Venue Location
Amalie Arena (capacity ~19,092 for hockey), Tampa, Florida. Home of the Lightning since 1996, this arena features excellent sightlines, a lively atmosphere boosted by Tampa’s passionate fan base, and a fast ice surface that favors skilled, high-pace teams. The Lightning have a strong home record this season (18-9-0), and the building often becomes a tough environment for visiting teams during playoff pushes or key divisional games.
Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET
- TV: TNT (national broadcast)
- Streaming: ESPN+ (out-of-market)
- Puck drop at 7:30 PM ET; doors/gates typically open ~6:00–6:30 PM.
Injury Report
Toronto Maple Leafs
- Christopher Tanev (D): Out (groin, LTIR/IR) – long-term, expected return around early March.
- Morgan Rielly (D): Day-to-Day (upper body) – left recent game, questionable; practiced limited but status uncertain.
- Joseph Woll (G): Day-to-Day (illness) – questionable; impacts goaltending depth.
- Max Domi (C): Day-to-Day (personal) – questionable.
- Dakota Joshua (C): Out (upper body/kidney) – expected out.
Tampa Bay Lightning
- Brayden Point (C): Out (lower body) – IR, significant loss to top-six offense.
- Anthony Cirelli (C): Out (upper body) – key center depth hit.
- Nicholas Paul (LW): Out (undisclosed).
- Victor Hedman (D): Day-to-Day (lower body) – questionable; major if out (defensive anchor).
- Emil Martinsen Lilleberg (D): Out (undisclosed).
- Charle-Edouard D’Astous (D): Out (lower body).
- Maxwell Crozier (D): Out for season (abdomen).
Both teams are dealing with key absences, but Tampa’s injuries to top forwards (Point, Cirelli) and potential Hedman absence hurt more than Toronto’s defensive hits.
Recent Team Forms
Maple Leafs (approx. 4-5-1 in last 10, ~3.3–3.4 GF/g, ~3.4–3.5 GA/g)
- Mixed post-break: Wins in recent outings but defensive lapses. Last 5: W W W L L (streak W3 in some reports but overall inconsistent). Strong power play (18.8%) but goaltending variability (.894 team SV%). Rely on stars like Matthews, Nylander, Marner for scoring bursts.
Lightning (8-1-1 or strong in last 10, ~3.5+ GF/g, ~2.5 GA/g)
- Red-hot: W5 streak or 8-1-1 recent; explosive offense (16 goals in last 3 games per some previews). Last 5: W W W W W. Elite power play (22.4%), stingy defense (.906 SV%), and depth scoring even with injuries. Home dominance key.
Series History (2025-26 Season)
Toronto leads season series 1-0 (limited meetings so far).
- December 9, 2025 @ Toronto: Maple Leafs 2-0 Lightning (shutout win).
- All-time: Competitive rivalry (Tampa has playoff edge historically), but Toronto won the only prior 2025-26 matchup. Recent trends: Toronto 7-1 SU in last 8 road games vs. Tampa (notable historical upset potential).
Key Player Matchups
- Auston Matthews / William Nylander / Mitch Marner (TOR top line) vs. Lightning top D (Hedman if in, Sergachev/Raddysh): Matthews’ shot volume and Nylander’s playmaking test Tampa’s depleted blue line.
- Nikita Kucherov / Jake Guentzel / Brandon Hagel (TBL top line) vs. Toronto shutdown D (Benoit/Tanev out, McCabe/Knies): Kucherov (elite scorer) thrives at home; Toronto must limit his space.
- Goaltending: Toronto tandem (.894 SV%, illness concerns) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy or backup (.910 SV% team) – edge to Tampa if Vasy starts healthy.
- Special Teams: Tampa PP (22.4%) vs. Toronto PK; Toronto’s road PK must contain Kucherov/Point (if in).
Betting Trends & Insights
- Lightning heavy home favorites; 10-game home win streak or strong recent home form. 27-7-3 when favored heavily.
- Maple Leafs 7-1 SU in last 8 road games vs. Tampa (historical road success).
- Total: OVER in recent high-event games; but some models lean Under 6.5 due to defensive structure.
Game Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs 6.5
Tampa Bay Lightning – 238
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, February 24, 2026
