First Pitch: 6:40 PM PT
Venue: PETCO Park — San Diego, California
Probable Pitchers: RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. RHP Ramón Vásquez (SD)
Venue Profile — PETCO Park
- Location: Downtown San Diego, CA
- Dimensions: LF 336 ft, CF 396 ft, RF 322 ft
- Park Factor: One of MLB’s most pitcher-friendly parks
- Surface: Kentucky bluegrass
- Notes:
- Marine layer suppresses HRs, especially at night.
- Right-center alley plays deep; extra-base hits require lift + exit velocity.
- Pitchers with command and vertical movement thrive here.
Weather Forecast
- Temperature: 63–66°F at first pitch
- Wind: 7–10 mph blowing in from left-center
- Humidity: 72%
- Precipitation: <5%
- Impact:
- Strong HR suppression due to marine layer + wind in.
- Favors ground-ball and command pitchers.
- Run environment leans under unless bullpens falter.
Injury Report
Philadelphia Phillies
- Trea Turner — Day-to-day (hamstring tightness)
- Brandon Marsh — 10‑day IL (ankle)
- Ranger Suárez — 15‑day IL (forearm)
- Seranthony Domínguez — 60‑day IL (elbow)
San Diego Padres
- Fernando Tatis Jr. — Day-to-day (wrist soreness)
- Xander Bogaerts — 10‑day IL (shoulder)
- Joe Musgrove — 60‑day IL (elbow)
- Robert Suarez — 15‑day IL (lat)
Team Records & Recent Form
Philadelphia Phillies (27–27)
- Last 10: 5–5
- Road Record: 12–15
- Run Differential: +6
- Trend: Pitching stabilizing; offense inconsistent without Turner at full strength.
San Diego Padres (31–22)
- Last 10: 7–3
- Home Record: 17–10
- Run Differential: +39
- Trend: Balanced lineup + strong rotation; bullpen shaky without Suarez.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
PHI — RHP Aaron Nola
- 2026 Stats: 3.62 ERA | 1.14 WHIP | 9.4 K/9
- Profile:
- Elite curveball; generates weak contact and strikeouts.
- Fastball command determines success; when elevated, he’s hittable.
- Fly-ball tendencies are neutralized by PETCO Park.
- Matchup Notes:
- Padres’ lineup is right-handed heavy, which plays into Nola’s strengths.
- Marine layer enhances his curveball depth.
SD — RHP Ramón Vásquez
- 2026 Stats: 3.48 ERA | 1.22 WHIP | 8.1 K/9
- Profile:
- Sinker/slider righty with strong command.
- Generates ground balls at a high rate.
- Struggles vs. patient lineups that force deep counts.
- Matchup Notes:
- Phillies’ left-handed bats (Harper, Stott, Schwarber) match up well with his sinker.
- PETCO Park helps mitigate Schwarber/Harper HR risk.
Key Player Matchups
Phillies Hitters vs. Vásquez
- Bryce Harper: Excellent vs. sinkers; HR threat even in PETCO.
- Kyle Schwarber: Power plays down here, but TB Over still viable.
- Alec Bohm: Contact bat who thrives vs. slider-heavy RHP.
Padres Hitters vs. Nola
- Manny Machado: Good vs. curveballs; career success vs. Nola.
- Jake Cronenworth: Contact-heavy LHB; benefits from wind to RF.
- Ha-Seong Kim: Patient hitter who can force Nola into long ABs.
Series History
- 2025 Season: Phillies won 4–3.
- 2026 Season (so far): First meeting.
- At PETCO Park (last 3 years): Padres 10–7.
- Trend: Tight, low-scoring games dominate this matchup.
Betting Trends
Philadelphia Phillies
- Under is 7–3 in last 10 games
- Phillies 6–2 in last 8 Nola starts
- Phillies 5–1 in last 6 vs. NL West
San Diego Padres
- 7–1 in last 8 home games
- Under is 8–3 in last 11 at PETCO Park
- Padres 9–4 in last 13 vs. teams at .500
Head-to-Head
- Under is 6–2 in last 8 meetings
- Home team is 5–2 in last 7
Game Odds
Philadelphia Phillies 8
San Diego Padres – 115
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, May 25, 2026
