NHL Game Preview: Florida Panthers (16-13-2) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (18-11-3)

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Tampa Bay Lightning logo

The Florida Panthers (16-13-2), defending Stanley Cup champions clinging to fifth in the Atlantic Division, travel across the state to face the Tampa Bay Lightning (18-11-3) in a heated Battle of Florida rivalry game on Monday night. Both teams enter banged up—Florida without captain Aleksander Barkov and star Matthew Tkachuk, Tampa missing Victor Hedman and potentially Andrei Vasilevskiy—setting up a gritty, physical affair where depth and special teams could decide the outcome. Tampa seeks to extend its season-series lead (1-0) and solidify second place, while Florida aims to snap a mini-road skid. With Nikita Kucherov torching nets and Brad Marchand providing agitator energy, expect fireworks in a matchup averaging 6.2 goals historically. Faceoff is at 7:00 p.m. ET from Benchmark International Arena, airing on NHL Network, Scripps Sports, and The Spot.

Venue Location

Benchmark International Arena
401 Channelside Dr
Tampa, FL 33602
The Lightning’s home since 1996 (formerly Amalie Arena), this 19,092-seat waterfront fortress is a cauldron for rivalries, where Tampa boasts an 8-7-0 home record. The sultry Florida air and passionate crowds amplify physical play, with opponents held to 2.8 goals per game here.

Puckdrop: 7:00 p.m. ET (4:00 p.m. PT)

Broadcast: NHL Network (national), Scripps Sports (Panthers local), The Spot (Lightning local), TVAS (French), NBA League Pass alternative streams

Injury Report

Injuries have decimated both rosters, with Florida’s top line gutted and Tampa’s blue line thin. The official NHL injury report (as of 4 p.m. ET) shows:

TeamPlayerStatusInjury/ReasonEstimated Return
PanthersAleksander BarkovOutKnee (Surgery)Jan 2026
Matthew TkachukOutGroin (IR-NR)Dec 15 (Questionable)
Tomas NosekOutKnee (IR-NR)Mid-Dec 2025
Jonah GadjovichOutUpper BodyTBD
Dmitry KulikovOutUpper Body (Surgery)March 2026
Cole SchwindtOutArm (IR)Jan 2026
LightningVictor HedmanOutElbow (Surgery)Feb 1, 2026
Erik CernakOutUndisclosed (IR-LT)Dec 31, 2025
Andrei VasilevskiyQuestionableUndisclosed (IR)Dec 15
Ryan McDonaghOutUndisclosed (IR)TBD
Emil LillebergDay-to-DayUndisclosedDec 15

Barkov and Tkachuk’s absences (combined 50+ points) force Florida to lean on Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart. Vasilevskiy’s potential return (after six missed games) is huge for Tampa; if out, Jonas Johansson steps in (2.53 GAA).

Key Player Matchups

With stars sidelined, this tilts to secondary scorers and goaltending. Tampa’s power play (22.4%, 4th) vs. Florida’s PK (82.2%, 18th) looms large, while physicality in the crease could spark ejections.

Brad Marchand (FLA LW) vs. Nikita Kucherov (TBL RW)
Marchand (18G, 16A; team-high 34P) thrives as agitator and finisher, drawing penalties (1.2 PIM/GP). Kucherov (13G, 29A; 42P, league-leading assists) dissects defenses with one-timers. Edge: Kucherov—his 21-27—48 career vs. FLA exploits Marchand’s aggression; expect 1.5+ points.

Sam Reinhart (FLA RW) vs. Brayden Point (TBL C)
Reinhart (15G, 15A) fills the void with sniping (18.7% PP), facing Point (12G, 20A; elite two-way). Edge: Point—his speed neutralizes Reinhart’s positioning; Point’s +15 rating shines in rivalry chaos.

Seth Jones (FLA D) vs. Jake Guentzel (TBL LW)
Jones (5G, 12A; shutdown D) battles Guentzel (15G, 18A; 33P), Tampa’s sniper on the rush. Edge: Guentzel—15 road goals this year overwhelm Jones’ mobility issues post-injury.

Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA G) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy/Jonas Johansson (TBL G)
Bobrovsky (13-8-1, 2.84 GAA, .886 SV%) faces Vasilevskiy (11-6-2, 2.31 GAA, .917 SV% if back) or Johansson (6-5, 2.53 GAA). Edge: Vasilevskiy—18-15-1 career vs. FLA (.912 SV%); his return tips the scales.

Bonus Prop Watch: Kucherov Over 1.5 Points (-120) and Marchand Over 0.5 Goals (+195) hit in 65% of rivalry games.

Team Records

TeamOverall RecordHome/AwayDivisionConferenceStreak
Panthers16-13-210-6-2 Home / 6-7-0 Away5-5-110-9-1W1
Lightning18-11-38-7-0 Home / 10-4-3 Away6-3-111-6-2L1

Florida ranks 12th in goals (3.13 GF/GP) but 20th defensively (3.16 GA/GP). Tampa is 5th offensively (3.25 GF/GP) and 10th on PK (85.4%).

Recent Team Forms

Florida’s 4-1 run masks injuries, with high-event wins fueling momentum. Tampa’s inconsistency (2-3 last five) stems from defensive absences, but home games average 3.8 GF.

Florida Panthers Last 5 Games (4-1-0):

DateOpponentResultKey Stats
Dec 13@ DALW 4-0Marchand: 2G; Bobrovsky: 19 SV, shutout
Dec 11@ COLL 2-6Reinhart: 1G; 42 SA faced
Dec 10@ UTAW 4-3Verhaeghe: GWG; 36 SOG
Dec 7vs. NYIW 4-1Lundell: 2A; Tarasov: 21 SV
Dec 6vs. CBJW 7-6 OTMarchand: 2G, 1A; 40 SOG

Tampa Bay Lightning Last 5 Games (2-3-0):

DateOpponentResultKey Stats
Dec 13@ NYIL 2-3 SORaddysh: 1G; Johansson: 15 SV
Dec 11@ NJDW 8-4Guentzel: 2G, 2A; 35 SOG
Dec 9@ TORL 0-2Shutout loss; 29 SOG
Dec 9@ MTLW 6-1Kucherov: 2G, 1A; 27 SOG
Dec 6vs. NYIL 0-2Shutout; 19 SOG

Averages: Panthers 4.4 GF/GP (last five), Lightning 3.2 GA/GP at home.

Series History

All-time, Florida holds a slim edge (89-64-10-19 overall, including playoffs), but Tampa leads recent regular-season tilts (7-3 last 10). Playoff series tied 2-2, with Florida’s 2023 ECF upset (4-2) fueling bad blood.

This season: Lightning lead 1-0

Nov 15, 2025: Lightning 3-1 @ Panthers (Zemgus Girgensons GWG; Vasilevskiy: 22 SV)

Tampa is 42-28-12 all-time at home vs. Florida, winning 60% of games by 2+ goals. Rivalry averages 6.2 total goals (Over in 55%).

Betting Trends

Key Trends:

Panthers: 10-16-5 ATS overall; 6-7 ATS away; Over in 18/31 (58%); 4-6 SU last 10 vs. TBL.

Lightning: 14-15-3 ATS; 8-7 SU at home; Under in 7/10 home (avg. 5.8 goals); 6-1 SU vs. FLA since 2024.

Head-to-Head: Over in 6/10; Lightning 4-1 SU last 5 home.

Game Odds

Florida Panthers               5.5

Tampa Bay Lightning      – 142

Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, December 14, 2025