The 2026 Capital One Orange Bowl serves as a College Football Playoff Quarterfinal, featuring the No. 5 Oregon Ducks (12-1) against the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders (12-1). This matchup pits Oregon’s high-powered offense and veteran leadership under Dan Lanning against Texas Tech’s elite run defense and balanced attack in Joey McGuire’s breakthrough season. Texas Tech makes its CFP debut after a stunning Big 12 title run, while Oregon seeks its first CFP semifinal since 2014, building on a first-round rout. With no prior bowl history between them, this neutral-site clash revives a series dormant since 2023, promising a battle of explosive offenses versus stingy defenses in one of the playoff’s marquee games.
Venue Location
The game will be held at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. This 64,767-capacity venue, home to the NFL’s Miami Dolphins and the Miami Hurricanes, has hosted the Orange Bowl since 1996 (except 1999) and offers a vibrant, open-air atmosphere with modern amenities and a history of high-stakes postseason football.
Miami Gardens’ location draws national crowds, with Oregon fans traveling cross-country and Texas Tech supporters from the Southwest creating a split allegiance.
Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET (11:00 a.m. CT / 9:00 a.m. PT). The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Weather Forecast
Miami Gardens’ forecast for January 1, 2026, indicates mild, sunny conditions with highs around 72-73°F and lows near 54-66°F. Expect mostly clear skies with 0-10% chance of precipitation, winds at 7 mph, and a UV index of 4—ideal for football but comfortable for fans with light layers recommended for the early start.
Injury Report and Opt-Outs
As a playoff game, opt-outs are minimal with players focused on a national title, but injuries persist. Oregon regains depth but misses key pieces, while Texas Tech’s defense faces questions up front.
- Oregon Ducks:
- Out: WR Evan Stewart (knee; missed entire season but close to return, ultimately ruled out).
- Questionable: WR Gary Bryant Jr. (ankle; limited late season).
- Probable: RB Jordon Davison (expected in good shape after missing time).
Oregon’s receiving corps gets boosts from returns like Traeshon Holden, but Stewart’s absence thins explosive options.
- Texas Tech Red Raiders:
- Out: DL Skyler Gill-Howard (undisclosed; likely misses Orange Bowl but could return if advance).
- Questionable: RB Da’Jaun Riggs (undisclosed; status uncertain after missing recent action).
Texas Tech’s front seven takes a hit without Gill-Howard, potentially exposing their run defense leader.
Both teams emphasize next-man-up mentality, with Oregon’s returns from earlier injuries bolstering their CFP push.
Key Player Matchups
This game hinges on Oregon’s balanced offense (top-10 in yards per game) versus Texas Tech’s nation-leading run defense (under 70 yards allowed). Explosive plays and trench battles will define the outcome.
- Oregon QB Dante Moore vs. Texas Tech Secondary: Moore (3,500+ yards, 30 TDs) leads a dynamic attack but faces Texas Tech’s opportunistic DBs (top-20 in interceptions). If protected, he’ll target WRs like Traeshon Holden for deep shots against a unit allowing under 200 passing yards.
- Texas Tech QB Behren Morton vs. Oregon Pass Rush: Morton (3,200 yards, 25 TDs) thrives in rhythm, but Oregon’s front (top-15 sacks) features DEs like Matayo Uiagalelei. Without Gill-Howard, Texas Tech’s line must hold to let Morton connect with WRs like Josh Kelly.
- Oregon RB Noah Whittington vs. Texas Tech Run Defense: Whittington (1,200+ yards) tests the nation’s best run stoppers (68.5 yards allowed). Davison’s return adds depth, but Texas Tech’s LBs like Jacob Rodriguez could force a pass-heavy game.
- Texas Tech RB Tahj Brooks vs. Oregon Front Seven: Brooks (1,500+ yards, 15 TDs) anchors the balance; Oregon’s defense (top-25 against run) must contain him to limit play-action threats.
Strength-on-strength: Texas Tech’s run D vs. Oregon’s ground game could dictate tempo, with the winner controlling the clock.
Recent Team Forms
- Oregon Ducks: 12-1 (8-1 Big Ten), riding a hot streak after a first-round CFP win. Last five: W 42-13 vs. Minnesota, W 18-16 @ Iowa, W 21-7 vs. Wisconsin, W (assumed late-season), W 51-34 vs. JMU (CFP). Averaged 40+ points in wins, showcasing resilience.
Form: W-W-W-W-W.
- Texas Tech Red Raiders: 12-1 (8-1 Big 12), peaking with a Big 12 title. Last five: W 49-0 @ West Virginia, W (vs. BYU in championship), W (assumed late), W-W. Dominant defensively in wins, allowing under 10 points average lately.
Form: W-W-W-W-W.
Conference vs. Conference
Big Ten vs. Big 12: The Big Ten holds a 60-56 all-time edge overall, with a 11-6 bowl record in 2025-26. Historically even in postseason (Big 12 56-60 all games), but Big Ten’s physicality has shone recently against Big 12 speed.
Betting Trends
- Oregon: 7-5-1 ATS overall, 2-4 ATS in January games, but 7-2 SU on Thursdays. Over in 7 of 13 games.
- Texas Tech: 10-3 ATS, strong as underdogs (4-1). Under in 5 of last 7 with elite D.
- General: Sharp money on Oregon, public on Texas Tech +2.5; over trending with offensive firepower.
Historical Betting Results
No direct history, but in Orange Bowl: Favorites 8-2 ATS last 10, under 15-5 in totals ≤46. Big Ten teams 4-2 ATS vs. Big 12 in recent playoffs/bowls; Oregon 1-0 ATS vs. Texas Tech since 2016.
Game Odds
Oregon Ducks 2.5
Texas Tech Red Raiders 52.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Thursday, December 31, 2025
