The Tampa Bay Lightning, surging with a five-game win streak, invade UBS Arena to face a New York Islanders squad clinging to wildcard hopes amid a frustrating home stretch. This Metropolitan Division clash—featuring two of the East’s most battle-tested cores—promises playoff-like intensity, with Tampa’s lethal power play (27.1%, 4th in NHL) testing the Isles’ stingy penalty kill (82.3%, 8th). Injuries have forced both teams into lineup tinkering, but expect Nikita Kucherov and Bo Horvat to anchor a high-stakes duel where transition play and third-period execution could swing the result. Tampa eyes a season sweep; New York needs points to stay afloat.
Game Information
Puckdrop: 7:00 p.m. ET (puck drop)
Venue: UBS Arena, Elmont, New York (capacity: 17,250; home of the Islanders since 2021)
Broadcast: MSG+ (Islanders local), Bally Sports Sun (Lightning local), NHL Network, ESPN+
Series Context: Third meeting of the 2025-26 season (Tampa leads 2-0: 5-2 W on Oct. 19, 4-3 OT W on Nov. 25); teams split last year’s series 2-2.
Injury Report
Both rosters are nicked up, with New York’s forward depth and Tampa’s blue line feeling the strain. The Isles’ absences amplify reliance on their top-six, while Lightning coach Jon Cooper shuffles pairings.
| Team | Player | Position | Status | Injury/Details | Estimated Return |
| Lightning | Anthony Cirelli | C | Out | Lower Body | Dec. 20 (IR since Dec. 6; 5G, 12A in 25GP) |
| Lightning | Conor Geekie | C | Out | Upper Body | Dec. 18 (IR; rookie limited to 10GP) |
| Lightning | JJ Moser | D | Questionable | Lower Body | Game-time (day-to-day after block vs. BOS Dec. 11) |
| Lightning | Andrei Vasilevskiy | G | Out | Illness | Dec. 15 (missed last two; Jonas Johansson in net) |
| Islanders | Mathew Barzal | C | Out | Upper Body | Dec. 27 (IR since Nov. 28; 7G, 18A in 22GP) |
| Islanders | Adam Pelech | D | Out | Upper Body | Dec. 22 (IR since Dec. 4; anchors shutdown pair) |
| Islanders | Semyon Varlamov | G | Out | Lower Body | Jan. 3 (IR since Nov. 15; Ilya Sorokin starts) |
| Islanders | Simon Holmstrom | RW | Questionable | Undisclosed | Game-time (practiced Dec. 12) |
| Islanders | Casey Cizikas | C | Out | Lower Body | Dec. 19 (IR; faceoff specialist) |
Tampa’s crease is vulnerable without Vasilevskiy (.925 SV% leader), leaning on Johansson (3.45 GAA). New York’s middle-six scoring dips sans Barzal, forcing Kyle Palmieri into top-line minutes.
Key Player Matchups
Projected lines from morning skates emphasize Tampa’s rush vs. New York’s cycle game. Kucherov-Hedman duo vs. Horvat-Dobson anchors the spotlight.
Lightning Top Line (Kucherov – Point – Stamkos) vs. Islanders Top Line (Horvat – Nelson – Palmieri): Nikita Kucherov (23G, 52P in 31GP) is a Hart contender, with 12P in last 8 road games; Brayden Point (18G) adds two-way zip. They challenge Bo Horvat (14G, 28P), who’s elevated sans Barzal, and Brock Nelson (clutch OT hero). Edge: Lightning’s firepower, but Horvat’s faceoff edge (53.8%) wins draws.
Lightning Second Line (Guentzel – Cirelli – Killorn) vs. Islanders Second Line (Lee – Pageau – Lee): Adjusted for Cirelli’s absence—Jake Guentzel (17G post-trade) slots up with Alex Killorn. New York counters with Anders Lee (15G, power forward) and Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s checking. Edge: Isles’ physicality in board battles.
