WNBA Game Preview: New York Liberty (11-3) vs. Phoenix Mercury (11-4)

Match Significance

This Liberty vs Mercury WNBA 2025 matchup is a battle between two of the league’s top contenders. Phoenix enters riding a five-game winning streak, while New York looks to bounce back from a recent loss and reassert its dominance in the Eastern Conference. With both teams boasting MVP-caliber talent and postseason aspirations, this could be a Finals preview in the making.

New York Liberty – Team Overview

Record: 11-3 (5-2 away)

Last Game: Lost 89-81 vs Phoenix (June 19)

Head Coach: Sandy Brondello

Key Players: Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones

Strengths

Elite offensive firepower led by Stewart and Ionescu

Top-three in assists per game (22.1) and three-point shooting

Strong rebounding presence with Jones and Stewart

Concerns

Turnovers and slow starts have plagued recent games

Inconsistent perimeter defense

Lost the last meeting to Phoenix despite shooting 42.6% from the field

Path to Victory

New York must limit Phoenix’s transition game, get Stewart and Ionescu going early, and control the glass. Improved ball security and defensive rotations will be key to flipping the script from their last meeting.

Phoenix Mercury – Team Overview

Record: 11-4 (6-2 home)

Last Game: Won 89-81 vs New York (June 19)

Head Coach: Nate Tibbetts

Key Players: Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally

Strengths

Balanced scoring attack with five players in double figures last game

Alyssa Thomas is averaging a near triple-double over her last five games

Strong free-throw shooting (81.5% vs NY)

Concerns

Three-point shooting inconsistency (22.6% in last game)

Depth concerns with multiple players managing injuries

Can struggle when forced into half-court sets

Path to Victory

Phoenix must push the pace, get Thomas and Copper downhill, and continue to draw fouls. If they can replicate their defensive intensity from the last matchup, they’ll be in position to sweep the season series.

Head-to-Head & Trends

Season Series: Phoenix leads 1-0

Last Meeting: Mercury 89, Liberty 81 (June 19, 2025)

Next Meetings: July 25 (NY), August 30 (PHX)

Win Probability: Liberty 55.2%, Mercury 44.8%

Recent Form (Last 5 Games)

Liberty: 3-2 Avg. 83.2 PPG 45.1% FG

Mercury: 5-0 Avg. 86.4 PPG 46.3% FG

Tactical Insight & Prediction

Expect a high-tempo, physical battle between two of the league’s most talented rosters. If Stewart and Ionescu can find their rhythm early, New York has the edge. But Phoenix’s momentum and home-court advantage make them a dangerous opponent.