First Pitch: 2:10 PM ET / 1:10 PM CT
Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, Illinois
Surface: Natural grass
Series: Game 3 of 3 (Seattle leads 2–0)
Weather Report (as of early May 10 projections)
- Temperature: 70–74°F
- Conditions: Mostly sunny
- Humidity: ~55%
- Wind: 9–13 mph blowing out to right-center
- Impact:
- Boosts left-handed power (advantage: Seattle’s Cal Raleigh, JP Crawford; Chicago’s Gavin Sheets).
- Fly balls carry well in warm, dry air.
- Slight lean toward overs, especially if bullpens enter early.
Injury Report
Seattle Mariners
- OF Julio Rodríguez — Day-to-day (wrist soreness; expected to play)
- SP George Kirby — OUT (shoulder fatigue)
- RP Gregory Santos — OUT (lat strain)
- 1B Ty France — OUT (hand fracture)
- RP Andrés Muñoz — Healthy (available for late innings)
Chicago White Sox
- SS Tim Anderson — OUT (hamstring strain)
- OF Luis Robert Jr. — OUT (hip flexor)
- 3B Yoán Moncada — Day-to-day (back tightness)
- SP Garrett Crochet — Healthy (no restrictions)
- RP Michael Kopech — Healthy (closing duties)
Team Records & Recent Form
Seattle Mariners (19–21)
- Last 10: 6–4
- Road Record: 9–12
- Run Differential: –8
- Trend: Pitching stabilizing; offense inconsistent but improving.
- Strength: Strong bullpen when Muñoz is available; left-handed power.
- Weakness: High strikeout rate; lineup thins without France.
Chicago White Sox (18–21)
- Last 10: 5–5
- Home Record: 10–10
- Run Differential: –22
- Trend: Offense weakened by injuries; pitching carrying load.
- Strength: Crochet’s dominance; Kopech anchoring bullpen.
- Weakness: Missing Robert/Anderson removes top-end production.
Probable Starting Pitchers
Seattle — RHP Logan Gilbert (3–3, 3.62 ERA)
- 2026 Road ERA: 3.48
- WHIP: 1.17
- K/BB: Excellent command
- Scouting Notes:
- Fastball/slider combo plays well vs. depleted White Sox lineup.
- Chicago struggles vs. high-velocity four-seamers.
- Should work deep into the game if pitch count stays efficient.
Chicago — LHP Garrett Crochet (2–4, 3.41 ERA)
- 2026 Home ERA: 3.12
- WHIP: 1.24
- K/9: 10.8
- Scouting Notes:
- One of MLB’s most electric lefties when healthy.
- Mariners’ lineup is right-handed heavy, but struggles vs. elite velocity.
- Needs to avoid long innings; Seattle works deep counts.
Key Player Matchups
1. Julio Rodríguez (SEA) vs. Garrett Crochet
- J-Rod handles lefties well but wrist soreness may limit power.
- Crochet must keep fastball above the barrel.
2. Cal Raleigh (SEA) vs. White Sox Bullpen
- Raleigh’s switch-hitting power plays well with wind blowing out.
- Kopech’s high-velocity fastball is the key late-game matchup.
3. Andrew Vaughn (CWS) vs. Logan Gilbert
- Vaughn’s contact skills give him a chance vs. Gilbert’s elevated fastball.
- Gilbert must avoid middle-third sliders.
4. JP Crawford (SEA) vs. Crochet
- Crawford’s patience could elevate Crochet’s pitch count early.
Series History
- 2025–2026 Combined: Mariners lead 7–4
- At Guaranteed Rate Field: Seattle has won 4 of last 6
- Trend: Mariners consistently win close, pitching-driven games vs. Chicago.
Betting Trends
Seattle Mariners
- 5–2 last seven games
- Unders hit in 6 of last 9
- Mariners are 13–2 when scoring 5+ runs
Chicago White Sox
- 4–6 last 10 home games
- Overs hit in 5 of last 7 White Sox games
- Chicago is 3–11 when trailing after 6 innings
Head-to-Head
- Road team is 6–4 in last 10
- Unders are 6–4 in last 10
- Mariners have covered run line in 5 of last 7
Game Odds
Seattle Mariners – 136
Chicago White Sox 8
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, May 9, 2026
