First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET / 4:05 p.m. PT
Venue: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, New York
Surface: Natural grass
Dimensions: Short RF porch; deep LCF power alley
Weather Outlook — Bronx, New York
- Conditions: Warm, partly cloudy summer evening
- Temperature: ~83°F at first pitch
- Humidity: ~64%
- Wind: 9–13 mph blowing out toward right field
- Impact: Boosts left‑handed power; fly balls to RF carry well
Probable Pitchers
Detroit — RHP Ty Melton
(Projected profile based on organizational depth charts)
- Record: 3–6
- ERA: 4.52
- WHIP: 1.36
- Strikeouts: 58
- Profile:
- Fastball/curveball mix with inconsistent command
- Yankees’ lineup excels vs. right‑handed fastballs
- Road ERA: 4.81
- Must avoid elevated pitches — Yankee Stadium punishes mistakes
New York — RHP Will Warren
- Record: 6–4
- ERA: 3.71
- WHIP: 1.25
- Strikeouts: 79
- Profile:
- Strong slider/sinker combination
- Tigers’ lineup struggles vs. breaking‑ball heavy right‑handers
- Home ERA: 3.33
- Generates weak contact — ideal in a hitter‑friendly park
Team Records & Recent Form
Detroit Tigers (37–49)
- Road Record: 17–26
- Last 10: 4–6
- Trend:
- Offense averaging 4.0 runs per game over last 10
- Rotation ERA: 4.72 over last 10
- Bullpen inconsistent (5.01 ERA last 10 games)
New York Yankees (48–37)
- Home Record: 26–18
- Last 10: 6–4
- Trend:
- Offense averaging 5.1 runs per game over last 10
- Pitching staff allowing 4.0 runs per game over last 10
- Bullpen ERA: 3.48 (top‑10 in MLB)
Injury Report
Tigers
- Riley Greene — DAY‑TO‑DAY (ankle)
- Kerry Carpenter — OUT (back)
- Casey Mize — OUT (shoulder)
- Jason Foley — DAY‑TO‑DAY (forearm)
Impact: Greene’s status is critical — he’s Detroit’s best offensive catalyst. Carpenter’s absence removes a key left‑handed bat.
Yankees
- Aaron Judge — DAY‑TO‑DAY (wrist)
- Gleyber Torres — OUT (hamstring)
- Nestor Cortes — OUT (elbow)
- Jonathan Loáisiga — OUT (shoulder)
Impact: Judge’s availability determines New York’s offensive ceiling. Torres’ absence weakens the middle infield and lineup depth.
Key Player Matchups
Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Ty Melton (DET)
If Judge plays, his power profile is dangerous against Melton’s inconsistent command. Elevated fastballs are a liability.
Riley Greene (DET) vs. Will Warren (NYY)
Greene’s left‑handed bat is Detroit’s best chance to exploit Yankee Stadium’s RF porch. Warren’s slider must stay sharp.
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) vs. Tigers Bullpen
Stanton has 12 RBI in his last 14 games. Detroit’s bullpen has allowed 18 runs in its last 25 innings.
Series History
- 2025 Season Series: Yankees won 5–1
- Last 10 Meetings: Yankees lead 7–3
- At Yankee Stadium: Yankees have won 8 of last 10
- Trend:
- New York has dominated the matchup
- Detroit’s pitching has struggled in the Bronx
Betting Trends
Tigers
- 4–6 last 10
- Overs hit in 6 of last 10
- Tigers are 3–7 in Melton’s last 10 starts
Yankees
- 6–4 last 10
- Overs hit in 7 of last 10
- Yankees are 9–4 in Warren’s last 13 starts
Game Odds
Detroit Tigers 9.5
New York Yankees – 117
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, June 30, 2026
