The 2025 Rate Bowl features the New Mexico Lobos (Mountain West) against the Minnesota Golden Gophers (Big Ten) in a postseason clash between a high-powered offense and a stout defense. New Mexico brings a 9-3 record, riding a hot streak, while Minnesota enters at 7-5 after a solid Big Ten campaign. This marks the first-ever meeting between the programs. Below is a detailed breakdown of the matchup.
Venue Location
Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona. This retractable-roof stadium, home to MLB’s Arizona Diamondbacks, hosts the game in a controlled environment, though the roof may be open depending on conditions.
Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET (2:30 p.m. MT). The game will air on ESPN and its streaming platforms.
usatoday.com +3
Note: While the query references December 25, official sources confirm the date as December 26.
Weather Forecast
Chase Field’s retractable roof minimizes weather impacts, but if open, conditions matter. Phoenix’s forecast for December 25, 2025, shows highs around 70°F with possible rain on Christmas Eve and Day, potentially lingering into the 26th. Expect mild temperatures in the mid-60s to low 70s on game day, with a chance of scattered showers or cooler winds—low impact overall in a dome-like setting.
Injury Report
Both teams have managed injuries throughout the season, with depth tested in this bowl.
- New Mexico Lobos: Offensive guard E. Harris is out for the season with an undisclosed injury. Tight end Marcus Vinson (11/22 injury), running back Ray Iwai (10/25), wide receiver Kader Diop (10/24), and wide receiver Evan Wysong (8/29) are sidelined or limited. Safety D. Speech is questionable (undisclosed), and wide receiver Keagan Johnson may miss time. Offensive lineman Sheridan is out for the season (undisclosed), while Slayton is uncertain. These could strain NM’s explosive offense if key skill players are unavailable.
- Minnesota Golden Gophers: Linebacker Gerlach is out for the season (undisclosed). Defensive lineman Beaman is out (lower body), and wide receiver Keenan III is uncertain (undisclosed). Running back Caleb Komolafe’s status is unclear (undisclosed) heading into the bowl. Defensive back Garrison Monroe and offensive lineman Matt Kingsbury were out late in the regular season and may not play. Safety Turner is out for the year (undisclosed). Minnesota’s defense remains strong, but backfield depth could be an issue.
Key Player Matchups
The game could turn on New Mexico’s dynamic offense challenging Minnesota’s physical Big Ten defense, particularly in the trenches and secondary.
- NM QB Devon Dampier vs. MN LB Maverick Baranowski: Dampier leads NM’s high-octane attack with dual-threat ability, but Baranowski’s tackling prowess (team-high) could disrupt rhythm and force turnovers.
- NM RB Eli Sanders vs. MN DL Deven Eastern: Sanders has rushed for over 1,000 yards, powering NM’s ground game. Eastern anchors Minnesota’s line and must contain him to limit big plays.
- MN QB Max Brosmer vs. NM S Christian Ellis: Brosmer’s efficiency (over 2,500 passing yards) faces Ellis, NM’s interception leader, in a secondary vulnerable to the pass.
- MN RB Darius Taylor vs. NM DL Destin Gainer: Taylor’s explosiveness (nearly 1,000 yards) tests Gainer’s edge-rushing ability to stuff runs and pressure the pocket.
Other watch: NM WR Nic Trujillo could exploit mismatches against MN CB Justin Walley in the air game.
Recent Team Forms
- New Mexico Lobos (9-3, 6-2 MW): The Lobos started 0-3 but flipped the script with a six-game win streak to close, including a perfect 6-0 home record—their first since 1967. They averaged 335 points scored, showing offensive firepower but defensive inconsistencies in losses to top foes like Michigan.
- Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-5, 5-4 Big Ten): The Gophers had a balanced year in a tough conference, winning key games like against Michigan State but dropping close ones. They finished strong with a 7-5 mark, emphasizing defense (allowing under 20 points in wins) while the offense showed flashes.
Conference vs Conference
Mountain West vs. Big Ten. The Big Ten holds a dominant historical edge, with a 68-11 record against MW teams, highlighting superior physicality and depth in cross-conference play. MW squads often rely on speed, but Big Ten programs have won 86% of matchups.
Series History
This is the first-ever matchup between New Mexico and Minnesota. No prior games exist in their histories.
Betting Trends
- New Mexico: 6-2 ATS in last 8 as underdogs; 3-1 SU/ATS in games with lines between +3 and -3 under coach Eck; but 3-17 SU in last 20 Friday games. Strong in bowls as dogs.
- Minnesota: 7-5 ATS overall; 4-1 ATS in last 5 neutral-site games; Big Ten teams 6-1 ATS in last 7 Rate Bowls. Favors in close spreads but inconsistent covering small numbers.
- Game-Specific: Unders have hit in 10 of last 12 Rate Bowls; public on Minnesota, but sharps leaning NM +2.5 in a low-scoring tilt.
Historical Betting Results
The Rate Bowl (formerly Cactus/Insight) has seen favorites go 10-8 ATS since 2005, with unders dominating (12 of 18). Big Ten teams are 6-1 ATS in this bowl’s history. No series history means no direct H2H betting data, but MW underdogs vs. Big Ten have covered 4 of last 7 in bowls.
Game Odds
New Mexico Lobos 43.5
Minnesota Golden Gophers – 2.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, December 25, 2025
