First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET / 4:07 p.m. PT
Venue: Rogers Centre — Toronto, Ontario
Surface: Artificial turf
Capacity: 49,282
Weather Forecast (Toronto, ON)
Rogers Centre is a retractable‑roof stadium; weather influences roof decision.
- Temperature: 58–61°F outside
- Wind: 8–12 mph blowing in from right field (if roof open)
- Humidity: ~52%
- Rain: 10% — roof likely closed
- Weather Impact:
- If closed: neutral to slightly hitter-friendly due to turf
- If open: wind suppresses RH power
- Expect roof closed, minimizing weather effects
Injury Report
Tampa Bay Rays
- Wander Franco — OUT (administrative leave)
- Randy Arozarena — Healthy
- Yandy Díaz — Day-to-day (hamstring tightness)
- Zach Eflin — Healthy (expected to start)
- Pete Fairbanks — Healthy (closer available)
Toronto Blue Jays
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — Healthy
- Bo Bichette — OUT (knee sprain)
- George Springer — Day-to-day (wrist soreness)
- Kevin Gausman — Healthy (expected to start)
- Jordan Romano — OUT (elbow inflammation)
Team Records & Recent Form
Tampa Bay Rays (27–13)
- Last 10: 7–3
- Road Record: 13–7
- Run Differential: +42
- Recent Form:
- Offense averaging 5.2 runs over last 10
- Rotation stabilizing with Eflin and Littell
- Bullpen elite in late innings
Toronto Blue Jays (18–23)
- Last 10: 3–7
- Home Record: 9–11
- Run Differential: -27
- Recent Form:
- Offense inconsistent without Bichette
- Pitching staff allowing 4.9 runs per game over last 10
- Bullpen shaky without Romano
Probable Starting Pitchers
Tampa Bay — RHP Zach Eflin (4–2, 3.48 ERA)
- WHIP: 1.12
- K/BB: 41/7
- Strengths:
- Elite command, heavy sinker
- Works deep into games
- Weaknesses:
- Occasional HR issues vs RH power
- Matchup Outlook:
- Jays’ RH-heavy lineup (Guerrero, Springer, Varsho) is a challenge
- Turf helps his ground-ball profile
Toronto — RHP Kevin Gausman (3–4, 3.77 ERA)
- WHIP: 1.19
- K/BB: 52/12
- Strengths:
- Devastating splitter
- Excellent vs LHB
- Weaknesses:
- Can be HR-prone when splitter flattens
- Matchup Outlook:
- Rays’ balanced lineup matches up well
- Arozarena and Paredes have strong numbers vs splitters
Key Player Matchups
Randy Arozarena (TB) vs. Kevin Gausman
- Arozarena hitting .298 vs RHP
- Gausman allows 1.1 HR/9 to RH hitters
- Advantage: Arozarena
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) vs. Zach Eflin
- Guerrero hitting .315 at home
- Eflin’s sinker can induce weak contact
- Advantage: Even
Isaac Paredes (TB) vs. Toronto Bullpen
- Paredes hitting .333 in late innings
- Jays bullpen bottom-third in WHIP
- Advantage: Paredes
Daulton Varsho (TOR) vs. Eflin
- Varsho’s LH power plays well on turf
- Eflin’s sinker can neutralize him
- Advantage: Eflin
Series History
- 2025 Season: Rays won 8 of 13
- Last 10 Meetings: Rays lead 7–3
- At Rogers Centre: Rays 10–6 since 2021
- Trend: Rays consistently outpitch Toronto in this matchup
Betting Trends
Tampa Bay
- 6–1 in last 7 road games
- Under is 7–3 in last 10 Eflin starts
- Rays 9–3 in last 12 vs AL East
Toronto
- 2–6 in last 8 home games
- Over is 6–3 in last 9 Jays games
- Toronto 1–5 in last 6 vs teams above .500
Head-to-Head
- Rays have won 7 of last 10
- Under is 5–2 in last 7 meetings in Toronto
Game Odds
Tampa Bay Rays – 118
Toronto Blue Jays 8
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, May 11, 2026
