NASCAR Cup Series |
Race Start: 12:30 PM PT / 3:30 PM ET
Broadcast: FOX / MRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Venue Profile – Sonoma Raceway
Location: Sonoma Valley, California
Track Type: Road Course
Length: 1.99 miles (Cup configuration)
Turns: 12
Elevation Change: 160 feet (one of the most dramatic in NASCAR)
Backstretch: Short, uphill run into Turn 3; long downhill run from Turn 4 to Turn 7
Surface: Asphalt
Race Distance: 110 laps | 218.9 miles
Track Characteristics
Technical, rhythm‑based road course with heavy braking zones
Tire wear is significant, especially in the carousel and downhill braking zones
Fuel strategy and pit sequencing often decide the race
Passing zones: Turn 7 hairpin, Turn 11 hairpin, Turn 4A downhill braking
Drivers who excel: Smooth throttle control, elite braking, road‑course specialists
Weather Forecast – Sonoma, CA (June 28, 2026)
Temperature: 82–85°F
Conditions: Sunny, dry, low humidity
Wind: Light NW 6–10 mph
Track Impact:
Hot, slick surface increases tire falloff
Long‑run speed becomes more important
Cars with superior mechanical grip gain advantage
Race History & Trends
Recent Winners
2025: Tyler Reddick
2024: Kyle Larson
2023: Martin Truex Jr.
2022: Daniel Suárez
2021: Kyle Larson
Key Historical Notes
Hendrick Motorsports has dominated Sonoma in the Next Gen era.
Toyota drivers (Truex, Reddick, Bell) consistently excel on road courses.
Track position is king — only 2 of the last 10 winners started outside the top 10.
Fuel strategy frequently flips the running order in the final 25 laps.
Driver‑by‑Driver Analysis – 2026 Save Mart 350
Below is a full breakdown of the top contenders, their form cycles, Sonoma history, and matchup notes.
Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet)
Recent Finishes: 3rd, 1st, 7th, 2nd Sonoma History: 2024 winner, multiple poles Strengths: Elite road racer, best raw speed at Sonoma Weaknesses: Aggressive style can burn tires early Betting Outlook: Favorite Analysis: Larson is the most naturally gifted road racer in the field. Sonoma is his home track, and he consistently qualifies on the front row. If he controls the race from the start, he’s nearly unbeatable. Long‑run tire wear is the only concern.
Tyler Reddick – 23XI Racing (Toyota)
Recent Finishes: 2nd, 5th, 1st, 4th Sonoma History: 2025 winner Strengths: Best corner‑entry speed in the series Weaknesses: Occasional pit‑road mistakes Betting Outlook: Co‑favorite Analysis: Reddick is the most complete road racer in the Cup Series. His 2025 win was a clinic in tire management and braking precision. If Toyota unloads with speed, he’s Larson’s biggest threat.
Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota)
Recent Finishes: 6th, 8th, 4th, 10th Sonoma History: 3‑time winner Strengths: Tire conservation, race IQ Weaknesses: Qualifying pace Betting Outlook: Top‑tier contender Analysis: Truex is the most accomplished Sonoma driver in the field. He thrives in long‑run, strategy‑heavy races. If the race goes green for long stretches, he becomes extremely dangerous.
Christopher Bell – Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota)
Recent Finishes: 1st, 12th, 3rd, 6th Sonoma History: Top‑10 machine Strengths: Braking zones, precision driving Weaknesses: Inconsistent pit crew Betting Outlook: High‑value contender Analysis: Bell is one of the best pure road racers in NASCAR. His corner‑entry control is elite, and he rarely makes mistakes. If JGR nails the setup, he’s a podium threat.
Chase Elliott – Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet)
Recent Finishes: 4th, 9th, 2nd, 11th Sonoma History: Multiple top‑5s Strengths: Smooth, consistent, elite tire management Weaknesses: Sonoma is not his best road course Betting Outlook: Top‑5 threat Analysis: Elliott is the best road racer of the last decade, but Sonoma has never been his strongest track. Still, he’s too talented to ignore.
Daniel Suárez – Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet)
Recent Finishes: 7th, 14th, 6th, 3rd Sonoma History: 2022 winner Strengths: Smooth throttle control Weaknesses: Trackhouse inconsistency Betting Outlook: Dark horse Analysis: Suárez is excellent at Sonoma and thrives on rhythm‑based road courses. If Trackhouse brings speed, he’s a sneaky top‑5 play.
Shane van Gisbergen – Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet)
Recent Finishes: 5th, 3rd, 18th, 2nd Sonoma History: First Cup start here Strengths: World‑class road racer Weaknesses: NASCAR pit‑cycle experience Betting Outlook: Wild card Analysis: SVG is the most skilled road racer in the field, but Sonoma’s NASCAR‑specific strategy demands experience. If the race goes green, he could shock the field.
Ross Chastain – Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet)
Recent Finishes: 10th, 6th, 12th, 8th Sonoma History: Strong but inconsistent Strengths: Aggression, braking Weaknesses: Overdriving corners Betting Outlook: Top‑10 Analysis: Chastain is fast but volatile at Sonoma. If he avoids mistakes, he’s a contender for a top‑10.
Betting Trends & Angles
Key Trends
Toyota has won 3 of the last 5 road courses
Hendrick has won 4 of the last 6 Sonoma races
Pole winners have finished top‑5 in 7 of the last 10 years
Long‑run speed > short‑run speed at Sonoma
Driver Matchup Notes
Larson > Elliott at Sonoma historically
Reddick > Bell on pure road‑course pace
Truex > Suárez in long‑run tire wear
SVG > Chastain in technical road‑course precision
Projected Race Outcome
Win Contenders
Kyle Larson
Tyler Reddick
Martin Truex Jr.
Podium Threats
Christopher Bell
Chase Elliott
Shane van Gisbergen
Dark Horses
Daniel Suárez
Ross Chastain
DRIVER ODDS
Shane Van Gisbergen − 165
Connor Zilisch + 600
Tyler Reddick + 900
Kyle Larson + 1100
Ryan Blaney + 1600
Michael McDowell + 1600
Ty Gibbs + 2000
Chris Buescher + 2200
Chase Briscoe + 2200
William Byron + 2500
Chase Elliott + 2500
AJ Allmendinger + 2500
Carson Hocevar + 4500
Daniel Suarez + 5000
Christopher Bell + 5000
Bubba Wallace + 5500
Ross Chastain + 6000
Denny Hamlin + 7500
Joey Logano + 9000
Austin Hill + 9000
Ryan Preece + 10000
Zane Smith + 11000
Alex Bowman + 11000
Todd Gilliland + 15000
Austin Cindric + 15000
Riley Herbst + 20000
John Hunter Nemechek + 20000
Brad Keselowski + 20000
Austin Dillon + 25000
Erik Jones + 30000
Ty Dillon + 40000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. + 40000
Noah Gragson + 40000
Josh Berry + 40000
Cole Custer + 40000
Cody Ware + 40000
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, June 27, 2026
