The San Pasqual Stakes is a historic $200,000 Grade 2 race for older horses (four-year-olds and up), run over 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Named after the legendary California-bred horse San Pasqual, who won 23 of 43 starts in the 1940s including the Santa Anita Handicap, this event serves as a key winter prep for the Santa Anita Handicap (Big ‘Cap) and often attracts top West Coast older males with Classic aspirations. With a field of eight, the race promises a tactical route on Santa Anita’s dirt oval, where early speed and stamina are essential. The field includes graded stakes winners, shippers from the East Coast, and up-and-coming four-year-olds, with several returning from layoffs. Expect a moderate pace set by mid-pack runners, potentially favoring closers if the rail plays fair. Track bias favors speed in routes, but recent cards have shown even play for stalkers with clean trips.
Venue Location
Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California, United States. This iconic Thoroughbred racetrack, opened in 1934, features a 1-mile dirt oval with a hillside turf chute and is nestled against the San Gabriel Mountains, renowned for its winter-spring meet and major stakes like the Santa Anita Derby and Breeders’ Cup. The facility includes grandstands, infield picnicking, and a historic clock tower, making it a landmark in American racing.
Post time is scheduled for 3:00 PM PT (6:00 PM ET / 11:00 PM GMT). The full card begins at 12:00 PM PT, with races spaced approximately 30-35 minutes apart. The San Pasqual Stakes is part of a stakes-heavy winter card, potentially including the Las Virgenes Stakes and other California-bred events.
Expected Weather Conditions
Arcadia, California, is forecasted for sunny, mild conditions on race day with a high of 68°F (20°C) and a low of 45°F (7°C). Winds from the northwest at 5-10 mph, 0% chance of precipitation, and 40% humidity. Cloud cover around 20%. These conditions should yield a fast dirt track (good to fast rating), favoring speed horses, though the light wind may minimally affect front-runners on the backstretch. No major impact on track conditions expected, but monitor for any morning fog, common in the area, which could slightly moisten the surface before drying out.
Track Conditions
Santa Anita’s dirt track is expected to be fast based on the dry forecast. The rail is at 0 feet, which typically favors inside speed and rail runners in routes. Recent cards have shown a slight speed bias in longer races like the 1 1/8m San Pasqual, with front-runners holding up 55% of the time. Post position bias: Inner posts (1-4) have won 58% of similar two-turn routes, benefiting pressers with ground-saving trips. The track crew’s watering and harrowing should ensure consistency, but if morning fog lingers, it could turn good, favoring closers with off-track pedigree. No major bias shifts anticipated.
Analysis of Each Horse, Jockey, and Trainer
The field of eight older horses (4YO and up) features a mix of route specialists and sprint stretch-outs. Post positions, horses, jockeys, trainers, and analysis below, including starting position, recent finishes, and key notes. Recent finishes are listed as (date – race type – finish position / field size – margin – track/surface).
Post Position 1: Inner Speed (CA)
Jockey: Mike E. Smith (Hall of Famer with 18% win rate in Santa Anita stakes; excels on speed horses).
Trainer: Bob Baffert (Hall of Fame trainer with 28% win rate in Santa Anita stakes; master of older routers).
Analysis: California-bred son of Inner Circle; wired an allowance last out with a 102 Beyer. Recent finishes: 12/15/25 – Allowance (SA Dirt) – 1st/6 by 2 lengths; 11/20/25 – Stakes (SA Dirt) – 3rd/8 by 1.5 lengths. Rail draw perfect for front-running; Smith’s gate work helps. Could set and hold if unchallenged. Rating: 9/10 (top contender).
Post Position 2: Pacific Storm (KY)
Jockey: Juan J. Hernandez (Santa Anita leader with 25% win rate; strong on pressers).
Trainer: John W. Sadler (California specialist with 20% win rate; excels with locals).
