Bay Hill Club & Lodge – Orlando, Florida
Tee-Off is scheduled for March 5–8, 2026
Purse: $20,000,000 | Winner’s Share: $4,000,000 | FedExCup Points: 700
Signature Event – Limited field of 72, cut after 36 holes (top 50 + ties + anyone within 10 shots of the lead)
Venue & Course Overview
Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge (Bay Hill, FL – a southwest Orlando suburb).
Par 72 | 7,466 yards | Bermuda greens & rough | Rating/Slope: 76.4/138
This classic Dick Wilson design (with decades of Palmer tweaks) features water in play on 14+ holes, generous but strategically placed fairways, and a brutal closing stretch (holes 16–18: reachable par-5, long par-3 over water, dogleg par-4 with water left). It plays like a “U.S. Open Lite” – one of the toughest non-major setups on the PGA Tour. The past nine editions have produced scoring averages over par, rewarding elite ball-striking, precise iron play, scrambling, and bogey avoidance far more than raw distance.2026 Course Conditions (as of early-week reports): Firm and fast Bermuda surfaces expected after a dry Florida winter. Rough will be “major-championship thick” (Bermuda overseeded with rye). Greens running 12–13 on the Stimpmeter by weekend. Wind is the great equalizer here – even 10–15 mph breezes make approach shots and lag putting extremely difficult.
Weather Forecast (Orlando/Bay Hill – March 5–8, 2026)
Classic early-March Central Florida conditions: warm, mostly sunny, light winds, low rain risk.
- Thursday (Rd 1): High 81–83°F (27–28°C), low ~68°F overnight. Mostly sunny, 10–15% rain chance. East winds 8–12 mph.
- Friday (Rd 2): High 82–84°F, low ~67°F. Sunny to partly cloudy, <10% rain. Winds 6–10 mph.
- Saturday (Rd 3): High 80–82°F, low ~66°F. Mostly sunny, 15% rain chance. Light variable winds.
- Sunday (Final Rd): High 79–82°F, low ~65°F. Partly cloudy, 20% isolated shower risk late. Winds 8–12 mph.
Ideal scoring weather early, with potential for the course to firm up and play even tougher by the weekend if winds increase.
Tournament History
Hosted at Bay Hill since 1979 (48th edition in 2026). Arnold Palmer’s personal playground and one of the most prestigious non-majors on the schedule.
Recent Winners:
- 2025: Russell Henley (−11)
- 2024: Scottie Scheffler (−15)
- 2023: Kurt Kitayama (−9)
- 2022: Scottie Scheffler (−5)
- 2021: Bryson DeChambeau (−11)
- 2020: Tyrrell Hatton (−4)
- 2018: Rory McIlroy (−18)
- Tiger Woods owns the all-time record with 8 victories (last in 2013).
Only two successful defenses in the last 50+ years (Matt Every 2014–15). Past champions in 2026 field: Scheffler (2×), McIlroy, Henley, Kitayama, Day.
Key Player Matchups & Storylines
The Big Three Favorites
- Scottie Scheffler (+300 to +340) – World No. 1, two-time Bay Hill winner (2022, 2024), never finished worse than T25 in five starts. Coming off T12 at Genesis (ended 18 straight top-10s) but historically bounces back instantly. Elite in SG: Approach & Around-the-Green – exactly what Bay Hill demands.
- Rory McIlroy (+950 to +1000) – 2018 champion, T2 in 2023. Fresh off strong TGL play and always dangerous when motivated heading into Masters season.
- Russell Henley (+3000 to +3700) – Defending champion. Seeks rare back-to-back (first since Every in 2015). Exceptional iron player and putter; posted bogey-free Friday en route to 2025 title.
Other Contenders to Watch
- Tommy Fleetwood (+1750–1900) – Consistent performer at tough tracks.
- Xander Schauffele / Matt Fitzpatrick / Collin Morikawa (+2200–3100) – All elite ball-strikers with strong Bay Hill history (Morikawa was runner-up in 2025).
- Justin Thomas (+5500) – First TOUR start since November 2025 back surgery. TGL rust-buster completed; T12 here in 2024. High-upside return spot.
- Sungjae Im (+10000) – Season debut after wrist injury; loves Florida tracks.
- Longshots with course affinity: Si Woo Kim, Harris English, Kurt Kitayama, Jordan Spieth (multiple top-5s here).
Notable Field Notes: Every top-10 (and top-20) OWGR player is in. Jacob Bridgeman (FedExCup leader), Nico Echavarria (last week’s Cognizant winner), and sponsor exemptions (Spieth, Horschel, Kirk) round out the star power.
Recent Player Forms (Last 5–6 Starts Entering the Week)
- Scheffler: T12 (Genesis), multiple wins earlier in 2026 swing – still the most consistent player on Earth.
- McIlroy: Strong TGL form; solid but winless in early 2026 events.
- Henley: Defending champ + consistent top-25 machine.
- Fleetwood / Fitzpatrick: Multiple top-10s in 2026.
- Hot recent: Bridgeman (Genesis win), Echavarria (Cognizant win), Chris Gotterup, Ben Griffin.
Betting Trends
- Favorites dominate: 8 of last 10 winners were pre-tournament top-15 in betting odds.
- Ball-striking rules: Top-10 finishers routinely rank high in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, and GIR %.
- Winning score usually −8 to −15 (average ~−10).
- Strong history players outperform: Past champions and multiple top-15 finishers here cash far above odds.
- Windy/firm years (like 2025) reward scramblers and putters (Henley profile).
- First-round scoring is often inflated; come-from-behind winners common (cut is brutal).
