First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET / 5:10 p.m. PT
Venue: American Family Field — Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Roof Status: Likely closed (storms in forecast)
Weather Outlook — American Family Field
Milwaukee’s retractable roof makes outdoor conditions less impactful, but weather still influences roof decisions.
Conditions: Thunderstorms expected in Milwaukee
Temperature: ~73°F
Humidity: ~78%
Wind: 12–16 mph from the southwest
Impact: Roof almost certainly closed, creating neutral hitting conditions with slightly reduced carry.
Probable Pitchers
Cincinnati — RHP Rhett Lowder
Record: 4–7
ERA: 4.28
WHIP: 1.33
Strikeouts: 68
Profile:
Polished command profile; keeps the ball down
Generates ground balls but can be hit hard by left‑handed power
Brewers’ lineup features several lefty threats
Needs to avoid middle‑in fastballs vs. Yelich and Chourio
Milwaukee — RHP Brandon Sproat
Record: 7–3
ERA: 3.22
WHIP: 1.19
Strikeouts: 81
Profile:
One of MLB’s breakout young arms
Heavy sinker/slider combo; induces weak contact
Reds’ lineup struggles vs. high‑velocity right‑handers
Excellent home splits (2.71 ERA at American Family Field)
Team Records & Recent Form
Cincinnati Reds (39–44)
Road Record: 18–25
Last 10: 4–6
Trend:
Offense inconsistent (3.8 runs per game last 10)
Rotation ERA: 4.77 over last 10
Bullpen has blown 3 leads in last 7 games
Milwaukee Brewers (51–31)
Home Record: 29–14
Last 10: 7–3
Trend:
Offense averaging 5.2 runs per game over last 10
Pitching staff allowing just 3.6 runs per game over last 10
Bullpen ERA: 3.41 (top‑five in MLB)
Injury Report
Reds
Matt McLain — OUT (shoulder)
Nick Lodolo — OUT (forearm)
TJ Friedl — DAY‑TO‑DAY (hamstring)
Alex Young — OUT (back)
Impact: McLain’s absence hurts Cincinnati’s middle‑order consistency. Lodolo’s injury weakens rotation depth.
Brewers
Willy Adames — DAY‑TO‑DAY (wrist)
Robert Gasser — OUT (elbow)
Trevor Megill — OUT (shoulder)
Gary Sánchez — OUT (knee)
Impact: Adames’ status is key — he’s Milwaukee’s best two‑way shortstop. Megill’s absence slightly weakens late‑inning options.
Key Player Matchups
Christian Yelich (MIL) vs. Rhett Lowder (CIN)
Yelich has a .301 average vs. right‑handed pitching this season. Lowder’s sinker must stay down — Yelich punishes elevated fastballs.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Brandon Sproat (MIL)
De La Cruz’s speed and power can change games, but Sproat’s slider has dominated high‑whiff hitters. De La Cruz is hitting .189 vs. sliders this season.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) vs. Reds Bullpen
Chourio has 5 HR in his last 12 games. Reds’ bullpen has allowed 15 runs in its last 20 innings.
Series History
2025 Season Series: Brewers won 8–5
Last 10 Meetings: Brewers lead 7–3
At American Family Field: Brewers have won 8 of last 10
Trend:
Milwaukee has dominated Cincinnati at home
Brewers’ pitching has consistently controlled the matchup
Betting Trends
Reds
4–6 last 10
Unders hit in 6 of last 10
Reds are 2–8 in last 10 road games vs. MIL
Brewers
7–3 last 10
Overs hit in 6 of last 10
Brewers are 10–3 in Sproat’s last 13 starts
Game Odds
Cincinnati Reds 9
Milwaukee Brewers – 164
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, June 29, 2026
