The Tampa Bay Lightning (16-10-2) aim to snap a three-game skid against a Toronto Maple Leafs (13-11-4) squad that’s stumbled in a shootout loss to Montreal on Saturday, capping a rollercoaster stretch of three wins in four. Tampa, clinging to third in the Atlantic Division with a +15 goal differential, has been outscored 8-3 across losses to the Islanders (twice) and Penguins, exposing goaltending woes without Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Leafs, fourth in the Atlantic, boast a potent offense (3.39 GF/G, 5th in NHL) led by Auston Matthews’ 85 shots but rank 23rd in GA/G (3.29), vulnerable at home (8-4-4). This Atlantic rivalry at Scotiabank Arena—where Toronto went 4-0 against Tampa last season—pits the Lightning’s road resilience (8-3-2) against the Leafs’ special teams edge (14.1% PP, 81.5% PK). Expect a gritty, high-stakes affair as both chase momentum before Tampa’s back-to-back finale in Montreal.
Game Details
Puckdrop: 7:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario (capacity: 19,800)
Broadcast: NHL Network, Sportsnet (Toronto), Bally Sports Sun (Tampa Bay)
This divisional clash opens Monday’s slate, with Toronto kicking off a five-game homestand and Tampa starting a four-game road trip. The Leafs’ fans have powered 3.5 GF/G in home wins, but the Lightning’s physicality could turn it into a playoff-like grind.
Injury Report
Injuries plague both netminders, forcing backups into spotlight duels that could decide a low-scoring tilt. Tampa’s absences hit their blue line and star power, while Toronto’s goaltending carousel continues amid a rash of defensive tweaks—totaling 98 man-games lost league-wide for the Leafs.
| Team | Player | Position | Status | Injury | Estimated Return | Notes |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Nikita Kucherov | RW | Day-to-Day (Doubtful) | Undisclosed | December 8 | Team-high 34P (12G-22A) in 25GP; missed Saturday—major offensive void if out. |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Andrei Vasilevskiy | G | Out | Undisclosed | December 10 | Starter (11-6-2, .917 SV%); Jonas Johansson (2.85 GAA in relief) starts back-to-back. |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Erik Cernak | D | Out | Undisclosed | December 13 | Shutdown defender (0G-4A in 19GP); +5 rating—exposes third pair. |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Ryan McDonagh | D | Out | Undisclosed | December 9 | Veteran (3G-3A in 15GP); heavy minutes eater, return imminent. |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Conor Geekie | C | Day-to-Day | Undisclosed | December 8 | Prospect (limited NHL time); practiced but status unclear. |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Anthony Stolarz | G | Out | Upper Body | December 13 | Backup (6-5-1, .917 SV% in 13GP); Dennis Hildeby or Artur Akhtyamov in net. |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Joseph Woll | G | Out | Lower Body | January 1 | Starter option (2.30 GAA); sidelined since early December—goaltending crisis. |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Marshall Rifai | D | Out | Wrist | TBD | Depth piece; no games played this season. |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Brandon Carlo | D | Out | Lower Body | December 12 | Acquired blueliner (0G-2A in 18GP); key for physicality. |
Impact: Tampa’s D is thin without Cernak/McDonagh, forcing Victor Hedman into 28+ minutes; Kucherov’s status clouds top-line scoring. Toronto’s netminders are green (Hildeby: 14 NHL games), ripe for Tampa’s rush (27.4 SOG/G).
Key Player Matchups
With stars potentially sidelined, depth and goaltending duels take center stage. Tampa’s forecheck vs. Toronto’s transition—power plays (TBL 15.9%, TOR 14.1%) could swing it.
Brayden Point (TBL, C) vs. Auston Matthews (TOR, C): Point (team-high 15G) drives even-strength (53% faceoffs); Matthews (85 SOG) hunts goals but -2 rating lately. Point’s two-way vs. Matthews’ shot. Edge: Even—star power clash.
Nikita Kucherov (TBL, RW, if active) vs. William Nylander (TOR, RW): Kucherov (34P) dazzles if plays; Nylander (21A) thrives on PP (team-high). Kucherov’s creativity edges. Edge: Kucherov.
