Fenway Park, Boston, MA
First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET
Broadcast: Sportsnet, NESN, MLB.TV
A classic AL East rivalry takes center stage at Fenway Park as the Blue Jays send veteran ace Max Scherzer to the mound against Boston’s young right‑hander Bennett. Toronto enters at 35–38, trying to claw back to .500 after an inconsistent first half. Boston, at 29–41, is in a rebuilding phase but remains dangerous at home, especially in hitter‑friendly Fenway. With Scherzer on the mound and two volatile offenses, this matchup carries both intrigue and betting value.
Venue Information
Fenway Park — Boston, Massachusetts
Opened: 1912
Capacity: ~37,500
Park Factors:
Boosts doubles due to the Green Monster
Short right‑field porch favors left‑handed pull hitters
One of MLB’s most hitter‑friendly parks overall
Weather Forecast (Boston, MA)
Temperature: 72–76°F at first pitch
Humidity: 55–60%
Wind: 8–12 mph blowing out to left
Rain Chance: <10%
Impact:
Boost to right‑handed power hitters
Fly balls to left will carry
Slightly elevated scoring environment
Injury Report
Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Healthy
Bo Bichette — Healthy
George Springer — Questionable (hamstring)
Daulton Varsho — Healthy
Max Scherzer — Healthy
Impact: If Springer sits, Toronto loses a key right‑handed bat in a park that rewards right‑handed pull power.
Boston Red Sox
Rafael Devers — Healthy
Triston Casas — OUT (shoulder)
Jarren Duran — Healthy
Masataka Yoshida — Healthy
Bennett — Healthy
Impact: Casas’ absence removes Boston’s best left‑handed power threat, weakening their ability to attack Scherzer’s fastball/slider mix.
Team Records & Recent Form
Toronto Blue Jays (35–38)
Last 10: 5–5
Road Record: 17–20
Run Differential: -14
Trend: Rotation stabilizing; offense inconsistent; bullpen improving
Boston Red Sox (29–41)
Last 10: 3–7
Home Record: 15–21
Run Differential: -52
Trend: Pitching struggling; offense streaky; defense below average
Series History
2025 Season: Blue Jays won 10–3
Last 20 Meetings: Blue Jays lead 14–6
At Fenway Park (last 10): Blue Jays lead 7–3
Toronto has dominated this rivalry over the past two seasons.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
TOR — Max Scherzer (RHP)
2026 Stats: 3.88 ERA, 1.19 WHIP
Strengths: Elite competitiveness, high strikeout rate, strong slider
Weaknesses: HR‑prone in hitter’s parks, occasional command lapses
Matchup Outlook:
Fenway is a tough environment for fly‑ball pitchers
Must keep fastball above barrels
Still holds a clear experience and stuff advantage
BOS — Bennett (RHP)
2026 Stats: 4.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Strengths: Good changeup, improving command
Weaknesses: Struggles vs. right‑handed power, vulnerable early in counts
Matchup Outlook:
Toronto’s right‑handed core (Guerrero, Bichette, Chapman) matches up well
Must avoid falling behind in counts
Likely 4–5 inning ceiling
Key Player Matchups
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) vs. Bennett (BOS)
Guerrero crushes right‑handed fastballs
Fenway’s left‑field wall is tailor‑made for his line‑drive power
Could be a multi‑extra‑base‑hit night
2. Rafael Devers (BOS) vs. Max Scherzer
Devers has historically hit elite right‑handers well
Scherzer must keep the slider down and away
High‑leverage matchup every plate appearance
3. Bo Bichette (TOR) vs. Bennett’s Changeup
Bichette excels vs. off‑speed pitches
Strong candidate for RBI opportunities
4. Jarren Duran (BOS) vs. Toronto Bullpen
Duran’s speed can create chaos
Key late‑inning matchup if Boston keeps it close
Betting Trends
Toronto Blue Jays
5–5 in last 10
Over is 6–4 in last 10
7–3 in last 10 vs. Red Sox
6–2 in Scherzer’s last 8 starts
Boston Red Sox
3–7 in last 10
Over is 5–3 in last 8
2–8 in last 10 home games
1–6 in Bennett’s last 7 starts
Predictive Analysis
Why Toronto Can Win
Scherzer has a strong matchup vs. Boston’s weakened lineup
Guerrero and Bichette are heating up
Toronto dominates this rivalry
Bennett struggles vs. right‑handed power
Why Boston Can Win
Devers can carry the offense
Fenway’s dimensions can punish fly‑ball pitchers like Scherzer
If Bennett survives the first two innings, Boston can keep it competitive
X‑Factor:
Fenway Park’s left‑field wall. Toronto’s right‑handed hitters can feast on Bennett’s elevated fastballs.
Game Odds
Toronto Blue Jays 9.5
Boston Red Sox – 123
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, June 16, 2026
