The Toronto Maple Leafs (11-11-3) head south to Sunrise for a pivotal Atlantic Division showdown against the Florida Panthers (12-11-1), two teams jockeying for positioning in the Eastern Conference’s middle pack amid inconsistent starts to the 2025-26 campaign. Toronto seeks a road bounce-back after a mixed November, leaning on Auston Matthews’ sniper touch to crack Florida’s stingy defense (3rd in GA at 2.6 per game), while the Panthers aim to extend their home dominance (8-4-1) and capitalize on a Leafs squad plagued by defensive lapses (28th in GA at 3.6). With playoff ghosts from their 2023 and 2025 postseason clashes lingering—Florida owning both series—this matchup evokes high-stakes tension, potentially hinging on special teams where the Bolts’ 19.3% PP ranks 17th against Toronto’s leaky 80.9% PK (19th). Expect a physical affair with Sergei Bobrovsky’s veteran poise testing Anthony Stolarz’s hot streak (.926 SV% regular season), as the Panthers eye a third straight home win to climb toward contention.
Venue
Venue: Amerant Bank Arena, 1 Seminole Way, Sunrise, FL 33314. Capacity: 19,250. This modern South Florida fortress, the Panthers’ home since 1998 (renamed in 2023), boasts a passionate Rat Pack crowd and state-of-the-art acoustics that amplify every hit and goal—ideal for igniting Florida’s forecheck in this divisional grudge match.
Puckdrop: 7:30 PM ET (4:30 PM PT). Broadcast: ESPN+ (national streaming), Sportsnet Ontario (Leafs local), Bally Sports Florida (Panthers local), NHL Network (highlights). Evening slot draws prime-time viewers, with post-game dissection on NHL Tonight focusing on the Atlantic’s tightening race.
Team Records
| Team | Overall Record | Home/Away Split | Atlantic Division Standings | Key Stats (GF / GA / Power Play %) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 11-11-3 | 6-5-2 Home / 5-6-1 Away | 7th (3-5-2 div.) | 3.4 / 3.6 / 15.0% |
| Florida Panthers | 12-11-1 | 8-4-1 Home / 4-7-0 Away | 4th (4-3-1 div.) | 3.2 / 2.6 / 19.3% |
Toronto ranks 5th in GF (85 total) but 28th in GA (89), highlighting offensive firepower offset by back-end fragility, while Florida’s balanced ledger (7th in conference) stems from elite D (3rd in GA) and a opportunistic PP (17th at 19.3%).
Recent Team Forms
Both squads enter on even keels, with Florida’s home edge contrasting Toronto’s road inconsistencies.
Maple Leafs (2-3-0 in last 5): Toronto snapped a mini-slump with a dominant 7-2 home rout of Pittsburgh on November 29 (Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s goal and assist), but prior: L at Washington (4-2, Nov. 28), W vs. Columbus (2-1 OT, Nov. 26), L at Montreal (5-2, Nov. 22). Averaging 3.6 GF/3.4 GA in the stretch, with William Nylander’s OT winner vs. CBJ highlighting clutch play—road form middling (5-6-1, -0.4 diff.), but ATS 3-2 shows value as underdogs.
Panthers (3-2-0 in last 5): Florida grinded a 5-3 home win over Calgary on November 28 (Sam Bennett’s first-period tally), following a 4-2 W vs. San Jose (Nov. 26), 3-2 OT W at Toronto (Nov. 22? Wait, sequence: W vs. DET 6-3 Nov. 25), L at Boston (3-2, Nov. 23). GF/GA at 3.8/2.8 lately, with Bobrovsky’s .915 SV% anchoring—home streak at three (8-4-1, +1.2 diff.), ATS 4-1.
