Game Details
- Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET (4:00 PM PT)
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
- Broadcast: NHL Network, SNO, CBC, The Spot, MSG-B
This Atlantic Division matchup sees the Tampa Bay Lightning facing the Toronto Maple Leafs in a game with playoff implications. The Lightning, atop the division, aim to snap a four-game losing streak and extend their season series lead, while the Maple Leafs look to climb the standings amid a six-game skid.
Recent Team Forms
The Lightning have cooled off after a strong start, while the Maple Leafs are in a deep slump, struggling defensively.
Tampa Bay Lightning (5-5 in last 10 games): Tampa Bay averages 3.1 goals per game in their last 10 but has allowed 3.9, shooting 32.4 shots per game with a 20.5% power play. They’ve lost four straight, trending under in 5 of their last 7. Key recent results:
- Mar 5 @ WPG: L 1-4 (Nikita Kucherov: 1 A)
- Mar 3 @ MIN: L 1-5
- Feb 28 vs. BUF: L 2-6
- Feb 26 @ CAR: L 4-5
- Feb 25 vs. TOR: W 4-2 (Kucherov: 1 G, 1 A)
- Feb 22 @ OTT: W 5-3
- Feb 20 vs. NSH: W 4-3 (OT)
- Feb 18 @ CBJ: W 3-2
- Feb 15 vs. ANA: W 6-1
- Feb 13 @ LAK: L 2-4
Tampa Bay has gone under in 5 of their last 7 and is 3-7 ATS in that span, struggling on the road (1-3 in last 4 away).
Toronto Maple Leafs (3-7 in last 10 games): Toronto averages 2.7 goals per game in their last 10 while allowing 3.8, with poor special teams (18.2% PP, 78.6% PK). They’re on a six-game losing streak, trending under in 6 of their last 7. Key recent results:
- Mar 5 @ NYR: L 2-6 (Auston Matthews: 1 G)
- Mar 4 @ NJD: L 3-4 (SO)
- Mar 2 vs. PHI: L 2-3
- Feb 28 vs. OTT: L 2-5
- Feb 26 @ FLA: L 1-5
- Feb 25 @ TBL: L 2-4
- Feb 22 vs. DET: W 3-2 (OT)
- Feb 20 @ ARI: W 4-3
- Feb 18 vs. STL: W 5-2
- Feb 15 @ VGK: L 3-6
Toronto has gone under in 6 of their last 7 and is 2-8 ATS in that span.
Injury Report
Injuries hit both teams hard, with Tampa Bay missing depth forwards and Toronto without a key defenseman.
Tampa Bay Lightning:
- Gage Goncalves (C): Day-to-Day (Lower Body; missed recent games, out at least until Mar 7)
- Dominic James (C): IR (Lower Body/Leg; out 8-10 weeks post-surgery)
- Nick Paul (LW): IR-LT (Undisclosed/Lower Body; out until at least Mar 12)
- Max Crozier (D): IR (Abdomen/Core Muscle; out indefinitely)
Toronto Maple Leafs:
- Chris Tanev (D): Out For Season (Abdomen/Core Muscle; surgery, expected back for training camp)
- Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D): Day-to-Day (Not Injury Related)
- Scott Laughton (C): Day-to-Day (Not Injury Related)
- Tyson Foerster (RW): Out (Arm; indefinite)
- Rodrigo Abols (C): Out (Ankle/Fractured; indefinite)
Key Player Matchups
This game features star power on both sides, with Tampa Bay’s offense clashing against Toronto’s top line. Special teams could decide, given both teams’ PP/PK rankings.
- Nikita Kucherov (TBL, RW) vs. Auston Matthews (TOR, C): Kucherov (projected 40+ goals, 1-2—3 vs. TOR this season) leads Tampa’s attack with playmaking and shots. Matthews (26 G, 26 A) anchors Toronto’s scoring but must defend Kucherov’s speed; Matthews has 1 G in recent losses.
- Brayden Point (TBL, C) vs. Mitch Marner (TOR, RW): Point (2-1—3 vs. TOR) thrives in high-danger areas. Marner (playmaker, 20+ assists) must disrupt Point’s vision while adding offense; this matchup controls the neutral zone.
- Victor Hedman (TBL, D) vs. William Nylander (TOR, RW): Hedman (high TOI, defensive anchor) faces Nylander (21 G, 37 A), who leads Toronto in scoring. Hedman’s size vs. Nylander’s agility tests Tampa’s blue line.
Other notables: Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL G: .916 SV% career vs. TOR) vs. Anthony Stolarz (TOR G: recent struggles); Jake Guentzel (TBL) vs. Morgan Rielly (TOR) for secondary scoring.
Series History
Tampa Bay holds a 48-56-13 all-time record against Toronto (including playoffs 6-7), with a 27-32-1-6 road mark. Recent seasons favor the Lightning, who are 6-4 in the last 10 meetings. Key recent results:
- Feb 25, 2026: TBL 4-2 vs. TOR
- Dec 8, 2025: TBL 0-2 vs. TOR (last Leafs win)
- Apr 3, 2024: TBL 4-1 vs. TOR
- Mar 19, 2024: TOR 1-4 @ TBL
Tampa Bay is 4-1 in the last five, with overs hitting in 6 of the last 10.
Betting Trends
- Puck Line: Lightning 36-23 ATS overall (18-11 away); Leafs have covered +1.5 in 6 of last 7 as underdogs.
- Total: Over has hit in 26 of Lightning’s 60 games and 36 of Leafs’ games.
- ATS Trends: Lightning 5-5 ATS last 10; Leafs 2-8 ATS last 10. Lightning 7-3 ATS vs. Atlantic foes; Leafs 5-17 SU in last 22 in 4-in-6 spots.
Game Odds
Tampa Bay Lightning – 180
Toronto Maple Leafs 6.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, March 6, 2026