Mikhail Sergachev (TBL, D) vs. Mitch Marner (TOR, RW): Sergachev (+6) quarterbacks transitions; Marner (18A) sets up plays (team-high 6 PPG). Sergachev’s mobility neutralizes. Edge: Sergachev.
Goalie Duel: Jonas Johansson (TBL) vs. Dennis Hildeby (TOR): Johansson (5-4-0, .896 SV% in starts) steady in relief; Hildeby (limited NHL: .917 SV% projected) faces pressure. Edge: Johansson—experience.
Projected Lines (Subject to change):
Lightning: Guentzel-Point-Kucherov (if active) | Cirelli-Hagel-Bjorkstrand | Paul-James-Holmberg | Girgensons-Gourde-Perbix | Hedman-Sergachev | Cernak-McDonagh (if active)
Maple Leafs: Matthews-Marner-Nylander | Tavares-Domi-Knies | Bertuzzi-Dewar-Jarnkrok | McMann-Lorentz-Veleno | Rielly-Brodie | Ekman-Larsson-Liljegren
Team Records and Standings
| Team | Record | Points | Goal Diff. | Home/Away | Division Rank |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 16-10-2 | 34 | +15 | 8-7-0 Home / 8-3-2 Away | 3rd Atlantic |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 13-11-4 | 30 | +3 | 8-4-4 Home / 5-7-0 Away | 4th Atlantic |
Lightning rank 10th GF/G (3.14), 5th GA/G (2.61), 86.7% PK; Leafs 5th GF/G (3.39), 23rd GA/G (3.29), 81.5% PK.
Recent Team Forms
Tampa’s skid masks strong underlying metrics (58% Corsi), while Toronto’s SO loss ended a three-game win streak fueled by road grit.
Lightning Last 5 Games (2-3-0):
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Notes |
| Dec. 6 | vs. NYI | L 2-0 | Johansson 28 saves; shutout ends streak. |
| Dec. 4 | vs. PIT | L 4-3 | Hagel GWG too late; 35 SOG. |
| Dec. 2 | @ NYI | L 2-1 | Vasilevskiy pulled; low-event loss. |
| Nov. 29 | vs. NYR | W 4-2 | Point 2G; PP clicks (2/4). |
| Nov. 28 | @ DET | W 5-1 | Offensive barrage; 32 SOG. |
Maple Leafs Last 5 Games (3-1-1):
| Date | Opponent | Result | Key Notes |
| Dec. 6 | vs. MTL | L 1-2 (SO) | Hildeby 34 saves; clutch SO loss. |
| Dec. 4 | @ CAR | W 5-1 | Matthews hat trick; dominant road. |
| Dec. 2 | @ FLA | W 4-1 | Nylander 2G; PK 3/3. |
| Nov. 30 | @ PIT | W 7-2 | Offensive explosion; 3 PP goals. |
| Nov. 28 | @ WSH | L 4-2 | Defensive lapses; 22 SOG. |
Lightning 7-3-0 L10 (3.0 GF/G); Leafs 5-3-2 L10 (3.4 GF/G).
Series History
These Atlantic rivals have met 123 times (regular + playoffs), with Toronto holding a 66-39-10-7 edge overall (59.5% win rate), including 55-32-10-5 in regular season (59.8%). Leafs lead at home (36-16-5-2), outscoring Tampa 418-368 all-time. Recent dominance: Toronto 4-0 last season (outscored TBL 19-11), including 6-5 and 5-2 wins. Lightning own playoff history (2-0 series wins: 2020 ECF 4-3, 2022 ECSF 4-3), but no meetings since. Average: 6.2 goals/game.
Betting Trends
Puck Line: TOR covers 45% as home faves.
Total (O/U): 6.5 (Over +110; Under -130 to -134) – Under 6-3 in TBL’s L9 road; H2H Over 7-3 L10.
Trends: Leafs 4-0 SU last 4 H2H; Lightning 0-3 SU L3 overall. TOR 3-7 ATS as -110 faves.
Game Odds
Tampa Bay Lightning – 125
Toronto Maple Leafs 6.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, December 7, 2025