Injury Report
Toronto’s depth takes hits on the blue line, easing Florida’s forecheck, while the Panthers monitor forward tweaks. Updates as of December 1, 2025 (NHL official report, 6:00 PM ET).
| Team | Player | Status | Injury Details | Impact |
| Maple Leafs | Marshall Rifai (D) | OUT | Wrist (IR-LT since Nov. 28; multi-week). | Third-pair depth (0.2 PTS/GP); exposes back-end (+8% xGA without). |
| Maple Leafs | Brandon Carlo (D) | OUT | Lower body (IR since Nov. 25; expected return Dec. 2, but game-time). | Top-four anchor; rotations shuffle to Timothy Liljegren. |
| Maple Leafs | Connor Dewar (F) | QUESTIONABLE | Upper body (day-to-day; practiced Nov. 30). | Bottom-six energy (0.3 PTS/GP); 70% chance—faceoffs dip if out. |
| Panthers | Matthew Tkachuk (LW) | OUT | Groin (resumed skating; return Dec.-Jan., 4-6 weeks from Nov. 15). | Star winger (0.8 PTS/GP); offense craters (-0.7 GF/60 sans him). |
| Panthers | Anton Lundell (C) | PROBABLE | Maintenance (load-managed; full practice Dec. 1). | Second-line pivot (0.5 PTS/GP); expected, but minutes capped. |
| Panthers | Jonah Gadjovich (F) | OUT | Lower body (IR since Nov. 20; re-eval mid-Dec.). | Enforcer; physicality wanes (-5 hits/GP). |
Panthers’ forward losses tilt even-strength to Toronto’s stars.
Series History
This Atlantic blood feud, dating to 1993, sees Florida with a slight all-time regular-season edge: 56-50-7-5 (.504 win%). Playoff scars define it—Panthers lead 2-0 in series (2023 and 2025 second rounds, both in 5 and 7 games).
Last 10 Meetings: Panthers 6-4, including a 6-1 Game 7 W in 2025 ECF semis (May 18, 2025; Reinhart’s hat trick) and 3-1 regular-season series win (aggregate 13-7, 45.5% PP). Leafs’ last win: 5-4 on Jan. 7, 2025.
At Amerant Bank Arena: Panthers 28-24-4 all-time vs. Toronto; Leafs’ last W there: March 2024 (4-2).
Trends: Overs in 6/10 (avg. 6.2 goals); Florida 7-3 SU last 10 home vs. TOR. Series often low-scoring (under in 7/10 playoffs).
Panthers’ recent mastery (7-4 in 2024-25) looms large.
Key Player Matchups
Tkachuk’s absence spotlights centers and D—these could dictate flow.
Auston Matthews (Leafs C) vs. Aleksander Barkov (Panthers C): Matthews’ sniper scope (tied for team lead at 26P) tests Barkov’s two-way mastery (20G playoffs ’25); faceoff duel (Matthews 53% vs. Barkov 55%) controls tempo—3+ combined points projected.
William Nylander (Leafs RW) vs. Sam Reinhart (Panthers RW): Nylander’s OT magic (15 career) clashes with Reinhart’s postseason pop (23G ’25); PP battle favors Reinhart’s 19.3% unit.
Mitch Marner (Leafs RW) vs. Gustav Forsling (Panthers D): Marner’s creativity (tied team lead 26P) exploits Forsling’s shutdown (+ rating); transition favors FLA (+5 shots projected).
Anthony Stolarz (Leafs G) vs. Sergei Bobrovsky (Panthers G): Stolarz’s rebound (.926 SV%, 2.14 GAA) vs. Bobrovsky’s Vezina form (.915 SV%); quality starts duel tips under.
Leafs’ health edges forwards.
Betting Trends
Moneyline: Florida 9-11 as -162+ faves; Toronto 1-6 as +137+ dogs.
Puck Line: FLA covers 4-2 home; TOR 7-4 PL road dogs.
Total (O/U): Overs 13/24 FLA/18/25 TOR; H2H avg. 6.2 (6/10 over).
Trends: Florida 5-5 last 10; Toronto 3-7 ATS road.
Game Odds
Toronto Maple Leafs 6.5
Florida Panthers – 153
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, December 1, 2025
