The 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl features a top-25 showdown between the No. 23 Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) and the No. 14 Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2). This matchup contrasts Iowa’s trademark stout defense and ground-and-pound offense with Vanderbilt’s breakout season under head coach Clark Lea, highlighted by upset wins and a dynamic quarterback. As a neutral-site game, it caps off Vanderbilt’s best campaign in decades while giving Iowa a chance to upset a ranked SEC foe. The teams have no prior history, making this a novel encounter in a bowl with a tradition of competitive Big Ten-SEC clashes.
Venue Location
The game will be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. This 65,000-seat venue, home to the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers, has hosted the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly the Outback Bowl) since 1999, offering a lively atmosphere with favorable sightlines and modern amenities.
Tampa’s warm climate and proximity to both fanbases should draw a balanced crowd, though Vanderbilt’s Southern roots might give them a slight edge in attendance.
Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET (11:00 a.m. CT / 9:00 a.m. PT). The game will air on ESPN.
Weather Forecast
Tampa’s forecast for December 31, 2025, calls for mild, comfortable conditions with highs around 73°F and lows near 59°F. Expect partly cloudy skies with a low 10-20% chance of scattered showers, light winds at 5-10 mph, and moderate humidity. These conditions favor passing games but won’t significantly hinder play, though any rain could slicken the field slightly for early-afternoon action.
Injury Report and Opt-Outs
Bowl season often sees roster changes, but both teams enter relatively intact, with minimal opt-outs emphasizing program culture. Iowa boasts zero declared opt-outs, while Vanderbilt loses one key contributor.
- Iowa Hawkeyes:
- Returning: CB TJ Hall (expected back from undisclosed injury; missed final two regular-season games but spotted at practice).
- No opt-outs reported; full roster expected, per head coach Kirk Ferentz and OC Tim Lester.
Iowa’s depth remains strong, particularly on defense, allowing them to maintain their physical style.
- Vanderbilt Commodores:
- Opt-Out: TE Eli Stowers (NFL Draft prep; nation’s top tight end with significant production).
- Minimal transfers (four announced, all low-impact players unlikely to see snaps).
- Otherwise healthy; no major injuries reported heading into the game.
Vanderbilt’s losses are limited, but Stowers’ absence thins their receiving options, putting more onus on backups.
Both programs highlight team unity, with Iowa’s lack of opt-outs attributed to strong bonds and Vanderbilt seeing few departures despite their breakthrough year.
Key Player Matchups
This game could boil down to Iowa’s elite defense (allowing just 270.6 yards per game) against Vanderbilt’s explosive offense (averaging 32.8 points).
Key battles include:
- Iowa QB Mark Gronowski vs. Vanderbilt Secondary: Gronowski, a dual-threat leader, will test Vanderbilt’s pass defense (allowing 23.1 points per game).
- With receivers like Kaleb Moulton and return specialist Kaden Wetjen, he could exploit mismatches if protected. Vanderbilt’s CB Martel Hight and S Marlen Sewell must contain big plays.
- Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia vs. Iowa Pass Rush: Pavia (2,841 passing yards, 22 TDs; 812 rushing yards, 8 TDs) is a Heisman dark horse whose mobility drives Vanderbilt’s attack. He’ll face Iowa’s front seven, led by DE Ethan Hurkett and LB Jayden Montgomery, who rank top-10 nationally in sacks (3.2 per game).
If Iowa contains Pavia’s scrambling, they control the tempo.
- Iowa Rushing Attack vs. Vanderbilt Run Defense: Iowa’s ground game (led by RBs Jaziun Patterson and Xavier Williams) averages 158 yards per game.
They’ll challenge Vanderbilt’s front, anchored by DE Zaylin Wood and LB Bryan Longwell, which has improved but allowed 4.1 yards per carry.
- Breakout Potential: Watch Iowa S Xavier Nwankpa (interception leader) for turnover creation, and Vanderbilt RB Sedrick Alexander (1,000+ yards) to exploit gaps if Stowers’ absence opens lanes.
Iowa’s physicality could wear down Vanderbilt, but Pavia’s playmaking gives the Commodores an edge in explosive potential.
Recent Team Forms
- Iowa Hawkeyes: Finished 8-4 (6-3 Big Ten), with a gritty style yielding wins like 37-0 over Wisconsin, 25-24 over Penn State, and 41-3 over Minnesota, but losses to top teams like Oregon (18-16).
They averaged 28.9 points in wins but struggled offensively in defeats. Form (last five): W-W-L-W-W.
- Vanderbilt Commodores: Went 10-2 (6-2 SEC), their best record since 2018, with statement wins like 31-24 over LSU, 45-24 over Tennessee, and 44-20 over Virginia Tech, offset by losses to Alabama (30-14) and Georgia.
Pavia fueled a late surge. Form (last five): W-W-W-L-W.
Vanderbilt enters hotter, but Iowa’s consistency against ranked foes keeps it intriguing.
Conference vs. Conference
A classic Big Ten vs. SEC battle, where the Big Ten’s discipline meets the SEC’s athleticism. The Big Ten leads 11-6 in 2025-26 bowls overall, going 4-1 against the SEC in recent postseason games, flipping historical trends where the SEC holds a 68-36 all-time bowl edge.
Betting Trends
- Iowa: 8-3-1 ATS overall, excelling at 6-5-1 as underdogs and 6-6-1 on totals. They’ve covered in 4 of 5 recent games against ranked opponents but lean under in low-scoring affairs (average total 45.2).
- Vanderbilt: 9-3 ATS, strong at 7-1 as favorites and 8-4 on over/unders. They’ve covered 80% of spreads in wins, thriving in high-upset scenarios.
- General: Vanderbilt is 6-1 SU in their last seven, while Iowa is 3-2 ATS as underdogs of 4+ points.
Historical Betting Results
With no head-to-head history, look to ReliaQuest Bowl trends: Favorites have covered 60% of spreads since 2010, with the under hitting in 7 of the last 10 games (averaging 48 points). Big Ten teams are 5-3 ATS in this bowl against SEC foes, often in close contests.
Game Odds
Iowa Hawkeyes 46.5
Vanderbilt Commodores – 4
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Tuesday, December 30, 2025
