Probables: MIN RHP Luis Paredes vs. ARI RHP Jordan Cabrera (5–4, 3.68 ERA)
First Pitch: 1:10 PM MST (1:10 PM PT / 4:10 PM ET)
Television: Bally Sports North, Bally Sports Arizona, MLB.TV
Venue & Weather
Chase Field — Phoenix, Arizona
- Roof: Expected closed due to extreme heat
- Temperature: Controlled (72–75°F)
- Humidity: Controlled
- Wind: Not applicable indoors
Impact:
- Neutral-to-slight hitter’s park with roof closed
- Ball carries well to left-center but suppresses opposite-field HRs
- Run environment: +2–4% above league average
Injury Report
Minnesota Twins
- Royce Lewis (hamstring) — Out, major lineup loss
- Carlos Correa (heel) — Day-to-day, expected to play
- Max Kepler (wrist) — Questionable, likely bench role
- Jhoan Duran (shoulder fatigue) — Available but monitored
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Corbin Carroll (shoulder) — Day-to-day, expected to start
- Ketel Marte (quad) — Out, major offensive loss
- Eduardo Rodriguez (lat) — Out, rotation depth weakened
- Paul Sewald (forearm) — Out, bullpen leverage compromised
Team Records & Recent Form
Minnesota Twins (37–41)
- Last 10: 4–6
- Road Record: 17–22
- Run Differential: –15
- Strengths: improving rotation, strong left-handed power
- Weaknesses: inconsistent offense, bullpen volatility
Arizona Diamondbacks (39–37)
- Last 10: 6–4
- Home Record: 21–17
- Run Differential: +9
- Strengths: athletic lineup, strong home-field performance
- Weaknesses: bullpen instability, missing Marte’s switch-hitting presence
Series History
- 2023–2026 Combined: Diamondbacks lead 7–5
- At Chase Field: Diamondbacks lead 4–2
- Last 6 meetings: D-backs lead 4–2
- Average scoring in Phoenix: 8.6 runs/game
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
MINNESOTA — RHP Luis Paredes
(Rookie season; analysis based on scouting profile + early MLB sample) Profile:
- Fastball: 95–97 mph
- Slider: 84–87 mph
- Changeup: 88 mph
- Command: improving but inconsistent
- Fly-ball tendencies
Strengths:
- High strikeout upside
- Effective vs. right-handed hitters
- Good velocity plays well up in zone
Weaknesses:
- Vulnerable to left-handed power
- Arizona has several LH threats (Walker from right side, McCarthy, Moreno from right side)
- Fly-ball profile risky in Chase Field’s left-center gap
Diamondbacks vs. Paredes:
- First career matchup
ARIZONA — RHP Jordan Cabrera
2026 Stats: 5–4, 3.68 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 71 K in 73 IP Pitch Mix:
- 4-seam: 93–95 mph
- Slider: 84–86 mph
- Changeup: 86 mph
- Curveball: 78 mph
Strengths:
- Excellent command
- Generates ground balls
- Strong home splits (3.21 ERA at Chase Field)
Weaknesses:
- Can struggle vs. left-handed hitters
- Twins have several LH bats with lift (Larnach, Kirilloff, Julien)
- Occasional HR issues when slider backs up
Twins vs. Cabrera:
- Larnach: 2-for-5, HR
- Kirilloff: 1-for-4
- Correa: 2-for-7, 2B
Key Player Matchups
Trevor Larnach (MIN) vs. Cabrera
- Larnach hitting .284 with .520 SLG vs RHP
- Cabrera’s slider must stay down
- Edge: Larnach
Christian Walker (ARI) vs. Paredes
- Walker hitting .301 with .580 SLG vs RHP
- Paredes’ fly-ball tendencies are a problem
- Edge: Walker
Carlos Correa (MIN) vs. Cabrera
- Correa hitting .310 in June
- Cabrera’s changeup is key
- Edge: Even
Jake McCarthy (ARI) vs. Paredes
- McCarthy’s speed + lift profile fits well vs. Paredes’ fastball
- Edge: McCarthy
Betting Trends
Minnesota Twins
- 3–7 in last 10 road games
- 2–6 in last 8 vs. NL West
- Over is 6–2 in last 8 Paredes starts
- Twins 4–1 in last 5 Sunday games
Arizona Diamondbacks
- 7–3 in last 10 home games
- 5–1 in last 6 vs. losing teams
- Under is 6–3 in last 9 at Chase Field
- D-backs 4–1 in last 5 vs. Twins
Head-to-Head
- D-backs 4–2 last 6
- Over is 4–1 last 5
- Home team is 6–3 last 9
GAME ODDS
Minnesota Twins 9.5
Arizona Diamondbacks – 117
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, June 20, 2026