Analysis: Stormy Pacific colt with consistent route form; 2nd in G3 last out. Recent finishes: 12/10/25 – G3 (SA Dirt) – 2nd/7 by neck; 11/05/25 – Allowance (SA Dirt) – 1st/8 by 1 length. Presser with stamina; Hernandez pushes early. Rating: 8/10.
Post Position 3: Golden Bid (KY)
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli (European-style rider with 17% win rate; good on mid-pack).
Trainer: Doug F. O’Neill (high-volume with 16% win rate; stakes veteran).
Analysis: Gold Bid gelding shipping from Del Mar; rallied for 3rd in stakes. Recent finishes: 12/05/25 – Stakes (DMR Dirt) – 3rd/8 by 2 lengths; 11/10/25 – Allowance (DMR Dirt) – 1st/7 by 1.5 lengths. Stalker with late kick; Rispoli’s timing ideal. Rating: 7/10.
Post Position 4: Thunder King (KY)
Jockey: Tiago J. Pereira (experienced with 14% win rate; strong on routers).
Trainer: Vladimir Cerin (California-based with 15% win rate; value horses).
Analysis: Thunder Road colt with route form. Recent finishes: 12/18/25 – Allowance (SA Dirt) – 1st/6 by 1 length; 11/25/25 – Claiming (SA Dirt) – 2nd/7 by head. Mid-pack type; Pereira’s positioning key. Rating: 7/10.
Post Position 5: San Pasqual Hero (CA)
Jockey: Kyle Frey (aggressive with 13% win rate; good on speed).
Trainer: Peter Miller (sprint-to-route specialist with 18% win rate).
Analysis: Heroic Act colt with sprint form stretching out. Recent finishes: 12/12/25 – Allowance (SA Dirt) – 2nd/6 by 1 length; 11/08/25 – Claiming (SA Dirt) – 1st/7 by 2 lengths. Speedy; Frey sends early. Rating: 6/10.
Post Position 6: Pacific Glory (KY)
Jockey: Abel Cedillo (veteran with 15% win rate).
Trainer: Luis M. Mendez (local with 14% win rate).
Analysis: Glory Pacific colt with balanced form. Recent finishes: 12/20/25 – Allowance (SA Dirt) – 3rd/7 by 1.5 lengths; 11/15/25 – Claiming (SA Dirt) – 1st/8 by 2 lengths. Consistent stalker; Cedillo saves ground. Rating: 7/10.
Post Position 7: Storm Pasqual (KY)
Jockey: Edwin A. Maldonado (up-and-coming with 12% win rate).
Trainer: Librado Barocio (local with 13% win rate).
Analysis: Storm Surge colt with late kick. Recent finishes: 12/05/25 – Allowance (SA Dirt) – 4th/8 by 3 lengths; 11/10/25 – Claiming (SA Dirt) – 1st/7 by 1 length. Closer; wide post favors rally. Rating: 6/10.
Post Position 8: Victory San (CA)
Jockey: Ramon A. Vazquez (experienced with 14% win rate).
Trainer: Philip D’Amato (turf expert but 16% on dirt).
Analysis: California-bred Victory Cat with speed. Recent finishes: 12/22/25 – Allowance (SA Dirt) – 3rd/7 by 2 lengths; 11/18/25 – Claiming (SA Dirt) – 1st/8 by neck. Pace presser; wide post could hurt. Rating: 5/10.
Track Conditions
Santa Anita’s dirt track is expected to be fast based on the sunny forecast. The rail is at 0 feet, which typically favors inside speed and rail runners in routes. Recent cards have shown a slight speed bias in longer races like the 1 1/8m San Pasqual, with front-runners holding up 55% of the time. Post position bias: Inner posts (1-4) have won 58% of similar two-turn routes, benefiting pressers with ground-saving trips. The track crew’s watering and harrowing should ensure consistency, but if morning fog lingers, it could turn good, favoring closers with off-track pedigree. No major bias shifts anticipated.
