PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET / 3:40 PM PT
Probables: SEA — George Kirby (RHP) vs PIT — Mitch Keller (RHP)
VENUE: PNC PARK
Location: 115 Federal St., Pittsburgh, PA
Dimensions: 325 LF, 399 CF, 320 RF
Park Factors:
Slightly pitcher‑friendly
Suppresses HRs to center
Boosts doubles to the gaps
Surface: Grass
PNC Park is one of MLB’s most scenic and balanced parks — fair to hitters, but night games often favor pitchers.
WEATHER FORECAST
Temperature: 78°F at first pitch
Wind: 7–10 mph out to left field
Humidity: 63%
Chance of Rain: 15%
Impact: Slight hitter’s boost — warm air + light wind out
INJURY REPORT
Seattle Mariners
Julio Rodríguez — ACTIVE (minor wrist soreness, expected to play)
Ty France — ACTIVE
J.P. Crawford — OUT (hamstring)
Matt Brash — OUT (elbow)
Gregory Santos — OUT (lat)
Pittsburgh Pirates
Oneil Cruz — ACTIVE
Ke’Bryan Hayes — ACTIVE (back tightness, probable)
Henry Davis — OUT (hand)
Marco Gonzales — OUT (forearm)
David Bednar — ACTIVE (available)
STARTING PITCHING MATCHUP
George Kirby — RHP, Mariners
2026 Season:
Record: 6–5
ERA: 3.54
WHIP: 1.08
K/BB: 88/10
Last 5 Starts: 3.20 ERA, 1.05 WHIP
Scouting Notes:
Elite command; lowest walk rate among MLB starters
Pirates rank bottom‑third vs high‑command RHP
Kirby’s road ERA (3.40) nearly identical to home
Vulnerable to left‑handed power — Cruz and Suwinski key threats
Matchup Edge: Strong
Mitch Keller — RHP, Pirates
2026 Season:
Record: 7–6
ERA: 3.88
WHIP: 1.24
K/BB: 92/28
Last 5 Starts: 4.02 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Scouting Notes:
Heavy sinker/cutter mix
Mariners rank middle‑of‑the‑pack vs RHP, but struggle vs elite cutters
Keller excellent at PNC Park (3.10 home ERA)
Seattle’s lefties (Raleigh, Raley, Canzone) match up well
Matchup Edge: Moderate
TEAM RECORDS & RECENT FORM
Seattle Mariners (40–39)
Last 10: 5–5
Road Record: 18–22
Run Differential: +14
Trend: Pitching stabilizing; offense inconsistent
Strength: Rotation + bullpen depth
Weakness: Bottom‑third offense without Crawford
Pittsburgh Pirates (39–39)
Last 10: 6–4
Home Record: 20–18
Run Differential: –6
Trend: Offense improving; pitching steady
Strength: Power/speed combo with Cruz
Weakness: Bullpen volatility outside Bednar
SERIES HISTORY
2024–2026 Combined: Mariners lead 7–5
At PNC Park: Teams split last 6
Kirby vs Pirates: First career start
Keller vs Mariners: 3.60 ERA in 2 career starts
BETTING TRENDS
Seattle
Under is 6–3 in last 9
Mariners ML is 4–1 in Kirby’s last 5 starts
Road Unders hitting at 58%
Pittsburgh
5–2 in last 7 home games
Under is 7–3 in last 10 at PNC
Keller starts: Pirates are 8–6
Head‑to‑Head
Under has hit in 4 of last 6
Mariners have covered RL in 3 of last 4
Moneyline:
Kirby’s command advantage + Pirates’ inconsistent offense → Recommendation: Mariners ML (moderate)
Run Line:
Projected low‑scoring game reduces RL value → Lean: Mariners –1.5 (light)
Total (O/U):
Two strong starters + PNC Park + both teams trending Under → Recommendation: Under 7.5
Game Odds
Seattle Mariners – 124
Pittsburgh Pirates 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, June 22, 2026
