Great American Ball Park — Cincinnati, OH
First Pitch: 1:40 PM EDT
Venue & Conditions
Great American Ball Park
Surface: Natural grass
Dimensions: 328 LF / 404 CF / 325 RF
Ballpark Profile: One of MLB’s most hitter‑friendly parks, especially for HRs to RF and LF.
Weather Forecast — Cincinnati, OH
Temperature: 86–90°F
Conditions: Hot, humid Midwest afternoon
Wind: Blowing out to RF at 10–13 mph
Rain Chance: ~20% (isolated thunderstorms possible)
Impact: Warm, humid air + RF wind = boosted HR conditions, especially for left‑handed pull hitters.
Team Overview
Baltimore Orioles (42–48)
Last 10 Games: 4–6
Road Record: 19–26
Run Differential: -31
Recent Form: Rotation competitive; offense inconsistent; bullpen struggling in late innings.
Cincinnati Reds (40–48)
Last 10 Games: 5–5
Home Record: 21–23
Run Differential: -28
Recent Form: Offense showing signs of life; pitching remains volatile; bullpen improving.
Starting Pitchers
Baltimore — RHP Kyle Bradish
2026 Stats:
ERA: 3.54
WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 9.1
BB/9: 2.7
Recent Starts: 6 IP, 2 ER; 5.2 IP, 3 ER; 7 IP, 1 ER
Profile:
Slider‑heavy arsenal
Generates swing‑and‑miss
Vulnerable to left‑handed power when slider backs up
Matchup Outlook:
Reds’ lefties (Friedl, De La Cruz from left side, Benson) pose threats
Must keep slider sharp in HR‑friendly conditions
Cincinnati — LHP Nick Lodolo
2026 Stats:
ERA: 3.61
WHIP: 1.24
K/9: 10.2
BB/9: 2.9
Recent Starts: 6 IP, 1 ER; 7 IP, 2 ER; 5 IP, 4 ER
Profile:
Power curveball
Excellent vs. left‑handed hitters
Can struggle vs. right‑handed power
Matchup Outlook:
Orioles’ right‑handed bats (Mountcastle, Henderson, Santander from right side) match well vs. Lodolo
Must avoid middle‑in fastballs to Mountcastle
Injury Report
Baltimore
OUT:
RP Danny Coulombe — elbow inflammation
QUESTIONABLE:
OF Austin Hays — minor hip soreness
ACTIVE:
Gunnar Henderson fully healthy
Adley Rutschman available
Cincinnati
OUT:
RP Lucas Sims — shoulder strain
QUESTIONABLE:
OF Jake Fraley — ankle soreness
ACTIVE:
Elly De La Cruz fully healthy
Christian Encarnacion‑Strand available
Key Player Matchups
1. Gunnar Henderson (BAL) vs. Nick Lodolo (CIN)
Henderson handles left‑handed pitching well
Lodolo must keep curveball below the zone
2. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Kyle Bradish (BAL)
De La Cruz’s bat speed vs. Bradish’s slider
RF wind boosts his HR potential from the left side
3. Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) vs. Reds Bullpen
Mountcastle’s power plays well late in games
Reds’ bullpen allows hard contact vs. right‑handed hitters
4. TJ Friedl (CIN) vs. Bradish
Friedl excels vs. right‑handed pitching
Bradish must avoid elevated fastballs
Series History
2026 Season Series: First meeting
Last 10 Meetings: Orioles lead 6–4
Trend: Baltimore has historically hit well at Great American Ball Park; Cincinnati struggles vs. strong slider pitchers.
Recent Team Form
Orioles
Offense averaging 4.2 runs over last 10
Rotation ERA last week: 3.71
Bullpen ERA: 4.98
Reds
Offense averaging 4.5 runs over last 10
Rotation ERA last week: 4.12
Bullpen ERA: 3.89
Betting Trends
Orioles are 4–8 in Bradish’s last 12 road starts
Reds are 7–3 in their last 10 home games
Over has hit in 7 of last 10 games at Great American Ball Park
Lodolo is 10–5 in his last 15 starts
First‑Five Over has hit in 5 of last 7 Reds home games
Game Odds
Baltimore Orioles – 109
Cincinnati Reds 9.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, July 4, 2026
