WNBA Game Preview: Washington Mystics (16-24) vs. Los Angeles Sparks (17-20)

Weather Update

Conditions: Indoor venue — climate‑controlled.

Outside Forecast (Downtown LA): Clear skies, ~78°F at tip‑off, light winds. No weather impact on play.

Injury Report

Washington Mystics:

Georgia Amoore (G) – Out for season (ACL)

Jacy Sheldon (G) – Out (lower body)

Los Angeles Sparks:

No reported injuries

Recent Form

Washington Mystics – Last 5: L‑L‑L‑L‑L

Struggling offensively, averaging 78.3 PPG (11th in WNBA).

Shooting 44.4% FG, 33.3% from 3, 75.9% FT.

Defense allowing 81.2 PPG, opponents shooting 44.3%.

Los Angeles Sparks – Last 5: L‑L‑W‑L‑W

One of the league’s most efficient shooting teams: 2nd in FG%, 3rd in 3P%.

Averaging ~86.6 offensive rating, 35.5% from deep.

Fighting for final playoff spot, 2 games back of 8th place.

Series History

All‑Time: Sparks lead 40‑24

2025 Season Series: Sparks lead 2‑1

Jul 15: Sparks 99‑80 (home)

Jul 22: Sparks 93‑86 (away)

Aug 17: Mystics 95‑86 (home)

12 of last 13 meetings decided by ≤10 points.

Key Player Matchups

Dearica Hamby (LA) vs. Kiki Iriafen (WAS)

Hamby vs. WAS this season: 25.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 4.7 APG on 57.2% FG.

Iriafen: 13.0 PPG, 7.3 RPG vs. LA.

Kelsey Plum (LA) vs. Sonia Citron (WAS)

Plum: 20.1 PPG, 5.8 APG; tied WNBA record for most 20+ point/5+ assist games in a season (18).

Citron: Rookie standout, 15.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.4 APG; dropped 24 vs. LA on Aug 17.

Shakira Austin (WAS) vs. Azurá Stevens (LA)

Austin: 15.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 2.7 SPG in series.

Stevens: Versatile forward, 17 pts, 6 reb, 5 ast in last outing vs. IND.

Betting Trends

Washington:

1‑4 ATS last 5 games.

4 of last 5 games have gone Under the total.

Los Angeles:

3‑2 ATS last 5 games.

5 of last 7 home games have gone Over.

Head‑to‑Head:

Over is 4‑1 in last 5 meetings.

Home team is 4‑1 ATS in last 5 meetings.

Suggested Wagering Model

Model Lean:

Primary: Sparks ‑6.5 (home court + playoff motivation vs. Mystics’ 5‑game skid)

Secondary: Over 165.5 (series trend + Sparks’ offensive efficiency)

Prop Angle: Dearica Hamby Over Points (avg. 25.3 vs. WAS this season)

Rationale: LA’s shooting efficiency and Washington’s defensive struggles create a strong cover probability. Mystics’ injuries in the backcourt limit perimeter defense, boosting LA’s scoring outlook.

Historical scoring trends in this matchup lean toward the Over, especially in LA.