Venue, Date & Time
Date: Thursday, September 4, 2025
Tip‑off: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: CareFirst Arena, Washington, D.C.
Broadcast: Amazon Prime Video, MNMT, AZFamily, Merc+
Injury Report
Phoenix Mercury
Monique Akoa Makani (G) – Out
Helena Pueyo (G) – Out for season
Washington Mystics
Jacy Sheldon (G) – Out
Georgia Amoore (G) – Out for season
Bernadett Hatar (C) – Out for season
Phoenix: Currently 4th in WNBA standings, in a three‑way battle for the No. 2 seed.
Washington: Eliminated from playoff contention; playing spoiler.
Recent Form (Last 5 Games)
Phoenix Mercury
Aug 30: W 80‑63 vs. NY (‑1) – Under
Aug 28: W 83‑79 vs. CHI (‑12) – Under
Aug 26: W 92‑84 @ LA (‑3.5) – Under
Aug 22: W 81‑72 vs. GSV (‑7.5) – Under
Aug 21: L 61‑83 @ LAV (+1.5) – Under
Washington Mystics
Aug 31: L 78‑81 @ LA (+8) – Under
Aug 30: L 62‑99 @ GSV (+4) – Over
Aug 28: L 63‑89 @ NY (+8) – Under
Aug 24: L 82‑84 vs. SEA (+8.5) – Over
Aug 23: L 81‑91 vs. LAV (+7.5) – Over
Key Player Matchups
Phoenix Mercury
Satou Sabally – 16.5 PPG, versatile scorer and rebounder.
Alyssa Thomas – 8.9 RPG, 9.2 APG, engine of the offense.
Sami Whitcomb – 1.9 3PM per game, floor‑spacing threat.
Natasha Mack – 1.6 BPG, rim protection anchor.
Washington Mystics
Sonia Citron – 15.1 PPG, 1.8 3PM, team’s top scorer.
Kiki Iriafen – 8.6 RPG, interior presence.
Sug Sutton – 3.8 APG, primary playmaker.
Shakira Austin – 1.1 BPG, defensive anchor in the paint.
Matchup Spotlight:
Thomas vs. Iriafen on the glass will be pivotal; Phoenix’s edge in rebounding (+1.7 RPG) could limit Washington’s second‑chance points.
Citron’s perimeter shooting vs. Mack’s interior defense — Mystics may need to win from deep to keep pace.
Series History
All‑Time: Phoenix leads 41‑21 in regular season meetings.
2025 Meetings:
Jul 27: PHX 88, WAS 72 (in D.C.)
May 25: PHX 68, WAS 62 (in Phoenix)
Trend: Phoenix has won 4 of the last 5 matchups, including both this season by an average margin of +11 points.
Betting Trends
Phoenix Mercury
7‑3 SU in last 10 games.
5‑1 SU as a moneyline favorite of ‑450 or shorter this season.
Under has hit in 5 straight games.
Washington Mystics
On a 7‑game losing streak.
0‑4 SU as a +350 or longer underdog in 2025.
Over is 3‑2 in last 5 games, but 2 of last 3 have gone Under.
Head‑to‑Head Totals:
Under has hit in both 2025 meetings (combined scores: 160, 130).
Suggested Wagering Model
Model Inputs:
Phoenix’s offensive efficiency (83.1 PPG) vs. Washington’s defensive rating (81.6 PAPG).
Mystics’ limited scoring depth without key guards.
Recent trend toward lower‑scoring games in this matchup.
GAME ODDS
Phoenix Mercury – 9.5
Washington Mystics 160.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Wednesday, September 3, 2025
