First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET / 3:40 p.m. PT
Venue: Great American Ball Park — Cincinnati, Ohio
Surface: Kentucky bluegrass
Capacity: 42,319
Weather Forecast (Cincinnati, OH)
Great American Ball Park is one of MLB’s most hitter‑friendly parks; weather will further influence run environment.
- Temperature: 70–73°F at first pitch
- Wind: 10–14 mph blowing out to right-center
- Humidity: ~62%
- Rain: 0% — clear, warm spring evening
- Weather Impact:
- Significant boost for left-handed power
- Ball carries extremely well in these conditions
- Expect a hitter-friendly environment
Injury Report
Washington Nationals
- CJ Abrams — Healthy
- Lane Thomas — Day-to-day (ankle soreness)
- Joey Meneses — Healthy
- Josiah Gray — OUT (elbow inflammation)
- Hunter Harvey — Healthy (available in bullpen)
Cincinnati Reds
- Elly De La Cruz — Healthy
- Matt McLain — OUT (shoulder surgery)
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand — OUT (wrist fracture)
- Nick Lodolo — Healthy (expected to start)
- Alexis Díaz — Healthy (closer available)
Team Records & Recent Form
Washington Nationals (19–22)
- Last 10: 4–6
- Road Record: 8–11
- Run Differential: -22
- Recent Form:
- Offense averaging 4.0 runs over last 10
- Bullpen inconsistent but improving
- Rotation thin without Gray
Cincinnati Reds (22–19)
- Last 10: 6–4
- Home Record: 12–8
- Run Differential: +15
- Recent Form:
- Offense heating up: 5.2 runs per game over last 10
- Bullpen strong late with Díaz anchoring
- Rotation stabilizing with Lodolo back
Probable Starting Pitchers
Washington — RHP Jake Irvin (2–3, 4.12 ERA)
- WHIP: 1.28
- K/BB: 34/11
- Strengths:
- Good fastball/curveball combo
- Keeps ball in park when command is sharp
- Weaknesses:
- Struggles vs LHB
- Road ERA significantly higher
- Matchup Outlook:
- Reds’ lefties (Friedl, Benson) and switch-hitters (De La Cruz) are dangerous
- Weather + park dimensions increase HR risk
Cincinnati — LHP Nick Lodolo (3–1, 3.33 ERA)
- WHIP: 1.14
- K/BB: 41/9
- Strengths:
- Elite strikeout ability
- Dominant vs LHB
- Weaknesses:
- Occasional HR issues vs RH hitters
- Matchup Outlook:
- Nationals’ RH bats (Meneses, Ruiz, Thomas if active) match up well
- Wind blowing out to right slightly helps RH opposite-field power
Key Player Matchups
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Jake Irvin
- De La Cruz hitting .298 vs RHP
- Irvin allows .274 average to switch-hitters
- Advantage: De La Cruz
CJ Abrams (WSH) vs. Nick Lodolo
- Abrams hitting .305 vs LHP
- Lodolo’s curveball is elite vs lefties
- Advantage: Even
Joey Meneses (WSH) vs. Reds Bullpen
- Meneses hitting .321 in late innings
- Reds bullpen has been strong but allows hard contact
- Advantage: Meneses
TJ Friedl (CIN) vs. Irvin
- Friedl’s left-handed power plays extremely well in this weather
- Irvin struggles vs LHB
- Advantage: Friedl
Series History
- 2025 Season: Reds won 4 of 6
- Last 10 Meetings: Reds lead 7–3
- At Great American Ball Park: Reds 9–4 vs Nationals since 2018
- Trend: High-scoring games common in Cincinnati
Betting Trends
Washington
- 3–7 in last 10 road games
- Over is 6–3 in last 9 Nationals games
- Nationals 2–6 in last 8 vs NL Central
Cincinnati
- 5–1 in last 6 home games
- Over is 7–3 in last 10 Reds games
- Reds 6–2 in last 8 vs sub-.500 teams
Head-to-Head
- Over is 5–1 in last 6 meetings
- Reds have won 7 of last 10 overall
Game Odds
Washington Nationals 9.5
Cincinnati Reds – 130
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, May 11, 2026
