The 2025-26 NHL season features an inter-conference matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs, who are pushing for a playoff spot in the Atlantic Division amid injury challenges, and the New York Islanders, who sit comfortably in the Metropolitan Division with strong home performances but face their own key absences. Toronto enters with momentum from recent wins, led by Auston Matthews’ scoring surge, while the Islanders aim to rebound from a lopsided loss and leverage their defensive structure. This game at UBS Arena could be decided by special teams, with Toronto’s potent power play testing New York’s penalty kill in what projects as a competitive, mid-scoring affair.
Venue Location
UBS Arena, located in Elmont, New York. This state-of-the-art venue has a capacity of approximately 17,113 for hockey and serves as the home rink for the New York Islanders.
Puckdrop is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET (6:00 p.m. CT, 4:00 p.m. PT).
Injury Report
Toronto Maple Leafs: Defenseman Chris Tanev is out with a groin injury and expected to miss significant time. Forward Dakota Joshua is sidelined with an undisclosed injury. Goaltender Anthony Stolarz has resumed skating but remains out with an upper-body injury, with no firm timetable for return. Forward Auston Matthews was day-to-day with a lower-body issue but recently returned with a hat trick performance.
New York Islanders: Forward Bo Horvat is out at least a week with a lower-body injury sustained in their recent loss. Goaltender Ilya Sorokin has been activated from IR after missing six games with a lower-body injury and is expected to back up. The team is evaluating Horvat’s status for the end of the week.
Key Player Matchups
This contest highlights Toronto’s offensive stars against New York’s balanced attack, with injuries shifting focus to secondary contributors in a battle for puck possession and special teams.
Auston Matthews (TOR, F) vs. Mathew Barzal (NYI, F): Matthews, fresh off a hat trick, brings elite scoring (leading Toronto in goals). Barzal’s speed and playmaking must counter Toronto’s rush to control transitions and create odd-man opportunities.
Mitch Marner (TOR, F) vs. Noah Dobson (NYI, D): Marner’s creativity and assists face Dobson’s blue-line offense and shutdown ability, key for power-play matchups and zone exits.
John Tavares (TOR, F) vs. Brock Nelson (NYI, F): Tavares, facing his former team, brings net-front presence against Nelson’s two-way reliability, potentially deciding faceoffs and secondary scoring.
Joseph Woll (TOR, G) vs. Kyle Palmieri (NYI, F): Woll, Toronto’s likely starter, must handle Palmieri’s shot volume, especially with Horvat out shifting lines.
Recent Team Forms
Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs are 3-1-1 in their last five games, showing improved form with strong offensive outbursts. Recent results: Jan 1 W 6-5 vs. WPG (Matthews hat trick); Dec 30 W 4-0 vs. NJD; Dec 28 L 3-2 OT @ DET; Dec 27 W 7-5 vs. OTT; Dec ? (mixed earlier). They’ve outscored opponents 20-15 in this stretch, bolstered by special teams.
New York Islanders: The Islanders are 2-3-0 in their last five, hampered by defensive lapses. Recent results: Jan 1 L 7-2 vs. UTA; Dec 30 W 3-2 SO @ CHI; Dec 28 L 4-2 @ CBJ; Dec 27 W 2-0 vs. NYR; Dec ? (earlier wins). Outscored 14-17 recently, they’ve leaned on home ice but struggled against high-scoring teams.
Series History
The Maple Leafs hold a slight all-time edge with an 88-90-7-3 record against the Islanders (48.7% win rate). In the last 10 meetings, Toronto is 4-3-3, showing competitive parity. The Islanders have a 38-53-4 record in home games against Toronto across 95 contests. Recent games often go to overtime or shootouts, with Toronto winning the last two but struggling in their last seven overall (2-5 SU).
Betting Trends
Toronto is 2-5 SU in their last seven against the Islanders and 1-4 SU in their last five road games, but 3-2 ATS in recent outings. The over has hit in 14 of Toronto’s last ? (trends vary), averaging 6.2 goals. New York is 1-4 SU in their last five overall but 7-3 ATS at home, with the over going 4-1 recently (6.2 goals average). Head-to-head, Toronto is 4-3-3 in the last 10, but the under has hit in six of 10 (5.2 goals average). Favorites cover 60% in this series.
Game Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs – 112
New York Islanders 5.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, January 2, 2026
