (NYM)
Boston Red Sox — Tanner Tolle (LHP)
Record: 3–5 ERA: 4.44 WHIP: 1.32 K/BB: Developing command
Pitch Mix: Four‑seam, slider, changeup, cutter
Scouting Notes:
Slider is his best swing‑and‑miss pitch
Can struggle vs. right‑handed power
Mets’ lineup weakened without Alonso
Must avoid middle‑middle fastballs in warm conditions
New York Mets — Tyler Thornton (RHP)
Record: 4–7 ERA: 4.71 WHIP: 1.36 K/BB: Average command
Pitch Mix: Four‑seam, curveball, slider, changeup
Scouting Notes:
Curveball generates soft contact
Red Sox lineup struggles at times vs. elite breaking balls
Citi Field suppresses HRs slightly, helping his fly‑ball tendencies
Must avoid falling behind in counts
Recent Team Form
Boston Red Sox — Last 10 Games
5–5
Offense averaging 4.4 runs per game
Bullpen ERA: 4.12
Competitive but inconsistent
New York Mets — Last 10 Games
3–7
Offense averaging 3.9 runs per game
Rotation ERA: 4.68
Trending downward; pitching staff struggling
Series History
All‑Time: Red Sox lead 44–38
Last 10 Meetings: Red Sox lead 6–4
2026 Season Series: First meeting
At Citi Field: Red Sox have won 4 of last 6
Key Note: Mets have scored 3 or fewer in 7 of their last 10 games vs. Boston.
Key Player Matchups
Rafael Devers (BOS) vs. Tyler Thornton (NYM)
Devers: .279 AVG, 19 HR
Thornton’s curveball can challenge aggressive hitters Edge: Devers
Masataka Yoshida (BOS) vs. Mets Bullpen
Yoshida: .285 AVG, elite contact hitter
Mets bullpen ranks bottom‑five in WHIP Edge: Yoshida
Francisco Lindor (NYM) vs. Tanner Tolle (BOS)
Lindor: .254 AVG, 14 HR
Tolle struggles vs. right‑handed power Edge: Lindor
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) vs. Red Sox Pitching
Nimmo: .268 AVG, strong OBP
Red Sox pitching struggles at times vs. left‑handed hitters Edge: Nimmo
Statistical Comparison (2026 Season)
| Category | Red Sox | Mets |
| Runs per Game | 4.52 | 4.09 |
| Team ERA | 4.18 | 4.62 |
| Bullpen ERA | 4.05 | 4.48 |
| OPS | .726 | .703 |
| Home Runs | 103 | 94 |
| Defensive Runs Saved | +4 | -6 |
Key Insight: Red Sox hold advantages in offense, pitching depth, and bullpen reliability.
Betting Trends
Boston Red Sox
6–4 in last 10 road games
5–3 in last 8 vs. NL East
Overs hit in 5 of last 7 Tolle starts
Red Sox 4–2 in last six Sunday games
New York Mets
3–7 in last 10 home games
2–8 in last 10 vs. teams above .500
Overs hit in 6 of last 9 Thornton starts
Mets 1–5 in last six day games
Head‑to‑Head Trends
Red Sox have covered run line in 6 of last 9
Red Sox average 4.8 runs per game vs. NYM since 2022
Mets have scored 3 or fewer in 7 of last 10 vs. BOS
Game Odds
Boston Red Sox – 118
New York Mets 8
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, July 11, 2026
