The 2026 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game features the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-3) against the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (13-0). This matchup pits Alabama’s storied program, seeking its 18th national title under head coach Kalen DeBoer, against an undefeated Indiana team making its first CFP appearance after a historic Big Ten championship run led by Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Alabama advanced with a comeback win over Oklahoma in the first round, while Indiana earned a bye as the top seed. As a neutral-site clash in one of college football’s most iconic venues, the game highlights the SEC’s athleticism versus the Big Ten’s discipline, with Indiana favored but Alabama’s experience posing a threat for an upset.
Venue Location
The game will be held at Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasadena, California. This historic 92,542-capacity venue, known as “The Granddaddy of Them All,” has hosted the Rose Bowl since 1923 and provides a picturesque setting with the San Gabriel Mountains as a backdrop.
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Pasadena’s location favors fan travel from both coasts, creating a vibrant atmosphere for this CFP quarterfinal.
Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET (1:00 p.m. PT). The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Weather Forecast
Pasadena’s forecast for January 1, 2026, calls for periods of rain with temperatures rising from the upper 50s°F at kickoff to the low 60s°F by game’s end. Expect a 60-80% chance of precipitation, potentially impacting passing games and field conditions, with light winds around 3-4 mph.
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Rain could favor ground-heavy strategies, benefiting both teams’ rushing attacks.
Injury Report and Opt-Outs
As a CFP quarterfinal, opt-outs are limited, with players prioritizing a title run. Alabama deals with defensive line injuries, while Indiana’s receiving corps is thinned but core intact.
- Alabama Crimson Tide:
- Questionable: DL Tim Keenan III (undisclosed injury).
- Probable: DE LT Overton (undisclosed health issue; cleared after missing last two games).
- Out: DE Jah-Marien Latham (season-ending).
- Out: DT Jeremiah Beaman (season-ending).
- Out: RB Kevin Riley (jaw injury).
Alabama’s defensive front is compromised, potentially weakening run defense against Indiana’s balanced attack.
- Indiana Hoosiers:
- Out: WR Omar Cooper Jr. (injured in Big Ten Championship).
- Out/Transfer: WR Makai Jackson (transfer portal).
Indiana’s passing game takes a hit without Cooper, putting more pressure on QB Fernando Mendoza and other receivers.
Key Player Matchups
Alabama’s opportunistic defense faces Indiana’s explosive offense, led by Heisman winner Mendoza. Rain could amplify trench battles.
- Alabama QB Ty Simpson vs. Indiana Secondary: Simpson (efficient in recent starts, e.g., 200+ yards vs. Missouri) must exploit Indiana’s coverage, but the Hoosiers’ DBs limit big plays.
- Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza vs. Alabama Pass Rush: Mendoza (Heisman winner, uber-talented) faces Alabama’s front, thinned by injuries but capable of pressure.
- Alabama Rushing Attack vs. Indiana Run Defense: Alabama’s ground game tests Indiana’s front; key for controlling tempo in rain.
- Indiana Pass-Catchers vs. Alabama Secondary: Without Cooper, Mendoza relies on others against Alabama’s DBs.
Alabama’s chaos factor could disrupt, but Indiana’s consistency gives them edges.
Recent Team Forms
- Alabama Crimson Tide: 11-3 overall (7-1 SEC), resilient with wins like 27-24 at Missouri, 37-20 vs. Tennessee, but losses to top foes. Last five: W (Tennessee), W (Missouri), L (assumed ranked), W, W (Oklahoma CFP).
Form: W-W-L-W-W.
- Indiana Hoosiers: 13-0 overall (9-0 Big Ten), dominant with blowouts like 38-13 vs. Michigan State, 56-6 vs. UCLA, 55-10 at Maryland. Last five: W (MSU), W (UCLA), W (Maryland), W (Big Ten Champ), Bye.
Form: W-W-W-W (Bye).
Conference vs. Conference
SEC vs. Big Ten: Big Ten leads 2025-26 bowls 5-0 early, overall 11-6, flipping historical SEC dominance (296-221-9 all-time bowls). Big Ten’s 3-1 vs. SEC in non-CFP bowls highlights rising parity.
Betting Trends
- Alabama: 9-5 ATS overall, 7-1 SU/ATS in last eight bowls, but 3-8 ATS in last 11 high-level games.
- Indiana: 8-5 ATS, strong as favorites (8-5 O/U in wins).
- General: Favorites 8-2 ATS in recent Cotton Bowls; under in low-total games.
Historical Betting Results
For Rose Bowl: Favorites cover 8-2 ATS last 10; under hits in low totals (≤46). Big Ten underdogs vs. SEC: Mixed, but Alabama 4-1 vs. Big Ten in postseason recently.
Game Odds
Alabama Crimson Tide 47.5
Indiana Hoosiers – 6.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, December 31, 2025