Goalie Duel: Jonas Johansson (Lightning) vs. Ilya Sorokin (Islanders): Johansson (5-2-1, 2.85 GAA, .910 SV%) steps up with 2 straight wins; faces Isles’ shot suppression (26.2/game). Sorokin (10-8-2, 2.62 GAA, .918 SV%) owns Tampa (3-1-0 lifetime, 1.75 GAA). Edge: Sorokin at home, low-event tilt potential.
Special teams: Lightning PP (27.1%) vs. Isles PK (82.3%); Isles PP (19.2%) middling against Tampa’s 84.1% PK (5th).
Team Records and Standings
Tampa Bay Lightning: 18-11-2 (38 points, 3rd in Atlantic Division; 9-6-1 on road). Advanced stats: 5th in GF/G (3.42), 12th in GA/G (2.94), +0.48 diff (8th).
New York Islanders: 18-11-3 (39 points, 4th in Metropolitan Division; 10-4-2 at home). Advanced stats: 15th in GF/G (3.05), 10th in GA/G (2.88), +0.17 diff (12th).
Tampa’s road OT prowess (4-1) meets Isles’ home shutout defense (4 in last 10).
Recent Team Forms
Tampa extends its streak with a 4-1 road win over Boston on Dec. 11 (Kucherov 2G, Johansson 28 saves), dominating 5v5 (18-8 shots). Prior: 3-2 W at DET (Dec. 9; Point GWG), 5-3 W vs. MTL (Dec. 7), 4-2 W at FLA (Dec. 5). Last 10: 8-2-0 (3.6 GF/G, 2.4 GA/G), winners of 5 straight—best run since 2022 Cup.
New York stumbles after a 2-1 home OT loss to Carolina on Dec. 11 (Sorokin 32 saves; outshot 33-24). Before: 3-2 W vs. WSH (Dec. 9; Horvat 2G), 4-3 SO L vs. PIT (Dec. 7), 1-0 W vs. BUF (Dec. 5). Last 10: 6-3-1 (2.9 GF/G, 2.5 GA/G), but 2-3-0 in last 5 with OT losses in 2.
| Last 5 Games | Lightning Record | Key Stat | Islanders Record | Key Stat |
| @ BOS (Dec 11) | W 4-1 | 29 SOG, Kucherov 2G | vs. CAR (Dec 11) | L 1-2 (OT) |
| @ DET (Dec 9) | W 3-2 | 31 SOG, Point GWG | vs. WSH (Dec 9) | W 3-2 |
| vs. MTL (Dec 7) | W 5-3 | 35 SOG, 2/4 PP | vs. PIT (Dec 7) | L 3-4 (SO) |
| @ FLA (Dec 5) | W 4-2 | 27 SOG, Stamkos 2A | vs. BUF (Dec 5) | W 1-0 |
| vs. VAN (Dec 3) | W 6-4 | 32 SOG, 3/5 PP | @ TOR (Dec 3) | W 4-3 |
Series History
Since 2000, Tampa holds a 58-44-11 edge in regular-season play (113 games, avg. 6.2 goals). Lightning dominate lately: 8-2 in last 10, including two 2025 wins. At UBS Arena (since 2021): Even at 3-3-1. Overs hit 7-3 in last 10 (high-event trend), but unders 4-2 since arena opened. Playoffs: Lightning 8-4 (2020-21 ECF wins).
Betting Trends
Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+185); Islanders +1.5 (-230). Isles 5-5 ATS last 10 home.
Total: 6.0 (Over -110 / Under -110). Overs 7-3 in H2H; 6-4 in TBL’s last 10 road.
Trends: Lightning 7-3 SU in last 10 vs. Isles; NYI 4-6 as home dogs. Public: 60% on Over 6.0. Sharp: Lightning ML (line ticked up).
Game Odds
Tampa Bay Lightning – 130
New York Islanders 5.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, December 12, 2025
