The College Football Playoff semifinals kick off with an intriguing matchup between the No. 10-seeded Miami Hurricanes and the No. 6-seeded Ole Miss Rebels, two programs chasing their first national titles in decades. Miami, representing the ACC, stunned No. 2 Ohio State 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl quarterfinal to advance, while Ole Miss, from the SEC, upset No. 3 Georgia 39-34 in the Sugar Bowl.
This game marks a rare encounter between the teams, with high stakes as the winner advances to the national championship game on January 20 in Atlanta.
Venue Location
State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, home of the NFL’s Arizona Cardinals and a frequent host of major college football events. The domed venue ensures weather won’t directly impact play, though the retractable roof could be open depending on conditions.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (4:30 p.m. PT / 5:30 p.m. MST / 6:30 p.m. CT). The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Weather Forecast
Glendale’s forecast for game day calls for partly sunny skies with a high of around 55°F during the day, dropping to a low of 37°F in the evening. There’s an 80% chance of precipitation, potentially including showers, with winds around 10 mph. However, as State Farm Stadium is climate-controlled and often plays with the roof closed for night games, on-field conditions should remain ideal.
Injury Report
Both teams enter relatively healthy but with key question marks that could sway the game.
Miami Hurricanes
- Out: LB Malik Bryant (undisclosed), WR Daylyn Upshaw (foot), DL Donta Simpson (undisclosed).
- Questionable: DB Damari Brown (undisclosed), DL Cole McConathy II (undisclosed), DL Ahmad Moten Sr. (undisclosed).
- Probable: DB OJ Frederique Jr. (undisclosed; progressing well after being stretchered off in the Cotton Bowl but spotted in full-contact practice).
Miami’s secondary could be thin if Brown and Moten sit, but Frederique’s likely return is a boost against Ole Miss’ explosive passing attack.
Ole Miss Rebels
- Out: CB Cedrick Beavers (undisclosed), LB Raymond Collins (undisclosed), OL PJ Wilkins (undisclosed), OL John Wayne Oliver (undisclosed).
- Questionable: DE Kam Franklin (concussion protocol).
- Probable: WR Cayden Lee (undisclosed; expected to play).
Ole Miss’ offensive line depth is tested, which could expose QB Trinidad Chambliss to Miami’s fierce pass rush. Franklin’s status is critical for containing Miami’s run game.
Key Player Matchups
This semifinal hinges on trench warfare and explosive plays. Here are the pivotal battles:
- Miami’s Edge Rushers (Rueben Bain Jr. & Akheem Mesidor) vs. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss & OL: Miami’s disruptive front four generated pressure without blitzing against Ohio State, limiting big plays. Chambliss, a former Division II standout, thrives off-script with deep shots but could falter if contained. Ole Miss’ weakened OL must protect to allow Chambliss (3,660 passing yards this season) to exploit Miami’s secondary.
- Ole Miss WR Harrison Wallace III vs. Miami DBs (OJ Frederique Jr. & Damari Brown): Wallace, a Penn State transfer, exploded for his first 100-yard game since Week 2 in the Sugar Bowl. Miami’s corners, if healthy, must lock down Ole Miss’ vertical threats. A turnover-prone secondary could be exposed if Brown sits.
- Miami QB Carson Beck vs. Ole Miss DC Pete Golding’s Defense: Beck (3,313 passing yards, 27 TDs) orchestrated the upset over Ohio State but faces a resilient Ole Miss unit under interim head coach Golding. Ole Miss must pressure Beck without overcommitting, as Miami’s RBs Mark Fletcher Jr. (947 rushing yards) and CharMar Brown (401 yards) can grind out yards.
- Ole Miss RB Kewan Lacy vs. Miami’s Run Defense: Lacy (sophomore standout) rushed for 143 yards against Mississippi State. Miami’s front seven, which stifled Ohio State’s run game, must contain him to force Ole Miss into predictable passing situations.
Recent Team Forms
Miami Hurricanes (12-2 overall, 6-2 ACC)
Miami started 4-0 with wins over No. 6 Notre Dame (27-24), Bethune-Cookman (45-3), No. 18 USF (49-12), and Florida (26-7). They split key ACC games, beating No. 18 FSU (28-22) but losing to Louisville (24-21). The Hurricanes have won their last six, including CFP victories: 10-3 over Texas A&M (first round) and 24-14 over Ohio State (quarterfinal). Their defense has been elite lately, allowing just 14 points per game in the playoffs.
Ole Miss Rebels (13-1 overall, 7-1 SEC)
Ole Miss opened 4-0, including wins over Georgia State (63-7), Kentucky (30-23), Arkansas (41-35), and Tulane (45-10). Their lone loss was 43-35 to No. 9 Georgia. They’ve since won eight straight, including a 24-19 thriller over No. 4 LSU, 34-26 at No. 13 Oklahoma, and CFP triumphs: 41-10 over Tulane (first round) and 39-34 over Georgia (quarterfinal). The Rebels have scored 30+ points in eight consecutive games.
Conference vs. Conference:
ACC vs. SEC
This pits the ACC against the SEC, two powerhouse leagues. Historically, the SEC holds a strong edge in interconference games, with a 64.5% win rate overall against the ACC (359-195-10) and a 60.1% bowl win rate since 1998. However, this bowl season has been rough for the SEC (4-9 record), while the ACC is 8-4. Expect a physical, high-scoring affair highlighting SEC speed vs. ACC physicality.
Series History
The teams have met just three times, all in Miami, with Ole Miss holding a 2-1 edge. The Rebels won 21-7 in 1940 and 27-7 in 1947, while Miami won the last matchup 20-7 in 1951. This is their first encounter in over 74 years and first in a postseason game.
Betting Trends
- Miami: 6-8 ATS this season (42.9% cover rate), but 4-1 ATS in their last five as favorites. The under has hit in five of their last seven games.
- Ole Miss: 7-7 ATS (50% cover rate), 5-0 ATS in their last five as underdogs. The over has hit in eight straight games, reflecting their explosive offense.
Miami is 3-2 ATS against SEC teams historically in bowls, while Ole Miss is 4-2 ATS in recent postseason games.
Historical Betting Results
In bowl games since 1998, the SEC has a strong 53.9% ATS record (131-109), outperforming the ACC’s 50% (106-102). Head-to-head in bowls, the SEC is 128-90 overall but has struggled this season (4-9 straight-up). ACC teams have covered at 46.9% in recent bowls vs. non-conference foes. Expect value on the over, given both teams’ trends toward high-scoring affairs.
Game Odds
Miami-FL Hurricanes – 3
Mississippi Rebels 52.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Wednesday, January 7, 2025
