First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. CT / 7:40 p.m. ET
Venue: Target Field — Minneapolis, Minnesota
Surface: Kentucky bluegrass
Capacity: 38,544
Weather Forecast (Minneapolis, MN)
Target Field is open-air; weather will influence run environment.
- Temperature: 63–66°F at first pitch
- Wind: 9–13 mph blowing out to right-center
- Humidity: ~55%
- Rain: 0% — clear, mild spring evening
- Weather Impact:
- Boost for left-handed power hitters
- Slightly hitter-friendly overall
Injury Report
Miami Marlins
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. — Probable (foot soreness, expected to play)
- Jake Burger — OUT (oblique strain)
- Jesús Luzardo — OUT (elbow inflammation)
- Edward Cabrera — Day-to-day (shoulder fatigue)
- A.J. Puk — Healthy (available in bullpen)
Minnesota Twins
- Carlos Correa — Day-to-day (hand contusion)
- Byron Buxton — OUT (knee surgery recovery)
- Royce Lewis — OUT (quad strain)
- Jhoan Duran — Healthy (closer available)
- Chris Paddack — OUT (forearm tightness)
Team Records & Recent Form
Miami Marlins (19–22)
- Last 10: 5–5
- Road Record: 9–12
- Run Differential: -14
- Recent Form:
- Offense inconsistent but improving
- Bullpen stabilizing after rough April
- Rotation depth tested by injuries
Minnesota Twins (18–23)
- Last 10: 4–6
- Home Record: 9–11
- Run Differential: -22
- Recent Form:
- Offense struggling without Lewis/Buxton
- Pitching staff allowing 4.9 runs per game over last 10
- Bullpen remains a strength late in games
Probable Starting Pitchers
Miami — RHP Eury Pérez (2–2, 3.54 ERA)
(Assuming normal rotation alignment)
- WHIP: 1.17
- K/BB: 44/11
- Strengths:
- Electric fastball/slider combo
- Excellent vs RHB
- Weaknesses:
- Occasional command lapses
- Vulnerable to LHB when behind in counts
- Matchup Outlook:
- Twins’ lineup is lefty-heavy → moderate challenge
- Weather favors LHB power
Minnesota — RHP Joe Ryan (3–3, 4.02 ERA)
- WHIP: 1.12
- K/BB: 48/9
- Strengths:
- High-spin fastball plays well up in zone
- Excellent home splits historically
- Weaknesses:
- Gives up HRs when fastball leaks middle
- Matchup Outlook:
- Miami’s RH bats (García, Soler) match up well
- Weather slightly boosts fly-ball hitters
Key Player Matchups
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA) vs. Joe Ryan
- Chisholm hitting .286 vs RHP
- Ryan allows 1.3 HR/9 to LHB
- Advantage: Chisholm
Carlos Correa (MIN) vs. Eury Pérez
- Correa’s status uncertain but strong vs high-velo arms
- Pérez’s slider neutralizes RH hitters
- Advantage: Pérez
Trevor Larnach (MIN) vs. Miami Bullpen
- Larnach’s power plays well with wind blowing out
- Miami’s middle relief is vulnerable
- Advantage: Larnach
Jesús Sánchez (MIA) vs. Joe Ryan
- Sánchez crushes high fastballs
- Ryan’s fastball-heavy approach could be exploited
- Advantage: Sánchez
Series History
- Last Meeting (2025): Twins won 2 of 3
- Last 10 Meetings: Twins lead 6–4
- At Target Field: Twins 5–2 all-time vs Miami
- Trend: Games tend to be higher scoring in Minneapolis
Betting Trends
Miami
- 4–1 in last 5 vs AL Central
- Over is 6–3 in last 9 road games
- Marlins 6–2 in Pérez’s last 8 starts vs sub-.500 teams
Minnesota
- 2–6 in last 8 home games
- Under is 7–3 in last 10 Ryan starts
- Twins 1–5 in last 6 vs NL opponents
Head-to-Head
- Over is 4–1 in last 5 meetings
- Home team has won 6 of last 8
GAME ODDS
Miami Marlins 8.5
Minnesota Twins – 110
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, May 11, 2026
