Venue & Game Info
Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Start Time: 8:00 PM ET (5:00 PM PT local)
Broadcast: ESPN / ESPN App
Series: Best-of-5 Semifinals – Mercury lead 2-1
Injury Report
Minnesota Lynx:
Napheesa Collier (ankle) – Out (suffered injury in Game 3)
DiJonai Carrington (foot) – Out for season
Head coach Cheryl Reeve – Suspended for Game 4 after Game 3 incident
Phoenix Mercury:
No major injuries reported
Key Player Matchups
Satou Sabally (Mercury) vs. Minnesota Frontcourt
Sabally scored 23 points in Game 3, providing the offensive spark Phoenix needed.
With Collier out, Minnesota must rely on reserves to contain her.
Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) vs. Minnesota Interior Defense
Thomas: 15.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 9.2 APG this season.
Her all-around game is a mismatch problem without Collier’s defensive presence.
Courtney Williams & Kayla McBride (Lynx) vs. Natisha Hiedeman (Mercury)
Williams (19.0 PPG, 6.2 APG in series) and McBride (18.0 PPG) must shoulder the scoring load.
Hiedeman had 19 points off the bench in Game 3, swinging momentum.
Recent Team Form
Phoenix Mercury (Last 10): 5–5, averaging 79.4 PPG, shooting 41.4% FG
Minnesota Lynx (Last 10): 6–4, averaging 82.2 PPG, shooting 46.4% FG
The Mercury have won two straight after dropping Game 1, while Minnesota faces elimination.
Series History
2025 Semifinals: Mercury lead 2–1
Game 1: Lynx 82, Mercury 69 (Collier 27 pts)
Game 2: Mercury 79, Lynx 71
Game 3: Mercury 84, Lynx 76 (Sabally 23 pts, decisive Thomas steal late)
All-time head-to-head (since 1997): Phoenix leads 74–41
Betting Trends
Mercury: 5–5 ATS in last 10 games
Lynx: 6–4 ATS in last 10 games
Totals: Under has hit in 2 of 3 games this series
Minnesota has not lost 3 straight all season
Phoenix is 15–7 at home this season
Historical Betting Results
Game 1 (Lynx 82–69): Lynx +2.5 cashed, Under 165.5 cashed
Game 2 (Mercury 79–71): Mercury -3.5 cashed, Under 164.5 cashed
Game 3 (Mercury 84–76): Mercury -2.5 cashed, Over 160.5 cashed
GAME ODDS
Minnesota Lynx 190
Phoenix Mercury – 4.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, September 27, 2025
