Venue: Nationals Park — Washington, D.C.
First Pitch: 4:05 PM ET
Broadcast: MLB.TV / MASN / ROOT Sports NW
Weather Forecast — Washington, D.C.
- Temperature: 83–86°F at first pitch
- Wind: 7–10 mph out to right-center
- Humidity: ~60%
- Rain: <10% — dry, warm, slightly hitter-friendly
- Impact: Boost to left-handed pull hitters and balls hit to the power alley in right-center.
Injury Report
Seattle Mariners
- SP Bryan Woo — OUT (elbow inflammation)
- RP Gregory Santos — 15-day IL (shoulder)
- OF Dominic Canzone — OUT (wrist fracture)
- SS J.P. Crawford — Probable (ankle soreness; expected to play)
- OF Julio Rodríguez — Healthy after minor back tightness earlier in week
Washington Nationals
- RP Hunter Harvey — OUT (lat strain)
- SP Josiah Gray — 60-day IL (forearm)
- OF Lane Thomas — Day-to-day (quad tightness)
- C Keibert Ruiz — Probable (illness)
Team Records & Recent Form
Seattle Mariners (37–34)
- Last 10: 5–5
- Trend: Rotation stabilizing; offense remains streaky.
- Road Record: 17–19
- Run Differential: +12
- Key Note: Mariners have been elite in 1-run games (13–7).
Washington Nationals (35–35)
- Last 10: 6–4
- Trend: Offense improving; bullpen inconsistent without Harvey.
- Home Record: 19–15
- Run Differential: -9
- Key Note: Nationals are 10–4 in their last 14 home games.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Seattle — RHP Luis Castillo
- Record: 6–4
- ERA: 3.21
- WHIP: 1.12
- K/BB: 88/22
- Profile:
- Four-seam/changeup combo with elite vertical movement.
- Generates above-average whiffs (29% K rate).
- Vulnerable to left-handed power when fastball command wavers.
- Matchup Notes:
- Nationals rank bottom 10 in MLB vs. changeups.
- Castillo has a 2.89 ERA in day games this season.
Washington — RHP Cade Cavalli
- Record: 3–3
- ERA: 4.44
- WHIP: 1.31
- K/BB: 52/19
- Profile:
- Power fastball/curveball mix; inconsistent command.
- When ahead in counts, he’s dominant; when behind, he’s hittable.
- Home ERA: 3.71, noticeably better than road.
- Matchup Notes:
- Mariners struggle vs. high-velocity fastballs (team OPS .658 vs 95+ mph).
- Cavalli’s curveball could neutralize Seattle’s lefties.
Key Player Matchups
Seattle Mariners
- Julio Rodríguez vs Cavalli: J-Rod crushes high fastballs; advantage Seattle.
- Cal Raleigh: Switch-hitter with strong numbers vs curveball-heavy pitchers.
- Ty France: Good matchup vs Cavalli’s fastball but limited power.
Washington Nationals
- CJ Abrams vs Castillo: Abrams handles changeups better than most Nats hitters.
- Joey Meneses: Hot streak (.333 last 12 games); good fastball hitter.
- James Wood: Power threat vs Castillo’s occasional elevated heaters.
Series History
- 2023–2026 Combined: Mariners lead 9–6
- At Nationals Park: Mariners lead 5–3
- Trend: Seattle pitching has dominated the matchup — Mariners allow just 3.2 runs per game vs Washington over last 5 meetings.
Betting Trends
Seattle
- Under in 7 of last 10 games
- Castillo starts: Mariners 8–4 last 12
- Seattle 6–2 in last 8 vs NL East
Washington
- Nationals 10–4 in last 14 home games
- Under is 5–2 in Cavalli’s last 7 home starts
- Nationals 4–1 last 5 games vs teams above .500
Head-to-Head
- Under is 6–2 in last 8 meetings
- Mariners have won 4 straight vs Washington
GAME ODDS
Seattle Mariners 9
Washington Nationals – 117
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, June 12, 2026
